Towards a Decision Support Tool for Assessing, Managing and Mitigating Seismic Risk of Electric Power Networks

Recent seismic event worldwide proved how fragile the electric power system can be to seismic events. Decision Support Systems (DSSs) could have a critical role in assessing the seismic risk of electric power networks and in enabling asset managers to test the effectiveness of alternative mitigation strategies and investments on resilience. This paper exemplifies the potentialities of CIPCast, a DSS recently created in the framework of the EU-funded project CIPRNet, to perform such tasks. CIPCast enables to perform risk assessment for Critical Infrastructures (CI) when subjected to different natural hazards, including earthquakes. An ad-hoc customization of CIPCast for the seismic risk analysis and management of electric power networks is featured in this paper. The international literature describes effective and sound efforts towards the creation of software platforms and frameworks for the assessment of seismic risk of electric power networks. None of them, unfortunately, achieved the goal of creating a user-friendly and ready available DDS to be used by asset managers, local authorities and civil protection departments. Towards that and building on the international literature, the paper describes metrics and methods to be integrated within CIPCast for assessing the earthquake-induced physical and functional impacts of the electric power network at component and system level. The paper describes also how CIPCast can inform the service restoration process

An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper

This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014

Decision Support System for smart urban management: resilience against natural phenomena and aerial environmental assessment

A new concept of Decision Support System (DSS) is presented. It is able to account for and support all phases of the risk analysis process: event forecast, prediction of reliable and accurate damage scenarios, estimate of their impact on Critical Infrastructures (CI), estimate of the possible consequences. It also provides an estimate of the consequences in terms of service degradation and of impact on citizens, on urban area and on production activities, essential for the mitigation of the adverse events. It can be used in two different modes, either in an operational mode (on a 24/7 basis) or in a simulation mode to produce risk analysis, setting up synthetic natural hazards and assessing the resulting chain of events (damages, impacts and consequences). Among the various possible external data sources an aerial, drone based one is presented. The system may capture both thermal and visual images of CI, processing them into 3D models or collect chemical pollutants concentrations for the monitoring of dangerous air quality due to catastrophic events such as volcano eruptions or large fires. The obtained models and the chemical data can be easily displayed within the framework of the DSS

Modeling Resilience in Electrical Distribution Networks

Electrical distribution networks deliver a fundamental service to citizens. However, they are still highly vulnerable to natural hazards as well as to cyberattacks; therefore, additional commitment and investments are needed to foster their resilience. Toward that, this paper presents and proposes the use of a complex simulation model, called reconfiguration simulator (RecSIM), enabling to evaluate the effectiveness of resilience enhancement strategies for electric distribution networks and the required resources to implement them. The focus is, in particular, on one specific attribute of resilience, namely, the readiness, i.e., the promptness and efficiency to recover the service functionality after a crisis event by managing and deploying the available resources rapidly and effectively. RecSIM allows estimating how and to what extent technological, topological, and management issues might improve electrical distribution networks’ functionality after the occurrence of accidental faults, accounting for interdependency issues and reconfiguration possibilities. The viability of implementing RecSIM on a real and large urban network is showcased in the paper with reference to the study case of the electrical distribution network (EDN) of Rome city

A comprehensive system for semantic spatiotemporal assessment of risk in urban areas

AbstractRisk assessment of urban areas aims at limiting the impact of harmful events by increasing awareness of their possible consequences. Qualitative risk assessment allows to figure out possible risk situations and to prioritize them, whereas quantitative risk assessment is devoted to measuring risks from data, in order to improve preparedness in case of crisis situations. We propose an automatic approach to comprehensive risk assessment. This leverages on a semantic and spatiotemporal representation of knowledge of the urban area and relies on a software system including: a knowledge base; two components for quantitative and qualitative risk assessments, respectively; and a WebGIS interface. The knowledge base consists of the TERMINUS domain ontology, to represent urban knowledge, and of a geo‐referenced database, including geographical, environmental and urban data as well as temporal data related to the levels of operation of city services. CIPcast DSS is the component devoted to quantitative risk assessment, and WS‐CREAM is the component supporting qualitative risk assessment based on computational creativity techniques. Two case studies concerning the city of Rome (Italy) show how this approach can be used in a real scenario for crisis preparedness. Finally, we discuss issues related to plausibility of risks and objectivity of their assessment

Reviewing qualitative research approaches in the context of critical infrastructure resilience

Modern societies are increasingly dependent on the proper functioning of critical infrastructures (CIs). CIs produce and distribute essential goods or services, as for power transmission systems, water treatment and distribution infrastructures, transportation systems, communication networks, nuclear power plants, and information technologies. Being resilient becomes a key property for CIs, which are constantly exposed to threats that can undermine safety, security, and business continuity. Nowadays, a variety of approaches exist in the context of CIs’ resilience research. This paper provides a state-of-the-art review on the approaches that have a complete qualitative dimension, or that can be used as entry points for semi-quantitative analyses. The study aims to uncover the usage of qualitative research methods through a systematic review based on PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses). The paper identifies four principal dimensions of resilience referred to CIs (i.e., techno-centric, organisational, community, and urban) and discusses the related qualitative methods. Besides many studies being focused on energy and transportation systems, the literature review allows to observe that interviews and questionnaires are most frequently used to gather qualitative data, besides a high percentage of mixed-method research. The article aims to provide a synthesis of literature on qualitative methods used for resilience research in the domain of CIs, detailing lessons learned from such approaches to shed lights on best practices and identify possible future research directions

Protecting Electricity Networks from Natural Hazards

This handbook supports OSCE participating States in better protecting critical electrical energy infrastructure from natural hazards. By providing risk management options, tools and case studies, it is designed as a guide for policy-makers, state authorities, transmission networks operators and regulators in charge of protecting energy networks. In recent years the risk of supra-national power blackouts in the OSCE area causing significant economic losses has increased. One contributing factor is that extreme weather conditions occur more frequently. Another is an increased connectivity of power and telecommunication infrastructures and a higher technical complexity of the grid due to a changing energy mix, leaving industrial and commercial companies, the public and the private sector at risk

Improving resilience in Critical Infrastructures through learning from past events

Modern societies are increasingly dependent on the proper functioning of Critical Infrastructures (CIs). CIs produce and distribute essential goods or services, as for power transmission systems, water treatment and distribution infrastructures, transportation systems, communication networks, nuclear power plants, and information technologies. Being resilient, where resilience denotes the capacity of a system to recover from challenges or disruptive events, becomes a key property for CIs, which are constantly exposed to threats that can undermine safety, security, and business continuity. Nowadays, a variety of approaches exists in the context of CIs’ resilience research. This dissertation starts with a systematic review based on PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) on the approaches that have a complete qualitative dimension, or that can be used as entry points for semi-quantitative analyses. The review identifies four principal dimensions of resilience referred to CIs (i.e., techno-centric, organizational, community, and urban) and discusses the related qualitative or semi-quantitative methods. The scope of the thesis emphasizes the organizational dimension, as a socio-technical construct. Accordingly, the following research question has been posed: how can learning improve resilience in an organization? Firstly, the benefits of learning in a particular CI, i.e. the supply chain in reverse logistics related to the small arms utilized by Italian Armed Forces, have been studied. Following the theory of Learning From Incidents, the theoretical model helped to elaborate a centralized information management system for the Supply Chain Management of small arms within a Business Intelligence (BI) framework, which can be the basis for an effective decision-making process, capable of increasing the systemic resilience of the supply chain itself. Secondly, the research question has been extended to another extremely topical context, i.e. the Emergency Management (EM), exploring the crisis induced learning where single-loop and double-loop learning cycles can be established regarding the behavioral perspective. Specifically, the former refers to the correction of practices within organizational plans without changing core beliefs and fundamental rules of the organization, while the latter aims at resolving incompatible organizational behavior by restructuring the norms themselves together with the associated practices or assumptions. Consequently, with the aim of ensuring high EM systems resilience, and effective single-loop and double-loop crisis induced learning at organizational level, the study examined learning opportunities that emerge through the exploration of adaptive practices necessary to face the complexity of a socio-technical work domain as the EM of Covid-19 outbreaks on Oil & Gas platforms. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches have been adopted to analyze the resilience of this specific socio-technical system. On this consciousness, with the intention to explore systems theoretic possibilities to model the EM system, the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) has been proposed as a qualitative method for developing a systematic understanding of adaptive practices, modelling planning and resilient behaviors and ultimately supporting crisis induced learning. After the FRAM analysis, the same EM system has also been studied adopting a Bayesian Network (BN) to quantify resilience potentials of an EM procedure resulting from the adaptive practices and lessons learned by an EM organization. While the study of CIs is still an open and challenging topic, this dissertation provides methodologies and running examples on how systemic approaches may support data-driven learning to ultimately improve organizational resilience. These results, possibly extended with future research drivers, are expected to support decision-makers in their tactical and operational endeavors

International Developments in the Field of Unconventional Gas and Oil Extraction: Update 2017

The last few years have witnessed a wealth of studies, reports and assessments being published in many EU member states, by national and international organisations and in the research community on economic, environmental and human health related aspects of unconventional oil and gas exploration and production. Many R&D initiatives are also underway. This report attempts to provide a survey of several of such studies and initiatives, with a focus on the years 2015, 2016 and early 2017. Principally, reports and studies from public bodies and scientific institutes were covered. Additionally, several papers published in peer-reviewed journals were included. A review of the quality of the studies covered, the accuracy of their claims and their possible limitations was not carried out. This report is therefore only meant to provide a compilation of their summaries, without any endorsement of the findings reported in any of the studies and assessments covered in the report.JRC.C.3-Energy Security, Distribution and Market