Towards active conceptual modelling for sudden events

There are a number of issues for information systems which are required to collect data urgently that are not well accommodated by current conceptual modelling methodologies and as a result the modelling step (and the use of databases) is often omitted. Such issues include the fact that • the number of instances for each entity are relatively low resulting in data definition taking a disproportionate amount of effort, • the storage of data and the retrieval of information must take priority over the full definition of a schema describing that data, • they undergo regular structural change and are thus subject to information loss as a result of changes to the schema’s information capacity, • finally, the structure of the information is likely to be only partially known or for which there are multiple, perhaps contradictory, competing hypotheses as to the underlying structure. This paper presents the Low Instance-to-Entity Ratio (LItER) Model, which attempts to circumvent some of the problems encountered by these types of application and to provide a platform and modelling technique to handle rapidly occurring phenomena. The two-part LItER modelling process possesses an overarching architecture which provides hypothesis, knowledge base and ontology support together with a common conceptual schema. This allows data to be stored immediately and for a more refined conceptual schema to be developed later. LItER modelling also aims to facilitate later translation to EER, ORM and UML models and the use of (a form of) SQL. Moreover, an additional benefit of the model is that it provides a partial solution to a number of outstanding issues in current conceptual modelling systems.Sydney, NS

Deferred Action: Theoretical model of process architecture design for emergent business processes

E-Business modelling and ebusiness systems development assumes fixed company resources, structures, and business processes. Empirical and theoretical evidence suggests that company resources and structures are emergent rather than fixed. Planning business activity in emergent contexts requires flexible ebusiness models based on better management theories and models . This paper builds and proposes a theoretical model of ebusiness systems capable of catering for emergent factors that affect business processes. Drawing on development of theories of the ‘action and design’class the Theory of Deferred Action is invoked as the base theory for the theoretical model. A theoretical model of flexible process architecture is presented by identifying its core components and their relationships, and then illustrated with exemplar flexible process architectures capable of responding to emergent factors. Managerial implications of the model are considered and the model’s generic applicability is discussed

Geodetic and seismological observations applied for investigation of subsidence formation in the CSM Mine (Czech Republic)

Purpose. Undermined areas are affected by the creation of subsidence depressions due to long-term underground mining. In general, different geodetic methods are applied to obtain further information needed to determine the spatial development of the formation of a subsidence depression. Methods. Application of these surveying methods enables us to investigate spatio-temporal changes of landscape relief in detail. Although the development of surveying technologies is in progress at present, conventional geodetic methods are still in use. Nowadays Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) surveying is mostly used for obtaining the actual degree of relief affection in undermined areas. Considering that during coal extraction induced seismic events are observed underground and on the surface, some seismological methods for their parameters determination were applied, e.g. foci location of induced seismic events, their classification by units of magnitude and by released seismic energy, frequency energy distribution, construction of Benioff graph and its derivation for assessment of adjacent working endangerment. Findings. The results of the assessment and analyses of spatial data demonstrate the real development of the sub-sidence depression under study and the relief changes of the landscape during the investigated period, respectively. Originality. It was recognized that all methods applied in this study represent very helpful tools for surveying subsidence depression and simultaneous monitoring of seismic activity development on an undermined area. Practical implications. Based on obtained results it is possible to perform a comparison of current subsidence dimensions with the original rate of affection.Мета. Дослідження причин утворення просідань земної поверхні в околиці шахти CSM (Чеська Республіка) за допомогою геодезичних і сейсмологічних методів спостереження. Методика. В роботі використано сейсмічні методи для визначення локалізації місць явищ техногенної сейсмічності, їх класифікації за магнітудами і кількістю виділеної сейсмічної енергії та її частотного розподілу; побудову графіка Беньофа та його модифікацію для оцінки безпеки суміжних до шахти територій; моделювання просторово-часового розвитку опускання поверхні за допомогою GPS-вимірювань. Результати. У результаті оцінки та аналізу просторових даних була визначена реальна область просідань і зміни навколишнього рельєфу протягом всього часу проведення досліджень. Ґрунтуючись на аналізі наявних сейсмічних даних та наземних GPS-вимірювань, встановлено, що протягом досліджуваного періоду ніякого виразного впливу розвитку зсувів і деформацій поверхні через сейсмічну активність не спостерігалося. Виконано моделювання просторово-часового розвитку опускання поверхні у досліджуваній області, що дозволило визначити швидкість осідання поверхні з часом. Визначено горизонтальні переміщення окремих точок і встановлено, що великі тектонічні розломи створюють природний бар’єр зсувам у масиві. Наукова новизна. Використання унікального комплексу методів дослідження та моніторингу, застосовані у даній роботі, дозволили точно виявити область просідання поверхні й причини її утворення, а також здійснити моніторинг сейсмічної активності в районі, порушеному гірничими роботами. Практична значимість. Отримані результати дозволяють порівняти сучасний стан утворених просідань з їх початковими параметрами, а також прогнозувати інтенсивність їх розвитку у часі.Цель. Исследование причин образования проседания земной поверхности в окрестности шахты CSM (Чешская Республика) при помощи геодезических и сейсмологических методов наблюдения. Методика. В работе использовано сейсмические методы для определения локализации очагов явлений техногенной сейсмичности, их классификации по магнитудам и количеству выделенной сейсмической энергии и ее частотного распределения; построение графика Беньофа и его модификацию для оценки безопасности прилегающих к шахте территорий; моделирование пространственно-временного развития опускания поверхности при помощи GPS-измерений. Результаты. В результате оценки и анализа пространственных данных была определена реальная область проседаний и изменения окружающего рельефа в течение всего времени проведения исследований. Основываясь на анализе имеющихся сейсмических данных и наземных GPS-измерений, установлено, что в течение исследуемого периода никакого выразительного влияния развития смещений и деформаций поверхности из-за сейсмической активности не наблюдалось. Выполнено моделирование пространственно-временного развития опускания поверхности в исследуемой области, позволившее определить скорость оседания поверхности с течением времени. Определены горизонтальные перемещения отдельных точек и установлено, что крупные тектонические разломы создают естественный барьер смещениям в массиве. Научная новизна. Использование уникального комплекса методов исследования и мониторинга, примененные в данной работе, позволили точно выявить область проседания поверхности и причины ее образования, а также осуществить мониторинг сейсмической активности в районе, затронутом горными работами. Практическая значимость. Полученные результаты позволяют сравнить современное состояние образовавшейся впадины с ее первоначальными параметрами, а также прогнозировать интенсивность ее развития со временем.This article was written in connection with the Project Institute of Clean Technologies for Mining and Utilization of Raw Materials for Energy Use – Sustainability Program (reg. No.CZ.1.05/2.1.00/03.0082 and MSMT LO1406), which is supported by the Research and Development for Innovations Operational Programme financed by the Structural Funds of the European Union and the Czech Republic project for the longterm conceptual development of research organisations (RVO: 68145535). Many thanks to Dr. Karel Holub, emeritus researcher from the Institute of Geonics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, for his helpful comments and advices during preparation of manuscript. R.I.P

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons

Fault-Tolerance by Graceful Degradation for Car Platoons

The key advantage of autonomous car platoons are their short inter-vehicle distances that increase traffic flow and reduce fuel consumption. However, this is challenging for operational and functional safety. If a failure occurs, the affected vehicles cannot suddenly stop driving but instead should continue their operation with reduced performance until a safe state can be reached or, in the case of temporal failures, full functionality can be guaranteed again. To achieve this degradation, platoon members have to be able to compensate sensor and communication failures and have to adjust their inter-vehicle distances to ensure safety. In this work, we describe a systematic design of degradation cascades for sensor and communication failures in autonomous car platoons using the example of an autonomous model car. We describe our systematic design method, the resulting degradation modes, and formulate contracts for each degradation level. We model and test our resulting degradation controller in Simulink/Stateflow

Principles and Concepts of Agent-Based Modelling for Developing Geospatial Simulations

The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded. The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded

A dual process account of creative thinking

This article explicates the potential role played by type 1 thinking (automatic, fast) and type 2 thinking (effortful, logical) in creative thinking. The relevance of Evans's (2007) models of conflict of dual processes in thinking is discussed with regards to creative thinking. The role played by type 1 thinking and type 2 thinking during the different stages of creativity (problem finding and conceptualization, incubation, illumination, verification and dissemination) is discussed. It is proposed that although both types of thinking are active in creativity, the extent to which they are active and the nature of their contribution to creativity will vary between stages of the creative process. Directions for future research to test this proposal are outlined; differing methodologies and the investigation of different stages of creative thinking are discussed. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC