10,769 research outputs found
Modelling tourism demand to Spain with machine learning techniques. The impact of forecast horizon on model selection
This study assesses the influence of the forecast horizon on the forecasting performance of several machine learning techniques. We compare the fo recastaccuracy of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to Neural Network (NN) models, using a linear model as a benchmark. We focus on international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain. The SVR with a Gaussian radial basis function kernel outperforms the rest of the models for the longest forecast
horizons. We also find that machine learning methods improve their
forecasting accuracy with respect to linear models as forecast horizons increase.
This results shows the suitability of SVR for medium and long term
forecasting.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version
Forecasting bus passenger flows by using a clustering-based support vector regression approach
As a significant component of the intelligent transportation system, forecasting bus passenger
flows plays a key role in resource allocation, network planning, and frequency setting. However, it remains
challenging to recognize high fluctuations, nonlinearity, and periodicity of bus passenger flows due to
varied destinations and departure times. For this reason, a novel forecasting model named as affinity
propagation-based support vector regression (AP-SVR) is proposed based on clustering and nonlinear
simulation. For the addressed approach, a clustering algorithm is first used to generate clustering-based
intervals. A support vector regression (SVR) is then exploited to forecast the passenger flow for each
cluster, with the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) for obtaining the optimized parameters. Finally,
the prediction results of the SVR are rearranged by chronological order rearrangement. The proposed model
is tested using real bus passenger data from a bus line over four months. Experimental results demonstrate
that the proposed model performs better than other peer models in terms of absolute percentage error and
mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended that the deterministic clustering technique with stable
cluster results (AP) can improve the forecasting performance significantly.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio
Tourism forecasting using hybrid modified empirical mode decomposition and neural network
Due to the dynamically increasing importance of the tourism industry worldwide, new approaches for tourism demand forecasting are constantly being explored especially in this Big Data era. Hence, the challenge lies in predicting accurate and timely forecast using tourism arrival data to assist governments and policy makers to cater for upcoming tourists. In this study, a modified Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model is proposed. This new approach utilized intrinsic mode functions (IMF) produced via EMD by reconstructing some IMFs through trial and error method, which is referred to in this research as decomposition. The decomposition and the remaining IMF components are then predicted respectively using ANN model. Lastly, the forecasted results of each component are aggregated to create an ensemble forecast for the tourism time series. The data applied in this experiment are monthly tourist arrivals from Singapore and Indonesia from the year 2000 to 2013 whereby the evaluations of the model’s performance are done using two wellknown measures; RMSE and MAPE. Based on the empirical results, the proposed model outperformed both the individual ANN and EMD-ANN models
Application of artificial neural network in market segmentation: A review on recent trends
Despite the significance of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm to
market segmentation, there is a need of a comprehensive literature review and a
classification system for it towards identification of future trend of market
segmentation research. The present work is the first identifiable academic
literature review of the application of neural network based techniques to
segmentation. Our study has provided an academic database of literature between
the periods of 2000-2010 and proposed a classification scheme for the articles.
One thousands (1000) articles have been identified, and around 100 relevant
selected articles have been subsequently reviewed and classified based on the
major focus of each paper. Findings of this study indicated that the research
area of ANN based applications are receiving most research attention and self
organizing map based applications are second in position to be used in
segmentation. The commonly used models for market segmentation are data mining,
intelligent system etc. Our analysis furnishes a roadmap to guide future
research and aid knowledge accretion and establishment pertaining to the
application of ANN based techniques in market segmentation. Thus the present
work will significantly contribute to both the industry and academic research
in business and marketing as a sustainable valuable knowledge source of market
segmentation with the future trend of ANN application in segmentation.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures,3 Table
Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model
This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain, the performance of the proposed model is assessed in a multiple-step-ahead forecasting comparison. The results of the experiment in a multivariate setting show that the Gaussian process regression model significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of a multi-layer perceptron neural network used as a benchmark. The results reveal that incorporating the connections between different markets in the modelling process may prove very useful to refine predictions at a regional level.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft
Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain's regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model
This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain, the performance of the proposed model is assessed in a multiple-step-ahead forecasting comparison. The results of the experiment in a multivariate setting show that the Gaussian process regression model significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of a multi-layer perceptron neural network used as a benchmark. The results reveal that incorporating the connections between different markets in the modelling process may prove very useful to refine predictions at a regional level
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