Prediksi Kunjungan Wisatawan Taman Nasional Gunung Merbabu dengan Time Series Forecasting dan LSTM

Abstract. Prediction of tourist visits of Mount Merbabu National Park (TNGMb) needs to be done to control the number of visitors and to preserve the national park. The combination of time series forecasting (TSF) and deep learning methods has become a new alternative for prediction. This case study was conducted to implement several methods combination of TSF and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the visits. In this case study, there are 18 modelling scenarios as research objects to determine the best model by utilizing tourist visits data from 2013 to 2018. The results show that the model applying the lag time method can improve the model's ability to capture patterns on time series data. The error value is measured using the root mean square error (RMSE), with the smallest value of 3.7 in the LSTM architecture, using seven lags as a feature and one lag as a label.Keywords: Tourist Visit, Taman Nasional Gunung Merbabu, Prediction, Recurrent Neural Network, Long-Short Term MemoryAbstrak. Prediksi kunjungan wisatawan Taman Nasional Gunung Merbabu (TNGMb) perlu dilakukan untul pengendalian jumlah pengunjung dan menjaga kelestarian taman nasional. Gabungan metode antara time series forecasting (TSF) dan deep learning telah menjadi alternatif baru untuk melakukan prediksi. Studi kasus ini dilakukan untuk mengimplementasi gabungan dari beberapa macam metode antara TSF dan Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) untuk memprediksi kunjungan pada TNGMb. Pada studi kasus ini, terdapat 18 skenario pemodelan sebagai objek penelitian untuk menentukan model terbaik, dengan memanfaatkan data jumlah kunjungan wisatawan di TNGMb mulai dari tahun 2013 sampai dengan tahun 2018. Hasil prediksi menunjukkan pemodelan dengan menerapkan metode lag time dapat meningkatakan kemampuan model untuk menangkap pola pada data deret waktu. Besar nilai kesalahan diukur menggunakan root mean square error (RMSE), dengan nilai terkecil sebesar 3,7 pada arsitektur LSTM, menggunakan tujuh lag sebagai feature dan satu lag sebagai label. Kata Kunci: Kunjungan Wisatawan, Taman Nasional Gunung Merbabu, Prediksi, Recurrent Neural Network, Long-Short Term Memor

Convolutional neural networks for modeling and forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes

The object of research. The object of research is modeling and forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes presented in the form of time-series data. Investigated problem. There are several popular approaches to solving the problems of adequate model constructing and forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes, such as autoregressive models and recurrent neural networks. However, each of them has its advantages and drawbacks. Autoregressive models cannot deal with the nonlinear or combined influence of previous states or external factors. Recurrent neural networks are computationally expensive and cannot work with sequences of high length or frequency. The main scientific result. The model for forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes presented in the form of the time series data was built using convolutional neural networks. The current study shows results in which convolutional networks are superior to recurrent ones in terms of both accuracy and complexity. It was possible to build a more accurate model with a much fewer number of parameters. It indicates that one-dimensional convolutional neural networks can be a quite reasonable choice for solving time series forecasting problems. The area of practical use of the research results. Forecasting dynamics of processes in economy, finances, ecology, healthcare, technical systems and other areas exhibiting the types of nonlinear nonstationary processes. Innovative technological product. Methodology of using convolutional neural networks for modeling and forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes presented in the form of time-series data. Scope of the innovative technological product. Nonlinear nonstationary processes presented in the form of time-series data

Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory

Crude oil has an important role in the financial indicators of global markets and economies. The price of crude oil influences the income of a country, both directly and indirectly. This includes affecting the prices of basic needs, transportation, commodities, and many more. Therefore, understanding the future price of crude oil is essential in helping to budgeting and planning for a better economy. The contribution of this research is in finding the best hyperparameters and using early stopping methods in the LSTM model to predict oil prices. This research implemented Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), an artificial neural network that can handle long-term dependencies and the problems of time series data. The LSTM method will be used to predict Brent oil prices on daily and weekly time frames. The experiment has been conducted by tuning some parameters to obtain the best result. From the daily time frame experiment, the model obtained RMSE and MAE of 1.27055 and 0.92827, respectively, while the weekly time frame has RMSE and MAE of 3.37817 and 2.60603, respectively. The results show that the LSTM model can improve to the trends that occur in the original data

Prediksi Kunjungan Wisatawan Taman Nasional Gunung Merbabu dengan Time Series Forecasting dan LSTM

Prediksi kunjungan wisatawan Taman Nasional Gunung Merbabu (TNGMb) perlu dilakukan untul pengendalian jumlah pengunjung dan menjaga kelestarian taman nasional. Gabungan metode antara time series forecasting (TSF) dan deep learning telah menjadi alternatif baru untuk melakukan prediksi. Studi kasus ini dilakukan untuk mengimplementasi gabungan dari beberapa macam metode antara TSF dan Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) untuk memprediksi kunjungan pada TNGMb. Pada studi kasus ini, terdapat 18 skenario pemodelan sebagai objek penelitian untuk menentukan model terbaik, dengan memanfaatkan data jumlah kunjungan wisatawan di TNGMb mulai dari tahun 2013 sampai dengan tahun 2018. Hasil prediksi menunjukkan pemodelan dengan menerapkan metode lag time dapat meningkatakan kemampuan model untuk menangkap pola pada data deret waktu. Besar nilai kesalahan diukur menggunakan root mean square error (RMSE), dengan nilai terkecil sebesar 3,7 pada arsitektur LSTM, menggunakan tujuh lag sebagai feature dan satu lag sebagai labe

FUZZY VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION FOR FORECASTING FARMER EXCHANGE RATE IN CENTRAL JAVA PROVINCE

Computer technology has developed to a very advanced measure. Calculations using complex formulas are no longer an obstacle for industry and researchers. Along with advances in computing technology, the development of fuzzy system models is also experiencing rapid progress. This paper proposes a fuzzy model combined with Vector Autoregression. The fuzzy membership function is built by selecting the median of each set to be the center of the fuzzy set. The function chosen as the membership function is Gaussian. The fuzzy Vector Autoregression model obtained was applied to the Farmer's Exchange Rate in Central Java Province. The accuracy of the model is measured based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results of model trials on FER Central Java in 2014-2020, show a pretty good forecast, namely forecasting with MAPE around 5%, and not exceeding 10%

Parkinson’s diagnosis hybrid system based on deep learning classification with imbalanced dataset

Brain degeneration involves several neurological troubles such as Parkinson’s disease (PD). Since this neurodegenerative disorder has no known cure, early detection has a paramount role in improving the patient’s life. Research has shown that voice disorder is one of the first symptoms detected. The application of deep learning techniques to data extracted from voice allows the production of a diagnostic support system for the Parkinson’s disease detection. In this work, we adopted the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) technique to solve the imbalanced class problems. We performed feature selection, relying on the Chi-square feature technique to choose the most significant attributes. We opted for three deep learning classifiers, which are long-short term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (Bi-LSTM), and deep-LSTM (D-LSTM). After tuning the parameters by selecting different options, the experiment results show that the D-LSTM technique outperformed the LSTM and Bi-LSTM ones. It yielded the best score for both the imbalanced original dataset and for the balanced dataset with accuracy scores of 94.87% and 97.44%, respectively