Time tracking of different cropping patterns using Landsat images under different agricultural systems during 1990-2050 in Cold China

Rapid cropland reclamation is underway in Cold China in response to increases in food demand, while the lack analyses of time series cropping pattern mappings limits our understanding of the acute transformation process of cropland structure and associated environmental effects. The Cold China contains different agricultural systems (state and private farming), and such systems could lead to different cropping patterns. So far, such changes have not been revealed yet. Based on the Landsat images, this study tracked cropping information in five-year increments (1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000-2005, 2005-2010, and 2010-2015) and predicted future patterns for the period of 2020-2050 under different agricultural systems using developed method for determining cropland patterns. The following results were obtained: The available time series of Landsat images in Cold China met the requirements for long-term cropping pattern studies, and the developed method exhibited high accuracy (over 91%) and obtained precise spatial information. A new satellite evidence was observed that cropping patterns significantly differed between the two farm types, with paddy field in state farming expanding at a faster rate (from 2.66 to 68.56%) than those in private farming (from 10.12 to 34.98%). More than 70% of paddy expansion was attributed to the transformation of upland crop in each period at the pixel level, which led to a greater loss of upland crop in state farming than private farming (9505.66 km(2) vs. 2840.29 km(2)) during 1990-2015. Rapid cropland reclamation is projected to stagnate in 2020, while paddy expansion will continue until 2040 primarily in private farming in Cold China. This study provides new evidence for different land use change pattern mechanisms between different agricultural systems, and the results have significant implications for understanding and guiding agricultural system development

Agricultural land systems : modelling past, present and future regional dynamics

This thesis arises from the understanding of how the integration of concepts, tools, techniques, and methods from geographic information science (GIS) can provide a formalised knowledge base for agricultural land systems in response to future agricultural and food system challenges. To that end, this thesis focuses on understanding the potential application of GIS-based approaches and available spatial data sources for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics in Portugal. The specific objectives of this thesis are addressed in seven chapters in Parts II through V, each corresponding to one scientific article that was either published or is being considered for publication in peer-reviewed international scientific journals. In Part II, Chapter 2 summarises the body of knowledge and provides the context for the contribution of this thesis within the scientific domain of agricultural land systems. In Part III, Chapters 3 and 4 explore remotely sensed and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) data, multitemporal and multisensory approaches, and a variety of statistical methods for mapping, quantifying, and assessing regional agricultural land dynamics in the Beja district. In Part IV, Chapters 5–7 explore the CA-Markov model, Markov chain model, machine learning, and model-agnostic approach, as well as a set of spatial metrics and statistical methods for modelling the factors and spatiotemporal changes of agricultural land use in the Beja district. In Part V, Chapter 8 explores an area-weighting GIS-based technique, a spatiotemporal data cube, and statistical methods to model the spatial distribution across time for regional agricultural production in Portugal. The case studies in the thesis contribute practical and theoretical knowledge by demonstrating the strengths and limitations of several GIS-based approaches. Together, the case studies demonstrate the underlying principles that underpin each approach in a way that allows us to infer their potentiality and appropriateness for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics, stimulating further research along this line. Generally, this thesis partly reflects the state-of-art of land-use modelling and contribute significantly to the introduction of advances in agricultural system modelling research and land-system science

Mapping Soil Salinity and Its Impact on Agricultural Production in Al Hassa Oasis in Saudi Arabia

Soil salinity is considered as one of the major environmental issues globally that restricts agricultural growth and productivity, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. One such region is Al Hassa Oasis in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, which is one of the most productive date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) farming regions in Saudi Arabia and is seriously threatened by soil salinity. Development of remote sensing techniques and modelling approaches that can assess and map soil salinity and the associated agricultural impacts accurately and its likely future distribution should be useful in formulating more effective, long-term management plans. The main objective of this study was to detect, assess and map soil salinity and and its impact on agricultural production in the Al Hassa Oasis. The presented research first started by reviewing the related literature that have utilized the use of remote sensing data and techniques to map and monitor soil salinity. This review started by discussing soil salinity indicators that are commonly used to detect soil salinity. Soil salinity can be detected either directly from the spectral reflectance patterns of salt features visible at the soil surface, or indirectly using the vegetation reflectance since it impacts vegetation. Also, it investigated the most commonly used remote sensors and techniques for monitoring and mapping soil salinity in previous studies. Both spectral vegetation and salinity indices that have been developed and proposed for soil salinity detection and mapping have been reviewed. Finally, issues limiting the use of remote sensing for soil salinity mapping, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions have been highlighted. In the second study, broadband vegetation and soil salinity indices derived from IKONOS images along with ground data in the form of soil samples from three sites across the Al Hassa Oasis were used to assess soil salinity in the Al-Hassa Oasis. The effectiveness of these indices to assess soil salinity over a dominant date palm region was examined statistically. The results showed that very strongly saline soils with different salinity level ranges are spread across the three sites in the study area. Among the investigated indices, the Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Normalized Differential Salinity Index (NDSI) and Salinity Index (SI-T) yielded the best results for assessing the soil salinity in densely vegetated area, while NDSI and SI-T revealed the highest significant correlation with salinity for less densely vegetated lands and bare soils. In the third study, combined spectral-based statistical regression models were developed using IKONOS images to model and map the spatial variation of the soil salinity in the Al Hassa Oasis. Statistical correlation between Electrical Conductivity (EC), spectral indices and IKONOS original bands showed that the Salinity Index (SI) and red band (band 3) had the highest correlation with EC. Integrating SI and band 3 into one model produced the best fit with R2 = 0.65. The high performance of this combined model is attributed to: (i) the spatial resolution of the images; (ii) the great potential of SI in enhancing and delineating the spatial variation of soil salinity; and (iii) the superiority of band 3 in retrieving soil salinity features and patterns. Soil salinity maps generated using the selected model showed that strongly saline soils (>16 dS/m) with variable spatial distribution were the dominant class over the study area. The spatial variability of this class over the investigated areas was attributed to a variety factors, including soil factors, management related factors and climate factors.16 dS/m) with variable spatial distribution were the dominant class over the study area. The spatial variability of this class over the investigated areas was attributed to a variety factors, including soil factors, management related factors and climate factors. In the fourth study, Landsat time series data of years 1985, 2000 and 2013 were used to detect the temporal change in soil salinity and vegetation cover in the Al Hassa Oasis and investigate whether there is any linkage of vegetation cover change to the change in soil salinity over a 28-year period. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Soil Salinity Index (SI) differencing images were used to identify vegetation and salinity change/no-change for the two periods. The results revealed that soil salinity during 2000-2013 exhibited much higher increase compared to 1985-2000, while the vegetation cover declined for the same period. Highly significant (p In the fifth study, the effects of physical and proximity factors, including elevation, slope, soil salinity, distance to water, distance to built-up areas, distance to roads, distance to drainage and distance to irrigation factors on agricultural expansion in the Al Hassa Oasis were investigated. A logistic regression model was used for two time periods of agricultural change in 1985 and 2015. The probable agricultural expansion maps based on agricultural changes in 1985 was used to test the performance of the model to predict the probable agricultural expansion after 2015. This was achieved by comparing the probable maps of 1985 and the actual agricultural land of 2015 model. The Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) method was also used and together these two methods were used to validate the developed model. The results showed that the prediction model of 2015 provides a reliable and consistent prediction based on the performance of 1985. The logistic regression results revealed that among the investigated factors, distance to water, distance to built-up areas and soil salinity were the major factors having a significant influence on agricultural expansion. In the last study, the potential distribution of date palm was assessed under current and future climate scenarios of 2050 and 2100. Here, CLIMEX (an ecological niche model) and two different Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), were employed with the A2 emission scenario to model the potential date palm distribution under current and future climates in Saudi Arabia. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the CLIMEX model parameters that had the most influence on date palm distribution. The model was also run with the incorporation of six non-climatic parameters, which are soil taxonomy, soil texture, soil salinity, land use, landform and slopes, to further refine the distributions. The results from both GCMs showed a significant reduction in climatic suitability for date palm cultivation in Saudi Arabia by 2100 due to increment of heat stress. The lower optimal soil moisture, cold stress temperature threshold and wet stress threshold parameters had the greatest impact on sensitivity, while other parameters were moderately sensitive or insensitive to change. A more restricted distribution was projected with the inclusion of non-climatic parameters. Overall, the research demonstrated the potential of remote sensing and modeling techniques for assessing and mapping soil salinity and providing the essential information of its impacts on date palm plantation. The findings provide useful information for land managers, environmental decision makers and governments, which may help them in implementing more suitable adaptation measures, such as the use of new technologies, management practices and new varieties, to overcome the issue of soil salinity and its impact on this important economic crop so that long-term sustainable production of date palm in this region can be achieved. Additionally, the information derived from this research could be considered as a useful starting point for public policy to promote the resilience of agricultural systems, especially for smallholder farmers who might face more challenges, if not total loss, not only due to soil salinity but also due to climate change

Remote sensing analysis of croplands, woody plant encroachment and carbon fluxes of woody savanna

Since 1990s, much attention has been paid to Land use/land cover change (LULCC) studies because it is an important component of global change. The vegetation change is a critical factor of land cover changes, which interacts with climate, ecosystem processes, biogeochemical cycles and biodiversity. Remote sensing is a good tool to detect the changes of land use and land cover. To date, most of studies on vegetation changes have been conducted at biome scales, but have not examined changes at the species level. This lack of studies on species inhibits analysis of ecosystem functions caused by the shifts of vegetation types. This dissertation aims to explore the potential of remote sensing images to produce long-term products on specific vegetation type and study the interactions between vegetation type, climate and gross primary production. In Chapter 2, a simple algorithms was developed to identify paddy rice by selecting a unique temporal window (flooding/transplanting period) at regional scale using time series Landsat-8 images. A wheat-rice double-cropped area from China was selected as the study area. The resultant paddy rice map had overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of 89.8% and 0.79, respectively. In comparison with the National Land Cover Data (China) from 2010, the resultant map had a better detection of the changes in the paddy rice fields. These results demonstrate the efficacy of using images from multiple sources to generate paddy rice maps for two-crop rotation systems. Chapter 3 developed a pixel and phenology-based mapping algorithm, and used it to analyze PALSAR mosaic data in 2010 and all the available Landsat 5/7 data during 1984-2010. This study analyzed 4,233 images covering more than 10 counties in the central region of Oklahoma, and generated eastern redcedar forest maps for 2010 and five historical time periods: the late 1980s (1984-1989), early 1990s (1990-1994), late 1990s (1995-1999), early 2000s (2000-2004), and late 2000s (2005-2010). The resultant maps clearly illustrated an increase in red cedar encroachment within the study area at an annual rate of ~8% during 1984-2010. Chapter 4 investigates the dynamics of juniper encroachment on the grasslands of Oklahoma by generating multi-period maps of juniper encroachment from 1984 to 2010 at a 30-m spatial resolution. The juniper forest maps in 1984 to 2010 were produced by the algorithms developed in Chapter 3. The resultant maps revealed the spatio-temporal dynamics of juniper forest encroachment at state and county scales. This study also characterized the juniper forest encroachment by geographical pattern and soil conditions. The resultant maps can be used to support studies on ecosystem processes, sustainability, and ecosystem services. Chapter 5 compared dynamics of major climatic variables, eddy covariance tower-based GPP, and vegetation indices (VIs) over the last decade in a deciduous savanna and an evergreen savanna under a Mediterranean climate. The relationships were also examined among VIs, GPP, and major climatic variables in dry, normal, and wet hydrological years. GPP of these two savanna sites were also simulated using a light-use efficiency based Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM). The results of this study help better understanding the eco-physiological response of evergreen and deciduous savannas, and also suggest the potential of VPM to simulate interannual variations of GPP in different types of Mediterranean-climate savannas

Chapter 5: Food Security

The current food system (production, transport, processing, packaging, storage, retail, consumption, loss and waste) feeds the great majority of world population and supports the livelihoods of over 1 billion people. Since 1961, food supply per capita has increased more than 30%, accompanied by greater use of nitrogen fertilisers (increase of about 800%) and water resources for irrigation (increase of more than 100%). However, an estimated 821 million people are currently undernourished, 151 million children under five are stunted, 613 million women and girls aged 15 to 49 suffer from iron deficiency, and 2 billion adults are overweight or obese. The food system is under pressure from non-climate stressors (e.g., population and income growth, demand for animal-sourced products), and from climate change. These climate and non-climate stresses are impacting the four pillars of food security (availability, access, utilisation, and stability)

Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in a Changing World

It is increasingly being recognized that land use and land cover changes driven by anthropogenic pressures are impacting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their services, human society, and human livelihoods and well-being. This Special Issue contains 12 original papers covering various issues related to land use and land use changes in various parts of the world (see references), with the purpose of providing a forum to exchange ideas and progress in related areas. Research topics include land use targets, dynamic modelling and mapping using satellite images, pressures from energy production, deforestation, impacts on ecosystem services, aboveground biomass evaluation, and investigations on libraries of legends and classification systems

Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in a Changing World

It is increasingly being recognized that land use and land cover changes driven by anthropogenic pressures are impacting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their services, human society, and human livelihoods and well-being. This Special Issue contains 12 original papers covering various issues related to land use and land use changes in various parts of the world (see references), with the purpose of providing a forum to exchange ideas and progress in related areas. Research topics include land use targets, dynamic modelling and mapping using satellite images, pressures from energy production, deforestation, impacts on ecosystem services, aboveground biomass evaluation, and investigations on libraries of legends and classification systems