Time series analysis of the dynamics of news websites

Abstract-The content of news websites changes frequently and rapidly and its relevance tends to decay with time. To be of any value to the users, tools, such as, search engines, have to cope with these evolving websites and detect in a timely manner their changes. In this paper we apply time series analysis to study the properties and the temporal patterns of the change rates of the content of three news websites. Our investigation shows that changes are characterized by large fluctuations with periodic patterns and time dependent behavior. The time series describing the change rate is decomposed into trend, seasonal and irregular components and models of each component are then identified. The trend and seasonal components describe the daily and weekly patterns of the change rates. Trigonometric polynomials best fit these deterministic components, whereas the class of ARMA models represents the irregular component. The resulting models can be used to describe the dynamics of the changes and predict future change rates

Hoaxy: A Platform for Tracking Online Misinformation

Massive amounts of misinformation have been observed to spread in uncontrolled fashion across social media. Examples include rumors, hoaxes, fake news, and conspiracy theories. At the same time, several journalistic organizations devote significant efforts to high-quality fact checking of online claims. The resulting information cascades contain instances of both accurate and inaccurate information, unfold over multiple time scales, and often reach audiences of considerable size. All these factors pose challenges for the study of the social dynamics of online news sharing. Here we introduce Hoaxy, a platform for the collection, detection, and analysis of online misinformation and its related fact-checking efforts. We discuss the design of the platform and present a preliminary analysis of a sample of public tweets containing both fake news and fact checking. We find that, in the aggregate, the sharing of fact-checking content typically lags that of misinformation by 10--20 hours. Moreover, fake news are dominated by very active users, while fact checking is a more grass-roots activity. With the increasing risks connected to massive online misinformation, social news observatories have the potential to help researchers, journalists, and the general public understand the dynamics of real and fake news sharing.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, submitted to Third Workshop on Social News On the We

Environmental Activism, Social Networks and the Internet

Social networks and the internet both have a substantial individual effect on environmental activism in China. In this article, we speculate that social linking patterns between environmental actors, which often facilitate activism on the ground, may also exist in cyberspace in the form of an online network. The article addresses the following empirical questions. Does such an online network exist? If so, who are the constituent actors? Are these the same actors observed on the ground? In addressing these questions the article aims to contribute to the growing debate on the implications of the internet for the potential emergence of social movements in China

Why does attention to web articles fall with time?

We analyze access statistics of a hundred and fifty blog entries and news articles, for periods of up to three years. Access rate falls as an inverse power of time passed since publication. The power law holds for periods of up to thousand days. The exponents are different for different blogs and are distributed between 0.6 and 3.2. We argue that the decay of attention to a web article is caused by the link to it first dropping down the list of links on the website's front page, and then disappearing from the front page and its subsequent movement further into background. The other proposed explanations that use a decaying with time novelty factor, or some intricate theory of human dynamics cannot explain all of the experimental observations.Comment: To appear in JASIS

Determinants in the on-line distribution of digital content: an exploratory analysis

This article shows the phases – and discusses the results – of an empirical analysis addressing the legal business models that are adopted online to distribute digital content