Measuring information-transfer delays

In complex networks such as gene networks, traffic systems or brain circuits it is important to understand how long it takes for the different parts of the network to effectively influence one another. In the brain, for example, axonal delays between brain areas can amount to several tens of milliseconds, adding an intrinsic component to any timing-based processing of information. Inferring neural interaction delays is thus needed to interpret the information transfer revealed by any analysis of directed interactions across brain structures. However, a robust estimation of interaction delays from neural activity faces several challenges if modeling assumptions on interaction mechanisms are wrong or cannot be made. Here, we propose a robust estimator for neuronal interaction delays rooted in an information-theoretic framework, which allows a model-free exploration of interactions. In particular, we extend transfer entropy to account for delayed source-target interactions, while crucially retaining the conditioning on the embedded target state at the immediately previous time step. We prove that this particular extension is indeed guaranteed to identify interaction delays between two coupled systems and is the only relevant option in keeping with Wiener’s principle of causality. We demonstrate the performance of our approach in detecting interaction delays on finite data by numerical simulations of stochastic and deterministic processes, as well as on local field potential recordings. We also show the ability of the extended transfer entropy to detect the presence of multiple delays, as well as feedback loops. While evaluated on neuroscience data, we expect the estimator to be useful in other fields dealing with network dynamics

Training Echo State Networks with Regularization through Dimensionality Reduction

In this paper we introduce a new framework to train an Echo State Network to predict real valued time-series. The method consists in projecting the output of the internal layer of the network on a space with lower dimensionality, before training the output layer to learn the target task. Notably, we enforce a regularization constraint that leads to better generalization capabilities. We evaluate the performances of our approach on several benchmark tests, using different techniques to train the readout of the network, achieving superior predictive performance when using the proposed framework. Finally, we provide an insight on the effectiveness of the implemented mechanics through a visualization of the trajectory in the phase space and relying on the methodologies of nonlinear time-series analysis. By applying our method on well known chaotic systems, we provide evidence that the lower dimensional embedding retains the dynamical properties of the underlying system better than the full-dimensional internal states of the network

AMENet: Attentive Maps Encoder Network for Trajectory Prediction

Trajectory prediction is critical for applications of planning safe future movements and remains challenging even for the next few seconds in urban mixed traffic. How an agent moves is affected by the various behaviors of its neighboring agents in different environments. To predict movements, we propose an end-to-end generative model named Attentive Maps Encoder Network (AMENet) that encodes the agent's motion and interaction information for accurate and realistic multi-path trajectory prediction. A conditional variational auto-encoder module is trained to learn the latent space of possible future paths based on attentive dynamic maps for interaction modeling and then is used to predict multiple plausible future trajectories conditioned on the observed past trajectories. The efficacy of AMENet is validated using two public trajectory prediction benchmarks Trajnet and InD.Comment: Accepted by ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensin

A Data-driven Model for Interaction-aware Pedestrian Motion Prediction in Object Cluttered Environments

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.Comment: 8 pages, accepted for publication at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201

A Data-driven Model for Interaction-aware Pedestrian Motion Prediction in Object Cluttered Environments

This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments.Comment: 8 pages, accepted for publication at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA) 201

Application of Chaos Theory in the Prediction of Motorised Traffic Flows on Urban Networks

In recent times, urban road networks are faced with severe congestion problems as a result of the accelerating demand for mobility. One of the ways to mitigate the congestion problems on urban traffic road network is by predicting the traffic flow pattern. Accurate prediction of the dynamics of a highly complex system such as traffic flow requires a robust methodology. An approach for predicting Motorised Traffic Flow on Urban Road Networks based on Chaos Theory is presented in this paper. Nonlinear time series modeling techniques were used for the analysis of the traffic flow prediction with emphasis on the technique of computation of the Largest Lyapunov Exponent to aid in the prediction of traffic flow. The study concludes that algorithms based on the computation of the Lyapunov time seem promising as regards facilitating the control of congestion because of the technique’s effectiveness in predicting the dynamics of complex systems especially traffic flow