Characterizations of bivariate conic, extreme value, and Archimax copulas

Based on a general construction method by means of bivariate ultramodular copulas we construct, for particular settings, special bivariate conic, extreme value, and Archimax copulas. We also show that the sets of copulas obtained in this way are dense in the sets of all conic, extreme value, and Archimax copulas, respectively

Copula-based orderings of multivariate dependence

In this paper I investigate the problem of defining a multivariate dependence ordering. First, I provide a characterization of the concordance dependence ordering between multivariate random vectors with fixed margins. Central to the characterization is a multivariate generalization of a well-known bivariate elementary dependence increasing rearrangement. Second, to order multivariate random vectors with non- fixed margins, I impose a scale invariance principle which leads to a copula-based concordance dependence ordering. Finally, a wide family of copula-based measures of dependence is characterized to which Spearmanís rank correlation coefficient belongs.copula, concordance ordering, dependence measures, dependence orderings, multivariate stochastic dominance, supermodular ordering

Copulae: On the Crossroads of Mathematics and Economics

The central focus of the workshop was on copula theory as well as applications to multivariate stochastic modelling. The programme was intrinsically interdisciplinary and represented areas with much recent progress. The workshop included talks and dynamic discussions on construction, estimation and various applications of copulas to finance, insurance, hydrology, medicine, risk management and related fields

Extreme dependence for multivariate data

We present a generalized notion of extreme multivariate dependence between two random vectors which relies on the extremality of the cross-covariance matrix between these two vectors. Using a partial ordering on the cross-covariance matrices, we also generalize the notion of positive upper dependence. We then quantify the strength of dependence between two given multivariate series using an entropic distance to extremally dependent distributions. We apply this method to build indices of exposure to a financial environment, and to do stress-tests on the correlation between two sets of financial variables

Robust risk aggregation with neural networks

We consider settings in which the distribution of a multivariate random variable is partly ambiguous. We assume the ambiguity lies on the level of the dependence structure, and that the marginal distributions are known. Furthermore, a current best guess for the distribution, called reference measure, is available. We work with the set of distributions that are both close to the given reference measure in a transportation distance (e.g. the Wasserstein distance), and additionally have the correct marginal structure. The goal is to find upper and lower bounds for integrals of interest with respect to distributions in this set. The described problem appears naturally in the context of risk aggregation. When aggregating different risks, the marginal distributions of these risks are known and the task is to quantify their joint effect on a given system. This is typically done by applying a meaningful risk measure to the sum of the individual risks. For this purpose, the stochastic interdependencies between the risks need to be specified. In practice the models of this dependence structure are however subject to relatively high model ambiguity. The contribution of this paper is twofold: Firstly, we derive a dual representation of the considered problem and prove that strong duality holds. Secondly, we propose a generally applicable and computationally feasible method, which relies on neural networks, in order to numerically solve the derived dual problem. The latter method is tested on a number of toy examples, before it is finally applied to perform robust risk aggregation in a real world instance.Comment: Revised version. Accepted for publication in "Mathematical Finance

Innovations in Quantitative Risk Management

Quantitative Finance; Game Theory, Economics, Social and Behav. Sciences; Finance/Investment/Banking; Actuarial Science