Evolution, Monitoring and Predicting Models of Rockburst: Precursor Information for Rock Failure

Load/unload response ratio predicting of rockburst; Three-dimensional reconstruction of fissured rock; Nonlinear dynamics evolution pattern of rock cracks; Bayesian model for predicting rockburs

Predictability in the ETAS Model of Interacting Triggered Seismicity

As part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity based on interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS). The ETAS model is constructed on a bare (unrenormalized) Omori law, the Gutenberg-Richter law and the idea that large events trigger more numerous aftershocks. For simplicity, we do not use the information on the spatial location of earthquakes and work only in the time domain. We offer an analytical approach to account for the yet unobserved triggered seismicity adapted to the problem of forecasting future seismic rates at varying horizons from the present. Tests presented on synthetic catalogs validate strongly the importance of taking into account all the cascades of still unobserved triggered events in order to predict correctly the future level of seismicity beyond a few minutes. We find a strong predictability if one accepts to predict only a small fraction of the large-magnitude targets. However, the probability gains degrade fast when one attempts to predict a larger fraction of the targets. This is because a significant fraction of events remain uncorrelated from past seismicity. This delineates the fundamental limits underlying forecasting skills, stemming from an intrinsic stochastic component in these interacting triggered seismicity models.Comment: Latex file of 20 pages + 15 eps figures + 2 tables, in press in J. Geophys. Re

Shaking earth: Non-linear seismic processes and the second law of thermodynamics: A case study from Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquakes

We would like to express our gratitude to GeoNet for making available the data used in this work. This work was partially sup-ported by the RNM104 and RNM194 (Research Groups belonging to Junta de Andalucia, Spain) , the Spanish National Projects [grant project PID2019-109608GB-I00] , and the Junta de Andalucia Project [grant project A-RNM-421-UGR18] . English language editing was performed by Tornillo Scientific.Earthquakes are non-linear phenomena that are often treated as a chaotic natural processes. We propose the use of the Second Law of Thermodynamics and entropy, H, as an indicator of the equilibrium state of a seismically active region (a seismic system). In this sense, in this paper we demonstrate the exportability of first principles (e.g., thermodynamics laws) to others scientific fields (e.g., seismology). We suggest that the relationship between increasing H and the occurrence of large earthquakes reflects the irreversible transition of a system. From this point of view, a seismic system evolves from an unstable initial state (due to external stresses) to a state of reduced stress after an earthquake. This is an irreversible transition that entails an increase in entropy. In other words, a seismic system is in a metastable situation that can be characterised by the Second Law of Thermodynamics. We investigated two seismic episodes in the Canterbury area of New Zealand: the 2010 Christchurch earthquake (M = 7.2) and the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake (M = 7.8). The results are remarkably in line with our theoretical forecasts. In other words, an earthquake, understood as an irreversible transition, must results in an increase in entropy.Research Groups belonging to Junta de Andalucia, Spain RNM104- RNM194Spanish National Projects PID2019-109608GB-I00Junta de Andalucia A-RNM-421-UGR1

Development of fractal-fuzzy evaluation methodology and its application for seismic hazards assessment using microseismic monitoring in coal mining

Seismic hazards have become one of the common risks in underground coal mining and their assessment is an important component of the safety management. In this study, a methodology, involving nine fractal dimension-based indices and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, has been developed based on the processed real time microseismic data from an underground coal mine, which allows for a better and quantitative evaluation of the likelihood for the seismic hazards. In the fuzzy model, the membership function was built using a Gaussian shape and the weight of each index was determined using the performance metric F score derived from the confusion matrix. The assessment results were initially characterised as a probability belonging to each of four risk levels (none, weak, moderate and strong). The comprehensive result was then evaluated by integrating the maximum membership degree principle (MMDP) and the variable fuzzy pattern recognition (VFPR). The model parameters of this methodology were first calibrated using historical microseismic data over a period of seven months at Coal Mine Velenje in Slovenia, and then applied to analyse more recent microseismic monitoring data. The results indicate that the calibrated model was able to assess seismic hazards in the mine

One-Dimensional Sensor Learns to Sense Three-Dimensional Space

A sensor system with ultra-high sensitivity, high resolution, rapid response time, and a high signal-to-noise ratio can produce raw data that is exceedingly rich in information, including signals that have the appearances of noise . The noise feature directly correlates to measurands in orthogonal dimensions, and are simply manifestations of the off-diagonal elements of 2nd-order tensors that describe the spatial anisotropy of matter in physical structures and spaces. The use of machine learning techniques to extract useful meanings from the rich information afforded by ultra-sensitive one-dimensional sensors may offer the potential for probing mundane events for novel embedded phenomena. Inspired by our very recent invention of ultra-sensitive optical-based inclinometers, this work aims to answer a transformative question for the first time: can a single-dimension point sensor with ultra-high sensitivity, fidelity, and signal-to-noise ratio identify an arbitrary mechanical impact event in three-dimensional space? This work is expected to inspire researchers in the fields of sensing and measurement to promote the development of a new generation of powerful sensors or sensor networks with expanded functionalities and enhanced intelligence, which may provide rich n-dimensional information, and subsequently, data-driven insights into significant problems

From Hector Mine M7.1 to Ridgecrest M7.1 Earthquake. A Look from a 20-Year Perspective

The paper provides a comparative analysis of precursory phenomena in the ionosphere and atmosphere for two strong earthquakes of the same magnitude M7.1 that happened in the same region (North-East from Los Angeles) within a time span of 20 years, the Hector Mine and Ridgecrest earthquakes. Regardless of the similarity of their location (South-Eastern California, near 160 km one from another), there was one essential difference: the Hector Mine earthquake happened during geomagnetically disturbed conditions (essential in the sense of ionospheric precursors identification). In contrast, the quiet geomagnetic conditions characterized the period around the time of the Ridgecrest earthquake. The Hector mine earthquake happened in the middle of the rising phase of the 23-rd solar cycle characterized by high solar activity, while the Ridgecrest earthquake happened by the very end of the 24th cycle under very low solar activity conditions. We provide a comprehensive multi-factor analysis, determine the precursory period for both earthquakes and demonstrate the close similarity of ionospheric precursors. Unlike the majority of papers dealing with earthquake precursor identification based on the “abnormality” of observed time-series mainly determined by amplitude difference between “normal” (usually climatic) behavior and “abnormal” behavior with amplitudes exceeding some pre-established threshold, we used the technique of cognitive recognition of the precursors based on the physical mechanisms of their generation and the morphology of their behavior during the precursory period. These permits to uniquely identify precursors even in conditions of disturbed environment as it was around the time of the Hector Mine earthquake. We demonstrate the close similarity of precursors’ development for both events. The leading time of precursor appearance for the same region and similar magnitude was identical. For the Hector Mine it was 11 October 1999—5 days in advance—and for 2019 Ridgecrest it was 28 June—7 days before the mainshock and five days before the strongest foreshock

Stability, Erosion, and Morphology Considerations for Sustainable Slope Design

The construction of more natural and sustainable earth slopes requires the consideration of erosion and runoff characteristics as an integral part of the design. These effects not only result in high costs for removal of sediment, but also a profound damage to the ecosystem. In this dissertation, innovative techniques are developed such that more natural appearing slopes can be designed to minimize sediment delivery, while meeting mechanical equilibrium requirements. This was accomplished by: a) examining the fundamental failure modes of slopes built with minimum compaction (FRA) to enhance quick establishment of forest, b) investigating the geomechanical and erosion stability of concave slopes, and c) developing design equations for a new type of inclined-face retaining structure, the Piling Framed Retaining Wall (PFRW), which in the limit is a confined slope. The analysis of several potential failures via Limit Equilibrium (LEM) and Finite Element (FEM) suggested that the governing failure of FRA slopes is shallow and well represented by infinite slope conditions, and laboratory and field data suggests that seasonal increase of stability due to matric suction is possible, while instability may occur under local seismicity. The investigation of the mechanical and erosion stability of concave slopes began with a mathematical definition of critical concave slopes at limiting equilibrium. Based on this, a mechanism to design concave slopes for a selected Factor of Safety (FS) was proposed. Results indicated that concave slopes can yield 15-40% less sediment than planar slopes of equal FS, and the stability is not compromised by errors in the construction. Concave slopes satisfying mechanical equilibrium are not necessarily in erosion equilibrium as observed in many natural landscapes. It was shown that when these two equilibrium conditions are met, the slopes become sustainable and a set of equations describing sustainable concave slopes was proposed. Finally, rational design equations for the innovative PFRW were developed based on numerous FEM analyses for different soil and geometry conditions. The equations provided a good prediction of the soil stresses measured on a PFRW built in Knoxville, TN