Experimental Simulations and Tort Reform: Avoidance, Error and Overreaching in Sunstein Et Al.’s ‘Punitive Damages’

This article addresses tort reform claims made in Cass R. Sunstein, et al.\u27s Punitive Damages: How Juries Decide (2002)and related articles, research that was largely underwritten by the Exxon Corporation. Based upon a series of simulation experiments, those authors have made a general claim that juries are incapable of making coherent judgments about punitive damages. In this article I raise serious methodological problems bearing on the validity of the research, and, therefore, its ability to provide judges and legislators with useful information about juries and punitive damages

To What Extent do Investors in a Financial Market Anchor Their Judgments? Evidence from the Hong Kong Horserace Betting Market

This paper explores the use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic by decision makers in a financial market; in particular, the degree to which horserace bettors anchor their probability judgments on the advantage afforded by a horse‟s barrier-position. The results suggest that under certain conditions bettors anchor on barrier-position information revealed at previous race meetings, but not on the most recent race outcomes. In fact, bettors appear to use the most recent race outcomes appropriately when forming probability estimates; but only when the results are in line with their mental model of barrier-position advantage. Bettors with varying levels of expertise are shown to be subject to anchoring, although greater expertise is generally associated with less anchoring. The paper concludes that the manner and degree of anchoring in real world environ.

"Uncertainty, Conventional Behavior, and Economic Sociology"

This paper addresses the problem of the conceptualization of social structure and its relationship to human agency in economic sociology. The background is provided by John Maynard KeynesÕs observations on the effects of uncertainty and conventional behavior on the stock market; the analysis consists of a comparison of the social ontologies of the French Intersubjectivist School and the Economics as Social Theory Project in the light of these observations. The theoretical argument is followed by concrete examples drawn from a prominent recent study of the stock market boom of the 1990s.

Uncertainty, Conventional Behavior, and Economic Sociology

This paper addresses the problem of the conceptualization of social structure and its relationship to human agency in economic sociology. The background is provided by John Maynard Keynes's observations on the effects of uncertainty and conventional behavior on the stock market; the analysis consists of a comparison of the social ontologies of the French Intersubjectivist School and the Economics as Social Theory Project in the light of these observations. The theoretical argument is followed by concrete examples drawn from a prominent recent study of the stock market boom of the 1990s.

Do the citizens of Europe trust their police?

Purpose - The maintenance of public order and the control of crime are clearly amongst the primary objectives of global law enforcement agencies. An important antecedent to this is the consideration of public trust in their police force. The purpose of this paper is to utilise data from the 5th Round European Social Survey (ESS), to investigate how public social indicators may highlight the level of trust in a country’s police force. Design/methodology/approach – The results from the ESS are analysed using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), multiply conjunctional causal configurations of the considered social indicators are then established and analysed. Findings - A consequence of using fsQCA, asymmetric causal configurations are identified for the relative high and low limiting levels of trust towards the police in the considered countries. The results offer novel insights into the relationship between social indicators and police trust, as well as expositing a nascent technique (fsQCA) that may offer future potential in this area. Originality/value – This paper introduces a novel technique to analyse a major European data set relating to citizens perceptions of the police. The findings might prove useful for policing organisations as they develop strategies to maintain/improve the level of trust and confidence of citizens in the policing services they provide

Troubles with Bayesianism: An introduction to the psychological immune system

A Bayesian mind is, at its core, a rational mind. Bayesianism is thus well-suited to predict and explain mental processes that best exemplify our ability to be rational. However, evidence from belief acquisition and change appears to show that we do not acquire and update information in a Bayesian way. Instead, the principles of belief acquisition and updating seem grounded in maintaining a psychological immune system rather than in approximating a Bayesian processor

Flexibility is the Key to Stability: An Investigation of the Malleability of Personality Judgements with a Focus on the Moral Domain.

This thesis investigates the malleability of individuals’ self-concept by extending the anchoring and choice blindness paradigms to the domain of the self. In a series of online experiments, I explore how others’ behaviour and one’s own (alleged) previous behaviour influence current personality judgements and decisions. Study 1 investigates whether moral choices are more malleable than choices in other domains in response to social anchors. Study 2 asks whether participants are especially vulnerable to self-serving anchors, i.e., anchors heightening participant’s qualities. Studies 3 and 4 explore the potential self-serving aftereffect of anchoring on subsequent personality judgements (Study 3) and prosocial choices (Study 4). Study 5 investigates whether personality judgements are susceptible to choice blindness manipulations, especially when the manipulations elevate the self-view. Throughout the studies, I contrast moral and non-moral attitudes to explore whether moral behaviours and personality judgements are more susceptible to cognitive influences.The main conclusion from the present thesis is that personality judgements are flexible in response to cognitive influences in a self-serving manner: personality judgements seem flexible enough to accommodate adjustments elevating the self-image, however they remain relatively stable in the face of diminishing manipulations. Although, there was no unanimous evidence that self-serving manipulations of personality judgements influence the general self-image, enhancing anchors led to nearly 15% more generous donations in a subsequent Dictator Game. The analysis did not support magnified anchoring or choice blindness effects for moral traits, rather morality had a general elevating effect with individuals ranking themselves more positively on moral than on non-moral traits. The data also provided evidence for a “phrasing effect” with participants ranking themselves higher, on average, for negatively than positively phrased traits. These findings suggest that personality judgements are constructed and adjusted in a somewhat different way than previously thought. Implications for the anchoring and choice blindness frameworks are also discussed

(Not so) Lost in Translation: How Foreign Language Use Affects Decision-Making

Using a foreign language in decision-making under uncertainty has been found to influence the choices people make. This foreign language effect has been studied for a very restricted selection of cognitive phenomena including framing effects. Therefore, my study aimed to extend the range of cognitive phenomena to the availability and the anchoring heuristic, but also replicate previous studies concerning framing for a new sample as a baseline for comparisons. The foreign language effect was assessed using a questionnaire which was randomly administered to Norwegian students (N=204) in either Norwegian or English. Framing was assessed using the Asian disease task, the availability heuristic was assessed using a probability estimation task, and anchoring was assessed using a frequency estimation task. The participants’ responses in the two language conditions did not differ significantly, which indicates that the FLE did not emerge in the current study. Possible explanations are discussed.Masteroppgave i psykologiMAPSYK360INTL-SVINTL-KMDINTL-MNINTL-HFINTL-PSYKMAPS-PSYKINTL-MEDINTL-JU

Can Experience be Trusted? Investigating the Effect of Experience on Decision Biases in Crowdworking Platforms

Companies increasingly involve the crowd for collective decision making and, to aggregate the decisions, they commonly average the scores. By ignoring crowdworkers’ different levels of experience and decision biases, this method may not favor the best outcome. Alternatively, decisions can be weighted in favor of the more experienced judges in the crowd. However, previous research is inconclusive as to whether more experienced individuals are any better at avoiding decision biases. To answer this question, we conduct online crowd-based experiments with a range of treatments, comparing the anchoring effect of individuals with different levels of experience. Results indicate that not only does greater experience not protect crowdworkers from the anchoring effect but it increases their confidence in their decision, compared to less experienced individuals, even if they are wrong. Our findings provide valuable insights for both researchers and practitioners interested in improving the effectiveness of crowdworking decision-making