Personalized Purchase Prediction of Market Baskets with Wasserstein-Based Sequence Matching

Personalization in marketing aims at improving the shopping experience of customers by tailoring services to individuals. In order to achieve this, businesses must be able to make personalized predictions regarding the next purchase. That is, one must forecast the exact list of items that will comprise the next purchase, i.e., the so-called market basket. Despite its relevance to firm operations, this problem has received surprisingly little attention in prior research, largely due to its inherent complexity. In fact, state-of-the-art approaches are limited to intuitive decision rules for pattern extraction. However, the simplicity of the pre-coded rules impedes performance, since decision rules operate in an autoregressive fashion: the rules can only make inferences from past purchases of a single customer without taking into account the knowledge transfer that takes place between customers. In contrast, our research overcomes the limitations of pre-set rules by contributing a novel predictor of market baskets from sequential purchase histories: our predictions are based on similarity matching in order to identify similar purchase habits among the complete shopping histories of all customers. Our contributions are as follows: (1) We propose similarity matching based on subsequential dynamic time warping (SDTW) as a novel predictor of market baskets. Thereby, we can effectively identify cross-customer patterns. (2) We leverage the Wasserstein distance for measuring the similarity among embedded purchase histories. (3) We develop a fast approximation algorithm for computing a lower bound of the Wasserstein distance in our setting. An extensive series of computational experiments demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. The accuracy of identifying the exact market baskets based on state-of-the-art decision rules from the literature is outperformed by a factor of 4.0.Comment: Accepted for oral presentation at 25th ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (KDD 2019

Algorithms on Ideal over Complex Multiplication order

We show in this paper that the Gentry-Szydlo algorithm for cyclotomic orders, previously revisited by Lenstra-Silverberg, can be extended to complex-multiplication (CM) orders, and even to a more general structure. This algorithm allows to test equality over the polarized ideal class group, and finds a generator of the polarized ideal in polynomial time. Also, the algorithm allows to solve the norm equation over CM orders and the recent reduction of principal ideals to the real suborder can also be performed in polynomial time. Furthermore, we can also compute in polynomial time a unit of an order of any number field given a (not very precise) approximation of it. Our description of the Gentry-Szydlo algorithm is different from the original and Lenstra- Silverberg's variant and we hope the simplifications made will allow a deeper understanding. Finally, we show that the well-known speed-up for enumeration and sieve algorithms for ideal lattices over power of two cyclotomics can be generalized to any number field with many roots of unity.Comment: Full version of a paper submitted to ANT

Sparse approaches for the exact distribution of patterns in long state sequences generated by a Markov source

We present two novel approaches for the computation of the exact distribution of a pattern in a long sequence. Both approaches take into account the sparse structure of the problem and are two-part algorithms. The first approach relies on a partial recursion after a fast computation of the second largest eigenvalue of the transition matrix of a Markov chain embedding. The second approach uses fast Taylor expansions of an exact bivariate rational reconstruction of the distribution. We illustrate the interest of both approaches on a simple toy-example and two biological applications: the transcription factors of the Human Chromosome 5 and the PROSITE signatures of functional motifs in proteins. On these example our methods demonstrate their complementarity and their hability to extend the domain of feasibility for exact computations in pattern problems to a new level

Euclidean distance geometry and applications

Euclidean distance geometry is the study of Euclidean geometry based on the concept of distance. This is useful in several applications where the input data consists of an incomplete set of distances, and the output is a set of points in Euclidean space that realizes the given distances. We survey some of the theory of Euclidean distance geometry and some of the most important applications: molecular conformation, localization of sensor networks and statics.Comment: 64 pages, 21 figure