40,220 research outputs found
Evaluation of the Performance of the Markov Blanket Bayesian Classifier Algorithm
The Markov Blanket Bayesian Classifier is a recently-proposed algorithm for
construction of probabilistic classifiers. This paper presents an empirical
comparison of the MBBC algorithm with three other Bayesian classifiers: Naive
Bayes, Tree-Augmented Naive Bayes and a general Bayesian network. All of these
are implemented using the K2 framework of Cooper and Herskovits. The
classifiers are compared in terms of their performance (using simple accuracy
measures and ROC curves) and speed, on a range of standard benchmark data sets.
It is concluded that MBBC is competitive in terms of speed and accuracy with
the other algorithms considered.Comment: 9 pages: Technical Report No. NUIG-IT-011002, Department of
Information Technology, National University of Ireland, Galway (2002
Distribution matching for transduction
Many transductive inference algorithms assume that distributions over training and test estimates should be related, e.g. by providing a large margin of separation on both sets. We use this idea to design a transduction algorithm which can be used without modification for classification, regression, and structured estimation. At its heart we exploit the fact that for a good learner the distributions over the outputs on training and test sets should match. This is a classical two-sample problem which can be solved efficiently in its most general form by using distance measures in Hilbert Space. It turns out that a number of existing heuristics can be viewed as special cases of our approach.
An investigation of machine learning based prediction systems
Traditionally, researchers have used either o�f-the-shelf models such as COCOMO, or developed local models using statistical techniques such as stepwise regression, to obtain software eff�ort estimates. More recently, attention has turned to a variety of machine learning methods such as artifcial neural networks (ANNs), case-based reasoning (CBR) and rule induction (RI). This paper outlines some comparative research into the use of these three machine learning methods to build software e�ort prediction
systems. We briefly describe each method and then apply the techniques to a dataset of 81 software projects derived from a Canadian software house in the late 1980s. We compare the prediction systems in terms of three factors: accuracy, explanatory value and configurability. We show that ANN methods have superior accuracy and that RI methods are least accurate. However, this view is somewhat counteracted by problems with explanatory value and configurability. For example, we found that considerable
eff�ort was required to configure the ANN and that this compared very unfavourably with the other techniques, particularly CBR and least squares regression (LSR). We suggest that further work be carried out, both to further explore interaction between the enduser and the prediction system, and also to facilitate configuration, particularly of ANNs
Stratification bias in low signal microarray studies
BACKGROUND:
When analysing microarray and other small sample size biological datasets, care is needed to avoid various biases. We analyse a form of bias, stratification bias, that can substantially affect analyses using sample-reuse validation techniques and lead to inaccurate results. This bias is due to imperfect stratification of samples in the training and test sets and the dependency between these stratification errors, i.e. the variations in class proportions in the training and test sets are negatively correlated.
RESULTS:
We show that when estimating the performance of classifiers on low signal datasets (i.e. those which are difficult to classify), which are typical of many prognostic microarray studies, commonly used performance measures can suffer from a substantial negative bias. For error rate this bias is only severe in quite restricted situations, but can be much larger and more frequent when using ranking measures such as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the ROC (AUC). Substantial biases are shown in simulations and on the van 't Veer breast cancer dataset. The classification error rate can have large negative biases for balanced datasets, whereas the AUC shows substantial pessimistic biases even for imbalanced datasets. In simulation studies using 10-fold cross-validation, AUC values of less than 0.3 can be observed on random datasets rather than the expected 0.5. Further experiments on the van 't Veer breast cancer dataset show these biases exist in practice.
CONCLUSION:
Stratification bias can substantially affect several performance measures. In computing the AUC, the strategy of pooling the test samples from the various folds of cross-validation can lead to large biases; computing it as the average of per-fold estimates avoids this bias and is thus the recommended approach. As a more general solution applicable to other performance measures, we show that stratified repeated holdout and a modified version of k-fold cross-validation, balanced, stratified cross-validation and balanced leave-one-out cross-validation, avoids the bias. Therefore for model selection and evaluation of microarray and other small biological datasets, these methods should be used and unstratified versions avoided. In particular, the commonly used (unbalanced) leave-one-out cross-validation should not be used to estimate AUC for small datasets
A review of associative classification mining
Associative classification mining is a promising approach in data mining that utilizes the
association rule discovery techniques to construct classification systems, also known as
associative classifiers. In the last few years, a number of associative classification algorithms
have been proposed, i.e. CPAR, CMAR, MCAR, MMAC and others. These algorithms
employ several different rule discovery, rule ranking, rule pruning, rule prediction and rule
evaluation methods. This paper focuses on surveying and comparing the state-of-the-art associative
classification techniques with regards to the above criteria. Finally, future directions in associative
classification, such as incremental learning and mining low-quality data sets, are also
highlighted in this paper
Network Sampling: From Static to Streaming Graphs
Network sampling is integral to the analysis of social, information, and
biological networks. Since many real-world networks are massive in size,
continuously evolving, and/or distributed in nature, the network structure is
often sampled in order to facilitate study. For these reasons, a more thorough
and complete understanding of network sampling is critical to support the field
of network science. In this paper, we outline a framework for the general
problem of network sampling, by highlighting the different objectives,
population and units of interest, and classes of network sampling methods. In
addition, we propose a spectrum of computational models for network sampling
methods, ranging from the traditionally studied model based on the assumption
of a static domain to a more challenging model that is appropriate for
streaming domains. We design a family of sampling methods based on the concept
of graph induction that generalize across the full spectrum of computational
models (from static to streaming) while efficiently preserving many of the
topological properties of the input graphs. Furthermore, we demonstrate how
traditional static sampling algorithms can be modified for graph streams for
each of the three main classes of sampling methods: node, edge, and
topology-based sampling. Our experimental results indicate that our proposed
family of sampling methods more accurately preserves the underlying properties
of the graph for both static and streaming graphs. Finally, we study the impact
of network sampling algorithms on the parameter estimation and performance
evaluation of relational classification algorithms
The IBMAP approach for Markov networks structure learning
In this work we consider the problem of learning the structure of Markov
networks from data. We present an approach for tackling this problem called
IBMAP, together with an efficient instantiation of the approach: the IBMAP-HC
algorithm, designed for avoiding important limitations of existing
independence-based algorithms. These algorithms proceed by performing
statistical independence tests on data, trusting completely the outcome of each
test. In practice tests may be incorrect, resulting in potential cascading
errors and the consequent reduction in the quality of the structures learned.
IBMAP contemplates this uncertainty in the outcome of the tests through a
probabilistic maximum-a-posteriori approach. The approach is instantiated in
the IBMAP-HC algorithm, a structure selection strategy that performs a
polynomial heuristic local search in the space of possible structures. We
present an extensive empirical evaluation on synthetic and real data, showing
that our algorithm outperforms significantly the current independence-based
algorithms, in terms of data efficiency and quality of learned structures, with
equivalent computational complexities. We also show the performance of IBMAP-HC
in a real-world application of knowledge discovery: EDAs, which are
evolutionary algorithms that use structure learning on each generation for
modeling the distribution of populations. The experiments show that when
IBMAP-HC is used to learn the structure, EDAs improve the convergence to the
optimum
Ensembles of probability estimation trees for customer churn prediction
Customer churn prediction is one of the most, important elements tents of a company's Customer Relationship Management, (CRM) strategy In tins study, two strategies are investigated to increase the lift. performance of ensemble classification models, i.e (1) using probability estimation trees (PETs) instead of standard decision trees as base classifiers; and (n) implementing alternative fusion rules based on lift weights lot the combination of ensemble member's outputs Experiments ale conducted lot font popular ensemble strategics on five real-life chin n data sets In general, the results demonstrate how lift performance can be substantially improved by using alternative base classifiers and fusion tides However: the effect vanes lot the (Idol cut ensemble strategies lit particular, the results indicate an increase of lift performance of (1) Bagging by implementing C4 4 base classifiets. (n) the Random Subspace Method (RSM) by using lift-weighted fusion rules, and (in) AdaBoost, by implementing both
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