Analiza i predviđanje toka vremenskih serija pomoću “Case-BasedReasoning” tehnologije.

This thesis describes one promising approach where a problem of time series analysis and prediction was solved by using Case Based Reasoning (CBR) technology. Foundations and main concepts of this technology are described in detail. Furthermore, a detailed study of different approaches in time series analysis is given. System CuBaGe (Curve Base Generator) - A robust and general architecture for curve representation and indexing time series databases, based on Case based reasoning technology, was developed. Also, a corresponding similarity measure was modelled for a given kind of curve representation. The presented architecture may be employed equally well not only in conventional time series (where all values are known), but also in some non-standard time series (sparse, vague, non-equidistant). Dealing with the non-standard time series is the highest advantage of the presented architecture.U ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji prikazan je interesantan i perspektivan pristup rešavanja problema analize i predviđanja vremenskih serija korišćenjem Case Based Reasoning (CBR) tehnologije. Detaljno su opisane osnove i glavni koncepti ove tehnologije. Takođe, data je komparativna analiza različitih pristupa u analizi vremenskih serija sa posebnim osvrtom na predviđanje. Kao najveći doprinos ove disertacije, prikazan je sistem CuBaGe (Curve Base Generator) u kome je realizovan originalni način reprezentacije vremenskih serija zajedno sa, takođe originalnom, odgovarajućom merom sličnosti. Robusnost i generalnost sistema ilustrovana je realnom primenom u domenu finansijskog predviđanja, gde je pokazano da sistem jednako dobro funkcioniše sa standardnim, ali i sa nekim nestandardnim vremenskim serijama (neodređenim, retkim i neekvidistantnim)

Modelling energy efficiency for computation

In the last decade, efficient use of energy has become a topic of global significance, touching almost every area of modern life, including computing. From mobile to desktop to server, energy efficiency concerns are now ubiquitous. However, approaches to the energy problem are often piecemeal and focus on only one area for improvement. I argue that the strands of the energy problem are inextricably entangled and cannot be solved in isolation. I offer a high-level view of the problem and, building from it, explore a selection of subproblems within the field. I approach these with various levels of formality, and demonstrate techniques to make improvements on all levels.Clare College Domestic Research Scholarshi

Leveraging Semantic Annotations for Event-focused Search & Summarization

Today in this Big Data era, overwhelming amounts of textual information across different sources with a high degree of redundancy has made it hard for a consumer to retrospect on past events. A plausible solution is to link semantically similar information contained across the different sources to enforce a structure thereby providing multiple access paths to relevant information. Keeping this larger goal in view, this work uses Wikipedia and online news articles as two prominent yet disparate information sources to address the following three problems: • We address a linking problem to connect Wikipedia excerpts to news articles by casting it into an IR task. Our novel approach integrates time, geolocations, and entities with text to identify relevant documents that can be linked to a given excerpt. • We address an unsupervised extractive multi-document summarization task to generate a fixed-length event digest that facilitates efficient consumption of information contained within a large set of documents. Our novel approach proposes an ILP for global inference across text, time, geolocations, and entities associated with the event. • To estimate temporal focus of short event descriptions, we present a semi-supervised approach that leverages redundancy within a longitudinal news collection to estimate accurate probabilistic time models. Extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate the effectiveness and viability of our proposed approaches towards achieving the larger goal.Im heutigen Big Data Zeitalters existieren überwältigende Mengen an Textinformationen, die über mehrere Quellen verteilt sind und ein hohes Maß an Redundanz haben. Durch diese Gegebenheiten ist eine Retroperspektive auf vergangene Ereignisse für Konsumenten nur schwer möglich. Eine plausible Lösung ist die Verknüpfung semantisch ähnlicher, aber über mehrere Quellen verteilter Informationen, um dadurch eine Struktur zu erzwingen, die mehrere Zugriffspfade auf relevante Informationen, bietet. Vor diesem Hintergrund benutzt diese Dissertation Wikipedia und Onlinenachrichten als zwei prominente, aber dennoch grundverschiedene Informationsquellen, um die folgenden drei Probleme anzusprechen: • Wir adressieren ein Verknüpfungsproblem, um Wikipedia-Auszüge mit Nachrichtenartikeln zu verbinden und das Problem in eine Information-Retrieval-Aufgabe umzuwandeln. Unser neuartiger Ansatz integriert Zeit- und Geobezüge sowie Entitäten mit Text, um relevante Dokumente, die mit einem gegebenen Auszug verknüpft werden können, zu identifizieren. • Wir befassen uns mit einer unüberwachten Extraktionsmethode zur automatischen Zusammenfassung von Texten aus mehreren Dokumenten um Ereigniszusammenfassungen mit fester Länge zu generieren, was eine effiziente Aufnahme von Informationen aus großen Dokumentenmassen ermöglicht. Unser neuartiger Ansatz schlägt eine ganzzahlige lineare Optimierungslösung vor, die globale Inferenzen über Text, Zeit, Geolokationen und mit Ereignis-verbundenen Entitäten zieht. • Um den zeitlichen Fokus kurzer Ereignisbeschreibungen abzuschätzen, stellen wir einen semi-überwachten Ansatz vor, der die Redundanz innerhalb einer langzeitigen Dokumentensammlung ausnutzt, um genaue probabilistische Zeitmodelle abzuschätzen. Umfangreiche experimentelle Auswertungen zeigen die Wirksamkeit und Tragfähigkeit unserer vorgeschlagenen Ansätze zur Erreichung des größeren Ziels

Developing sustainable business models for institutions’ provision of open educational resources: Learning from OpenLearn users’ motivations and experiences

Universities across the globe have, for some time, been exploring the possibilities for achieving public benefit and generating business and visibility through releasing and sharing open educational resources (OER). Many have written about the need to develop sustainable and profitable business models around the production and release of OER. Downes (2006), for example, has questioned the financial sustainability of OER production at scale. Many of the proposed business models focus on OER’s value in generating revenue and detractors of OER have questioned whether they are in competition with formal education. This paper reports on a study intended to broaden the conversation about OER business models to consider the motivations and experiences of OER users as the basis for making a better informed decision about whether OER and formal learning are competitive or complementary with each other. The study focused on OpenLearn - the Open University’s (OU) web-based platform for OER, which hosts hundreds of online courses and videos and is accessed by over 3,000,000 users a year. A large scale survey and follow-up interviews with OpenLearn users worldwide revealed that university provided OER can offer learners a bridge to formal education, allowing them to try out a subject before registering on a formal course and to build confidence in their abilities as learners. In addition, it was found that using OER during formal paid-for study can improve learners’ performance and self-reliance, leading to increased retention and satisfaction with the learning experience

A series of case studies to enhance the social utility of RSS

RSS (really simple syndication, rich site summary or RDF site summary) is a dialect of XML that provides a method of syndicating on-line content, where postings consist of frequently updated news items, blog entries and multimedia. RSS feeds, produced by organisations or individuals, are often aggregated, and delivered to users for consumption via readers. The semi-structured format of RSS also allows the delivery/exchange of machine-readable content between different platforms and systems. Articles on web pages frequently include icons that represent social media services which facilitate social data. Amongst these, RSS feeds deliver data which is typically presented in the journalistic style of headline, story and snapshot(s). Consequently, applications and academic research have employed RSS on this basis. Therefore, within the context of social media, the question arises: can the social function, i.e. utility, of RSS be enhanced by producing from it data which is actionable and effective? This thesis is based upon the hypothesis that the fluctuations in the keyword frequencies present in RSS can be mined to produce actionable and effective data, to enhance the technology's social utility. To this end, we present a series of laboratory-based case studies which demonstrate two novel and logically consistent RSS-mining paradigms. Our first paradigm allows users to define mining rules to mine data from feeds. The second paradigm employs a semi-automated classification of feeds and correlates this with sentiment. We visualise the outputs produced by the case studies for these paradigms, where they can benefit users in real-world scenarios, varying from statistics and trend analysis to mining financial and sporting data. The contributions of this thesis to web engineering and text mining are the demonstration of the proof of concept of our paradigms, through the integration of an array of open-source, third-party products into a coherent and innovative, alpha-version prototype software implemented in a Java JSP/servlet-based web application architecture