The factors which influence the selection of physical targets by terrorist groups

The aim of terrorism is to influence a group of people or institutions - the psychological target or targets - by attacking the appropriate physical targets in order to prompt the desired response. Several factors influence the selection of physical targets by non-state terrorist groups. These include the ideology of the terrorist group concerned, the strategy adopted by the group and its capabilities, its need to take account of external opinion - including that of supporters, the measures adopted to protect likely targets, and the security environment within which the terrorist group operates. In addition, decision-making is affected by the dynamics within the group which are in turn affected by the psychological pressures of clandestinity and the frequent risk of death or capture which many terrorists run. The relationship between these factors varies from group to group, which is inevitable given the idiosyncratic nature of most terrorist groups, and the different circumstances in which they find themselves. However, it can generally be said that ideology sets out the moral framework within which terrorists operate - and which determines whether terrorists judge it to be legitimate to attack a range of target. After this, the determination of which targets it will actually be beneficial to attack depends upon the strategy which the group has adopted as a means of achieving its political objectives. The determination of their strategic objectives depends upon the effects which the terrorists hope their attacks will achieve. Thus, strategy further refines the range of targets initially delimited by the group's ideology. The other factors mentioned tend to act as constraints upon the group, partly - as with security measures - in restricting them from carrying out the types of attacks which they would desire but also in encouraging them to carry out attacks on certain targets in the hope of gaining benefits such as the approval of their supporters, or of gaining publicity for their cause. Underlying all of this is the human factor, whereby relations within the group, the impact of psychological pressure, and individual differences in moral judgements may influence the targets chosen by terrorists

ON META-NETWORKS, DEEP LEARNING, TIME AND JIHADISM

Il terrorismo di stampo jihadista rappresenta una minaccia per la società e una sfida per gli scienziati interessati a comprenderne la complessità. Questa complessità richiede costantemente nuovi sviluppi in termini di ricerca sul terrorismo. Migliorare la conoscenza empirica rispetto a tale fenomeno può potenzialmente contribuire a sviluppare applicazioni concrete e, in ultima istanza, a prevenire danni all’uomo. In considerazione di tali aspetti, questa tesi presenta un nuovo quadro metodologico che integra scienza delle reti, modelli stocastici e apprendimento profondo per far luce sul terrorismo jihadista sia a livello esplicativo che predittivo. In particolare, questo lavoro compara e analizza le organizzazioni jihadiste più attive a livello mondiale (ovvero lo Stato Islamico, i Talebani, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram e Al Shabaab) per studiarne i pattern comportamentali e predirne le future azioni. Attraverso un impianto teorico che si poggia sulla concentrazione spaziale del crimine e sulle prospettive strategiche del comportamento terroristico, questa tesi persegue tre obiettivi collegati utilizzando altrettante tecniche ibride. In primo luogo, verrà esplorata la complessità operativa delle organizzazioni jihadiste attraverso l’analisi di matrici stocastiche di transizione e verrà presentato un nuovo coefficiente, denominato “Normalized Transition Similarity”, che misura la somiglianza fra paia di gruppi in termini di dinamiche operative. In secondo luogo, i processi stocastici di Hawkes aiuteranno a testare la presenza di meccanismi di dipendenza temporale all’interno delle più comuni sotto-sequenze strategiche di ciascun gruppo. Infine, il framework integrerà la meta-reti complesse e l’apprendimento profondo per classificare e prevedere i target a maggiore rischio di essere colpiti dalle organizzazioni jihadiste durante i loro futuri attacchi. Per quanto riguarda i risultati, le matrici stocastiche di transizione mostrano che i gruppi terroristici possiedono un ricco e complesso repertorio di combinazioni in termini di armi e obiettivi. Inoltre, i processi di Hawkes indicano la presenza di diffusa self-excitability nelle sequenze di eventi. Infine, i modelli predittivi che sfruttano la flessibilità delle serie temporali derivanti da grafi dinamici e le reti neurali Long Short-Term Memory forniscono risultati promettenti rispetto ai target più a rischio. Nel complesso, questo lavoro ambisce a dimostrare come connessioni astratte e nascoste fra eventi possano essere fondamentali nel rivelare le meccaniche del comportamento jihadista e come processi memory-like (ovvero molteplici comportamenti ricorrenti, interconnessi e non randomici) possano risultare estremamente utili nel comprendere le modalità attraverso cui tali organizzazioni operano.Jihadist terrorism represents a global threat for societies and a challenge for scientists interested in understanding its complexity. This complexity continuously calls for developments in terrorism research. Enhancing the empirical knowledge on the phenomenon can potentially contribute to developing concrete real-world applications and, ultimately, to the prevention of societal damages. In light of these aspects, this work presents a novel methodological framework that integrates network science, mathematical modeling, and deep learning to shed light on jihadism, both at the explanatory and predictive levels. Specifically, this dissertation will compare and analyze the world's most active jihadist terrorist organizations (i.e. The Islamic State, the Taliban, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, and Al Shabaab) to investigate their behavioral patterns and forecast their future actions. Building upon a theoretical framework that relies on the spatial concentration of terrorist violence and the strategic perspective of terrorist behavior, this dissertation will pursue three linked tasks, employing as many hybrid techniques. Firstly, explore the operational complexity of jihadist organizations using stochastic transition matrices and present Normalized Transition Similarity, a novel coefficient of pairwise similarity in terms of strategic behavior. Secondly, investigate the presence of time-dependent dynamics in attack sequences using Hawkes point processes. Thirdly, integrate complex meta-networks and deep learning to rank and forecast most probable future targets attacked by the jihadist groups. Concerning the results, stochastic transition matrices show that terrorist groups possess a complex repertoire of combinations in the use of weapons and targets. Furthermore, Hawkes models indicate the diffused presence of self-excitability in attack sequences. Finally, forecasting models that exploit the flexibility of graph-derived time series and Long Short-Term Memory networks provide promising results in terms of correct predictions of most likely terrorist targets. Overall, this research seeks to reveal how hidden abstract connections between events can be exploited to unveil jihadist mechanics and how memory-like processes (i.e. multiple non-random parallel and interconnected recurrent behaviors) might illuminate the way in which these groups act

Lashkar-I-Taiba: The Fallacy of Subservient Proxies and the Future of Islamist Terrorism in India

A discussion of the foundation of Lashkar-i-Taiba (LeT), the development of its modus operandi, and engages in an investigation of LeT’s activities in India, Pakistan, and the Kashmir region are discussed. Further, LeT’s fundraising methods are touched upon, and LeT’s relationships with regional state and nonstate actors such as Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Dawood Ibrahim’s D-Company are analyzed. Also, the impact that these developments have on domestic Islamist terrorism in India are addressed. The author argues that although LeT has been a vital component of Islamabad’s regional strategy in the past, the organization has grown beyond the control of its former patron, is largely self-sufficient and operates independently of the political process, and has expanded its agenda well beyond Kashmir. These developments challenge the long-held notion that irregulars can be sustainably used to achieve limited objectives in an asymmetric conflict and should serve as a clear warning to other state sponsors of terrorism. However, contrary to many analyses, LeT is not likely to sacrifice its independence and come under Al-Qaeda’s umbrella. Rather, LeT will continue to evolve into a distinctive, South Asia-centric terrorist actor in its own right while still receiving aid from fringe elements in Pakistan’s security and intelligence apparatus and elsewhere. This will not only allow LeT to continue to plan future Mumbai-style terrorist attacks in India from safe havens in Pakistan, but will also allow LeT to guide and assist the predominantly indigenous Indian Mujahideen (IM).https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1347/thumbnail.jp

Terrorist Safe Havens: Towards an Understanding of What They Accomplish for Terrorist Organizations

How do safe havens help facilitate a militant terrorist organization's activities and operations? This study expects to find that safe havens do matter, that they provide safety, training, rest, etc. The researcher presumes that without safe havens, many of the operations that these organizations conduct would be more difficult, if not next to impossible. This is contrary to the idea that a physical haven is unnecessary. At the nexus of this line of thought is that in a globalized environment, access to the internet or other technologies that negate the need for physical presence, could be utilized from any location worldwide, serving as a safe house to conduct their operations. The hypothesis of this research is that the presence of safe havens will continue to be a factor, as their existence and significance persist, facilitating dissidents' ability to conduct operations, and continues to be a salient policy issue for states in their continued efforts to eradicate their presence. The foundation for the theoretical analysis of safe havens is based upon Lichbach's solution groups of the Rebel's Dilemma

The illicit business of terrorism

This dissertation addresses a key variable determining the threat posed by terrorist groups. It relates the threat posed by terrorist attacks to how capable a terrorist group is to carry out attacks. As such, it links the threat not to the willingness of a terrorist group to conduct attacks but to its ability to do so. I maintain that for any active terrorist group the willingness to commit attacks is a necessary requirement. A terrorist group’s capability, in contrast, depends on a variety of internal and external factors. Study- ing how differences in those endowments or constraints induce varying capabilities offers a tangible approach to understand the threat posed by a specific terrorist group

Islamic State

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/ciwag-reading-lists/1000/thumbnail.jp

Understanding Al Qaeda

This book controversially argues that Al Qaeda has clear aims, and that the only way to defeat it is to engage with its arguments in a serious way. Since the publication of the first edition in 2006, Mohamedou has brought the text right up-to-date. Starting with Al Qaeda's creation almost twenty years ago, and sketching its global mutation, Mohamedou explains that there is a cogent strategy to Al Qaeda's actions. He shows that the 'war on terror' is failing, only serving to recruit more terrorists to Al Qaeda's cause. He also puts forward a case for how the international community can best respond. Arguing that it is dangerous to dismiss Al Qaeda as illogical and irrational, this incisive and original book is important for policy-makers and ideal for undergraduates in international relations, Middle East studies and peace/conflict studies

Recruiting Followers for the Caliphate: A Narrative Analysis of Four Jihadist Magazines

This study identifies and compares the methods of recruitment used by three prime jihadist organizations through their online magazines. The successful recruitment efforts and growth as a threat by the Islamic State of Iraq and Shām (ISIS), Al-Qaeda, and Al-Shabaab are attributed, in part, to the widespread popularity and accessibility of Dabiq and Rumiyah (published by ISIS), Inspire (published by Al-Qaeda), and Gaidi Mtaani (published by Al-Shabaab). In order to best examine the techniques of persuasion and propaganda to recruit new followers, the theoretical approach of compliance-gaining theory and methodological approach of a narrative analysis are applied. The author analyzed a total of twelve magazine issues to compare how the four magazines use (1) imagery, (2) attrition, (3) intimidation, (4) propaganda, (5) spoiling, (6) outbidding, (7) incitement, and (8) recruitment. To validate each of these themes, the study applies an open-coding instrument to select each label based on specific dimensions. These findings reveal how the same purpose to achieve the Caliphate can be chosen on a similar path by these three different jihadist organizations. This path may take different turns at certain spots, but ultimately the road is based on the same historical context to justify the recruitment process. Overall, this study provides fresh descriptive insights on jihadist organizations\u27 recruitment methods to gain new followers toward the achievement of the Caliphate (i.e., the global Islamic state). The sample reveals that the online jihadist magazines integrate all analyzed themes to portray their messages. The findings show certain issues implement specific themes more than others. Across the sample, the use of persuasion justified and encouraged violence. Persuasion is found in prideful examples of successful terrorist attacks and aftermath scenes of destruction. The distinct difference between the four online jihadist magazines is the persuasion of recruitment

Understanding Al Qaeda

This book controversially argues that Al Qaeda has clear aims, and that the only way to defeat it is to engage with its arguments in a serious way. Since the publication of the first edition in 2006, Mohamedou has brought the text right up-to-date. Starting with Al Qaeda's creation almost twenty years ago, and sketching its global mutation, Mohamedou explains that there is a cogent strategy to Al Qaeda's actions. He shows that the 'war on terror' is failing, only serving to recruit more terrorists to Al Qaeda's cause. He also puts forward a case for how the international community can best respond. Arguing that it is dangerous to dismiss Al Qaeda as illogical and irrational, this incisive and original book is important for policy-makers and ideal for undergraduates in international relations, Middle East studies and peace/conflict studies

The Degradation Effects of Targeted Drone Killings Against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

One of the most significant national security threats of the 21st century is international terrorism from groups associated with the Global Jihadist Movement (GJM). Since the terrorist attacks on 9/11, this threat has been confronted through various counterterrorism measures accompanying the Global War on Terror (GWOT). One of the most widely used and controversial counterterrorism tactics that has been implemented is the targeted killing of terrorist leaders and facilitators using unmanned aerial drones. Often occurring outside legitimate theaters of war, targeted drone killings are heralded as an effective way to degrade the operational capability of terrorist organizations with minimal risk to military personnel. However, while targeted drone killings have become more prevalent since 9/11, their use has outpaced research on the effectiveness of such a tactic. Therefore, through the lens of organizational theory, this study quantitatively analyzed the degradation effects of targeted drone strikes against terrorist leaders and facilitators, otherwise known as high-value targets. Specifically, degradation was measured by determining if there is a loss of professionalism or capability in subsequent attacks following the targeted drone killing of the leader or facilitator. While targeted drone killings have been conducted across multiple Middle Eastern theaters against several terrorist organizations, the focus of the current study is the terrorist group Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is based in Yemen. Often considered the most active and dangerous Al-Qaeda affiliate, AQAP provides an effective case study to measure the effectiveness of targeted drone killings due to the group’s location in Yemen and its distinct hierarchical structure