Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine learning ensembles are computationally expensive. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but do not account for epistemic uncertainty.. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to those obtained from ensembles. Through applications of classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods, while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. In order to encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning in Earth System Science, we have developed a new Python package, MILES-GUESS (https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning

Percepção do ambiente urbano e navegação usando visão robótica : concepção e implementação aplicado à veículo autônomo

Orientadores: Janito Vaqueiro Ferreira, Alessandro Corrêa VictorinoTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia MecânicaResumo: O desenvolvimento de veículos autônomos capazes de se locomover em ruas urbanas pode proporcionar importantes benefícios na redução de acidentes, no aumentando da qualidade de vida e também na redução de custos. Veículos inteligentes, por exemplo, frequentemente baseiam suas decisões em observações obtidas a partir de vários sensores tais como LIDAR, GPS e câmeras. Atualmente, sensores de câmera têm recebido grande atenção pelo motivo de que eles são de baixo custo, fáceis de utilizar e fornecem dados com rica informação. Ambientes urbanos representam um interessante mas também desafiador cenário neste contexto, onde o traçado das ruas podem ser muito complexos, a presença de objetos tais como árvores, bicicletas, veículos podem gerar observações parciais e também estas observações são muitas vezes ruidosas ou ainda perdidas devido a completas oclusões. Portanto, o processo de percepção por natureza precisa ser capaz de lidar com a incerteza no conhecimento do mundo em torno do veículo. Nesta tese, este problema de percepção é analisado para a condução nos ambientes urbanos associado com a capacidade de realizar um deslocamento seguro baseado no processo de tomada de decisão em navegação autônoma. Projeta-se um sistema de percepção que permita veículos robóticos a trafegar autonomamente nas ruas, sem a necessidade de adaptar a infraestrutura, sem o conhecimento prévio do ambiente e considerando a presença de objetos dinâmicos tais como veículos. Propõe-se um novo método baseado em aprendizado de máquina para extrair o contexto semântico usando um par de imagens estéreo, a qual é vinculada a uma grade de ocupação evidencial que modela as incertezas de um ambiente urbano desconhecido, aplicando a teoria de Dempster-Shafer. Para a tomada de decisão no planejamento do caminho, aplica-se a abordagem dos tentáculos virtuais para gerar possíveis caminhos a partir do centro de referencia do veículo e com base nisto, duas novas estratégias são propostas. Em primeiro, uma nova estratégia para escolher o caminho correto para melhor evitar obstáculos e seguir a tarefa local no contexto da navegação hibrida e, em segundo, um novo controle de malha fechada baseado na odometria visual e o tentáculo virtual é modelado para execução do seguimento de caminho. Finalmente, um completo sistema automotivo integrando os modelos de percepção, planejamento e controle são implementados e validados experimentalmente em condições reais usando um veículo autônomo experimental, onde os resultados mostram que a abordagem desenvolvida realiza com sucesso uma segura navegação local com base em sensores de câmeraAbstract: The development of autonomous vehicles capable of getting around on urban roads can provide important benefits in reducing accidents, in increasing life comfort and also in providing cost savings. Intelligent vehicles for example often base their decisions on observations obtained from various sensors such as LIDAR, GPS and Cameras. Actually, camera sensors have been receiving large attention due to they are cheap, easy to employ and provide rich data information. Inner-city environments represent an interesting but also very challenging scenario in this context, where the road layout may be very complex, the presence of objects such as trees, bicycles, cars might generate partial observations and also these observations are often noisy or even missing due to heavy occlusions. Thus, perception process by nature needs to be able to deal with uncertainties in the knowledge of the world around the car. While highway navigation and autonomous driving using a prior knowledge of the environment have been demonstrating successfully, understanding and navigating general inner-city scenarios with little prior knowledge remains an unsolved problem. In this thesis, this perception problem is analyzed for driving in the inner-city environments associated with the capacity to perform a safe displacement based on decision-making process in autonomous navigation. It is designed a perception system that allows robotic-cars to drive autonomously on roads, without the need to adapt the infrastructure, without requiring previous knowledge of the environment and considering the presence of dynamic objects such as cars. It is proposed a novel method based on machine learning to extract the semantic context using a pair of stereo images, which is merged in an evidential grid to model the uncertainties of an unknown urban environment, applying the Dempster-Shafer theory. To make decisions in path-planning, it is applied the virtual tentacle approach to generate possible paths starting from ego-referenced car and based on it, two news strategies are proposed. First one, a new strategy to select the correct path to better avoid obstacles and to follow the local task in the context of hybrid navigation, and second, a new closed loop control based on visual odometry and virtual tentacle is modeled to path-following execution. Finally, a complete automotive system integrating the perception, path-planning and control modules are implemented and experimentally validated in real situations using an experimental autonomous car, where the results show that the developed approach successfully performs a safe local navigation based on camera sensorsDoutoradoMecanica dos Sólidos e Projeto MecanicoDoutor em Engenharia Mecânic

Deep Learning-Based Machinery Fault Diagnostics

This book offers a compilation for experts, scholars, and researchers to present the most recent advancements, from theoretical methods to the applications of sophisticated fault diagnosis techniques. The deep learning methods for analyzing and testing complex mechanical systems are of particular interest. Special attention is given to the representation and analysis of system information, operating condition monitoring, the establishment of technical standards, and scientific support of machinery fault diagnosis

Classifiers for modeling of mineral potential

[Extract] Classification and allocation of land-use is a major policy objective in most countries. Such an undertaking, however, in the face of competing demands from different stakeholders, requires reliable information on resources potential. This type of information enables policy decision-makers to estimate socio-economic benefits from different possible land-use types and then to allocate most suitable land-use. The potential for several types of resources occurring on the earth's surface (e.g., forest, soil, etc.) is generally easier to determine than those occurring in the subsurface (e.g., mineral deposits, etc.). In many situations, therefore, information on potential for subsurface occurring resources is not among the inputs to land-use decision-making [85]. Consequently, many potentially mineralized lands are alienated usually to, say, further exploration and exploitation of mineral deposits. Areas with mineral potential are characterized by geological features associated genetically and spatially with the type of mineral deposits sought. The term 'mineral deposits' means .accumulations or concentrations of one or more useful naturally occurring substances, which are otherwise usually distributed sparsely in the earth's crust. The term 'mineralization' refers to collective geological processes that result in formation of mineral deposits. The term 'mineral potential' describes the probability or favorability for occurrence of mineral deposits or mineralization. The geological features characteristic of mineralized land, which are called recognition criteria, are spatial objects indicative of or produced by individual geological processes that acted together to form mineral deposits. Recognition criteria are sometimes directly observable; more often, their presence is inferred from one or more geographically referenced (or spatial) datasets, which are processed and analyzed appropriately to enhance, extract, and represent the recognition criteria as spatial evidence or predictor maps. Mineral potential mapping then involves integration of predictor maps in order to classify areas of unique combinations of spatial predictor patterns, called unique conditions [51] as either barren or mineralized with respect to the mineral deposit-type sought

Water Quality Modeling of Rivers and Lakes

Oxygen depletion, eutrophication, acidification, toxic pollution, poor hygienic state, salinity, and excess suspended matter are among the issues usually included in the concept of water quality problems. This report focuses on inland surface waters, namely on rivers, lakes, and reservoirs, to each of which the problem categories listed above are relevant. The variety of problems, the multidisciplinarity among water quality experts, the wide spectrum of societal water needs, together with the high diversity of computational approaches presently available contribute to the present situation in which applicable methodology is developing from a variety of fronts and directions, among which dynamical, partial differential equation models were taken here in focus. Transport, flow and reaction equations for shallow water bodies are reviewed for 1 and 2-dimensional cases, including an introduction to and illustration of a selection of numerical techniques. Four case studies on eutrophication modeling, and a review and discussion on the application of decision support systems on water quality management are presented thereafter

Ethnographic Causality

This book explores the problem of causal inference when a sufficient number of comparative cases cannot be found, which would permit the application of frequency based models formulated in terms of explanatory causal generalizations