Population ageing and fiscal sustainability in Finland: a stochastic analysis

This study analyses the fiscal sustainability of the Finnish public sector using stochastic projections to describe uncertain future demographic trends and asset yields. While current tax rates are unlikely to yield sufficient tax revenue to finance public expenditure with an ageing population, if developments are as expected, the problem will not be very large. However, there is a small, but not negligible, probability that taxes will need to be raised dramatically, perhaps by over 5 percentage points. Such outcomes, if realised, could destabilise the entire welfare state. The study also analyses three policy options aimed at improving sustainability. Longevity adjustment of pension benefits and introduction of an NDC pension system would reduce the expected problem and narrow the sustainability gap distribution. Under the third option, pension funds would invest more in equities and expect to get higher returns. This policy also limits the sustainability problem, but only under precondition that policymakers in the future can live with substantially larger variation in the value of the funds without adjusting tax rules or benefits.public finance; fiscal sustainability; uncertainty; stochastic simulations

The impact of regulation, ownership and business culture on managing corporate risk within the water industry

Although the specifics of water utility ownership, regulation and management culture have been explored in terms of their impact on economic and customer value, there has been little meaningful engagement with their influence on the risk environment and risk management. Using a literature review as the primary source of information, this paper maps the existing knowledge base onto two critical questions: what are the particular features of regulation, ownership and management culture which influence the risk dynamic, and what are the implications of these relationships in the context of ambitions for resilient organizations? In addressing these queries, the paper considers the mindful choices and adjustments a utility must make to its risk management strategy to manage strategic tensions between efficiency, risk and resilience. The conclusions note a gap in understanding of the drivers required for a paradigm shift within the water sector from a re-active to a pro-active risk management culture. A proposed model of the tensions between reactive risk management and pro-active, adaptive risk management provides a compelling case for measured risk management approaches which are informed by an appreciation of regulation, ownership and business culture. Such approaches will support water authorities in meeting corporate aspirations to become "high reliability" services while retaining the capacity to out-perform financial and service level targets

Ecological-economic viability as a criterion of strong sustainability under uncertainty

Strong sustainability, according to the common definition, requires that different natural and economic capital stocks have to be maintained as physical quantities separately. Yet, in a world of uncertainty this cannot be guaranteed. To therefore define strong sustainability under uncertainty in an operational manner, we propose to use the concept of viability. Viability means that the dierent components and functions of a dynamic, stochastic system at any time remain in a domain where the future existence of these components and functions is guaranteed with suciently high probability. We develop a unifying and general ecological-economic concept of viability that encompasses the traditional ecological and economic notions of viability as special cases. It provides an operational criterion of strong sustainability under conditions of uncertainty. We illustrate this concept and demonstrate its usefulness by applying it to livestock grazing management in semi-arid rangelands.capital (natural and economic), ecological-economic systems, ecosystem services, funds, stocks, sustainability, uncertainty, viability

Recursive Intergenerational Utility in Global Climate Risk Modeling

This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to intertemporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to intertemporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. Ce texte étudie la différence entre l'aversion relative au risque et la résistance à la substitution intertemporelle dans la modélisation du risque climatique. Les préférences récursives stochastiques sont utilisées dans un modèle numérique stylisé utilisant les scénarios préliminaires GIEC 1998 sur l'économie et le climat. On montre qu'une aversion au risque plus forte conduit à augmenter le niveau optimal de taxation de l'énergie. Augmenter la résistance à la substitution intertemporelle a le même effet qu'augmenter le taux d'actualisation, tant que le risque n'est pas trop grand. Nous discutons les implications de ces résultats pour le débat sur l'actualisation et la durabilité sous incertitude.Recursive utility, risk, discounting, sustainability, climate, Utilité récursive, risque, actualisation, durabilité, climat

SUSTAINABILITY AS INTERGENERATIONAL FAIRNESS

This paper presents an economic model of sustainability defined as intergenerational fairness. Assuming that intergenerational fairness is an obligation of each generation, a recursive optimization problem is obtained. The problem has the advantage that uncertainty can readily be incorporated in the model and it can be solved numerically for a wide range of specifications. The possibility of tradeoffs between efficiency and sustainability are discussed. Under plausible conditions, it is show that a sustainability obligation is met only if there is the expectations of economic growth.Agribusiness,

Estimating the Resilience Value of Soil Biodiversity in Agriculture: A Stochastic Simulation Approach

Characteristic of ecosystems is that different organisms can have similar functions and hence provide similar ecosystem services. Consequently functional diversity can maintain the rate of services despite environmental fluctuations. In this paper we present a method for estimating the resilience value of biodiversity. Central to a resilience perspective on biological conservation is consideration of uncertainty about the future. To do this we propose stochastic simulation as a practical approach for valuing resilience due to the ease of incorporating uncertain variables. We demonstrate the approach by developing a stochastic simulation model for valuing soil biodiversity in agriculture. Our results indicate that the long time frames involved in soil processes create a significant incentive to perpetuate unsustainable farming systems and hence there might be a need for policy intervention. However we also show that investing in soil biodiversity conservation can provide significant risk diversification benefits that are not accounted for in a deterministic evaluation. These benefits can be estimated through stochastic simulation.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Sustainable Social Spending

The paper discusses a number of threats to the financial sustainability of social spending: increased internationalization of national economies, gradually higher relative costs of producing a number of human services, the “graying” of the population, slower productivity growth in the private sector, low employment rates, and various types of disincentive effects related to the welfare state itself, including moral hazard. I argue that threats from gradually rising costs of providing human services and disincentive effects of welfare-state arrangements, in particular moral hazard and benefit dependency, are more difficult to deal with than the other threats. I also discuss the choice between ad hoc policy reforms and automatic adjustment mechanisms, delegated to administrative bodies, for dealing with these threats.sustainable fiscal policy, Baumol’s disease, moral hazard, automatic adjustment mechanisms

Pitfalls and potential of institutional change: Rain-index insurance and the sustainability of rangeland management

Rain-index insurance is strongly advocated in many parts of the developing world to help farmers to cope with climatic risk that prevail in (semi-)arid rangelands due to low and highly uncertain rainfall. We present a modeling analysis of how the availability of rain-index insurance affects the sustainability of rangeland management. We show that a rain-index insurance with frequent payos, i.e. a high strike level, leads to the choice of less sustainable grazing management than without insurance available. However, a rain-index insurance with a low to medium strike level enhances the farmer's well-being while not impairing the sustainability of rangeland management.ecological-economic modeling, weather-index insurance, Namibia, grazing management, risk, sustainability, weather-based derivatives

Bush encroachment control and risk management in semi-arid rangelands

We study the role of bush encroachment control for a farmer’s income and income risk in a stochastic ecological-economic model of grazing management in semiarid rangelands. In particular, we study debushing as an instrument of risk management that complements the choice of an adaptive grazing management strategy for that sake. We show that debushing, while being a good practice for increasing the mean pasture productivity and thus expected income, also increases the farmer’s income risk. The optimal extent of debushing for a risk-averse farmer is thus determined from balancing the positive and negative consequences of debushing on intertemporal and stochastic farm income.bush encroachment, expected utility, farm income, intertemporal optimization, risk aversion, risk management, semi-arid rangeland

A bio-economic evaluation of the potential for establishing a commercial fishery on two newly developed stocks: the Ionian Red Shrimp Fishery

It has recently been shown that two deep-water red shrimp species (Aristeus antennatus and Aristaeomorpha foliacea) have the potential to support a viable fishery in the Greek Ionian Sea (eastern Mediterranean). In this article, we investigate (i) the evolution that this newly developed trawl shrimp fishery may undergo when subjected to different management measures, and (ii) the most suitable extraction rates considering the uncertainties about the resource. We further analyse the effects that potential future fuel price increases and changes in the market may have on the fishery. Forecasting the biological and economic consequences of management actions, as well as the effects of market changes on inputs and outputs before they are applied, may help managers select the most suitable management options. We approach the problem by means of bio-economic simulation analysis. The results of this study show that fishing effort can increase by 50-100%, increasing the fleet's profitability without jeopardizing the sustainability of the fishery