Combining process-based models for future biomass assessment at landscape scale

International audienceWe need an integrated assessment of the bioenergy production at landscape scale for at least three main reasons: (1) it is predictable that we will soon have landscapes dedicated to bioenergy productions; (2) a number of “win–win” solutions combining several dedicated energy crops have been suggested for a better use of local climate, soil mosaic and production systems and (3) “well-to-wheels” analyses for the entire bioenergy production chain urge us to optimize the life cycle of bioenergies at large scales. In this context, we argue that the new generation of landscape models allows in silico experiments to estimate bioenergy distributions (in space and time) that are helpful for this integrated assessment of the bioenergy production. The main objective of this paper was to develop a detailed modeling methodology for this purpose. We aimed at illustrating and discussing the use of mechanistic models and their possible association to simulate future distributions of fuel biomass. We applied two separated landscape models dedicated to human-driven agricultural and climate-driven forested neighboring patches. These models were combined in the same theoretical (i.e. virtual) landscape for present as well as future scenarios by associating realistic agricultural production scenarios and B2-IPCC climate scenarios depending on the bioenergy type (crop or forest) concerned in each landscape patch. We then estimated esthetical impacts of our simulations by using 3D visualizations and a quantitative “depth” index to rank them. Results first showed that the transport cost at landscape scale was not correlated to the total biomass production, mainly due to landscape configuration constraints. Secondly, averaged index values of the four simulations were conditioned by agricultural practices, while temporal trends were conditioned by gradual climate changes. Thirdly, the most realistic simulated landscape combining intensive agricultural practices and climate change with atmospheric CO2 concentration increase corresponded to the lowest and unwanted bioenergy conversion inefficiency (the biomass production ratio over 100 years divided by the averaged transport cost) and to the most open landscape. Managing land use and land cover changes at landscape scale is probably one of the most powerful ways to mitigate negative (or magnify positive) effects of climate and human decisions on overall biomass productions

Utilising spatial technologies to support the catchment based approach to landscape management

Much of the UK’s water environment is degraded due to centuries of intensive land management. Driven by the combined pressures of EU targets for water quality, climate change, urbanisation, and population growth the requirement for better management of water resources has led to the adoption of catchment scale management. Despite fewer funding opportunities available to catchment organisations government expectations remain high. Spatial technologies have much to offer to aid collaboration between catchment organisations and stakeholders in their aims to improve the water environment, but research evaluating the application of low cost spatial technologies to support the Catchment Based Approach within the UK has to date been limited. Through three case studies this thesis explored how spatial technologies could support the development of future sustainable and multifunctional river catchment landscapes. The methodology of each case study retained a practitioner focus and evaluated both practitioner interaction with the technologies and the technology development itself. The research examined the strengths and weaknesses of spatial technology in practice and identified barriers to wider adoption by the catchment partnerships and rivers trusts. Results indicate untapped potential for spatial technologies to support the Catchment Based Approach (CaBA) but three barriers to adoption exist. First, there are technological restrictions which need to be overcome with further development. Secondly, significant resources are required, and thirdly, the disruptive influence of technology on institutional structure must be accommodated. Even with the suggested further development the spatial technologies evaluated in this thesis remain outside of the scope of many catchment institutions in terms of skill, understanding of best practice and the resources to support implementation. The future of our water environment and the wider landscape is constrained not by those carrying out the work but the lack of funds and governance frameworks for catchment institutions to work together

Supporting personal world-views in an envisioning system

This is a post-print version published in Environmental Modelling and Software © 2005 Elsevier. http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/422921/description#description. www.elsevier.co

Supporting personal world-views in an envisioning system. Environmental Modelling and

This paper describes an Envisioning System (EvS) designed to help rural communities contemplate landscape level changes. Simulations and models project current conditions into the future according to the constraints of scenario-based planning and available land use choices. Possible futures are represented through visual (2D, 3D and iconic) indicators. This paper defines four distinct world views (romantic, pastoral, ecological, and economic) and then reviews system design in the light of these views. Two key systems aspects discussed are the indicators of environmental conditions, and the styles of data presentation. A developed EvS was tested in two public workshops. In one the world views were explicitly introduced, in the second they emerged naturally through exploration of futures. Our findings suggest that awareness and understanding of four major world-views can help plan and evaluate major software systems while also providing a convenient structure for analysis of results