An advanced risk analysis approach for container port safety evaluation

Risk analysis in seaports plays an increasingly important role in ensuring port operation reliability, maritime transportation safety and supply chain distribution resilience. However, the task is not straightforward given the challenges, including that port safety is affected by multiple factors related to design, installation, operation and maintenance and that traditional risk assessment methods such as quantitative risk analysis cannot sufficiently address uncertainty in failure data. This paper develops an advanced Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) approach through incorporating Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Networks (FRBN) to evaluate the criticality of the hazardous events (HEs) in a container terminal. The rational use of the Degrees of Belief (DoB) in a fuzzy rule base (FRB) facilitates the implementation of the new method in Container Terminal Risk Evaluation (CTRE) in practice. Compared to conventional FMEA methods, the new approach integrates FRB and BN in a complementary manner, in which the former provides a realistic and flexible way to describe input failure information while the latter allows easy updating of risk estimation results and facilitates real-time safety evaluation and dynamic risk-based decision support in container terminals. The proposed approach can also be tailored for wider application in other engineering and management systems, especially when instant risk ranking is required by the stakeholders to measure, predict and improve their system safety and reliability performance

An advanced fuzzy Bayesian-based FMEA approach for assessing maritime supply chain risks

This paper aims to develop a novel model to assess the risk factors of maritime supply chains by incorporating a fuzzy belief rule approach with Bayesian networks. The new model, compared to traditional risk analysis methods, has the capability of improving result accuracy under a high uncertainty in risk data. A real case of a world leading container shipping company is investigated, and the research results reveal that among the most significant risk factors are transportation of dangerous goods, fluctuation of fuel price, fierce competition, unattractive markets, and change of exchange rates in sequence. Such findings will provide useful insights for accident prevention

Analysis of marine conflicts

The traffic conflict technique (TCT) is a powerful technique applied in road traffic safety assessment as a surrogate of the traditional accident data analysis. It has subdued the conceptual and implemental weaknesses of the accident statistics. Although this technique has been applied effectively in road traffic, it has not been practised well in marine traffic even though this traffic system has some distinct advantages in terms of having a monitoring system. This monitoring system can provide navigational information as well as other geometric information of the ships for a larger study area over a longer time period. However, for implementing the TCT in the marine traffic system, it should be examined critically to suit the complex nature of the traffic system. This paper examines the suitability of the TCT to be applied to marine traffic and proposes a framework for a follow up comprehensive conflict study

A risk assessment approach to improve the resilience of a seaport system using Bayesian networks

Over the years, many efforts have been focused on developing methods to design seaport systems, yet disruption still occur because of various human, technical and random natural events. Much of the available data to design these systems are highly uncertain and difficult to obtain due to the number of events with vague and imprecise parameters that need to be modelled. A systematic approach that handles both quantitative and qualitative data, as well as means of updating existing information when new knowledge becomes available is required. Resilience, which is the ability of complex systems to recover quickly after severe disruptions, has been recognised as an important characteristic of maritime operations. This paper presents a modelling approach that employs Bayesian belief networks to model various influencing variables in a seaport system. The use of Bayesian belief networks allows the influencing variables to be represented in a hierarchical structure for collaborative design and modelling of the system. Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) is utilised to evaluate the relative influence of each influencing variable. It is envisaged that the proposed methodology could provide safety analysts with a flexible tool to implement strategies that would contribute to the resilience of maritime systems

Risk Management in the Arctic Offshore: Wicked Problems Require New Paradigms

Recent project-management literature and high-profile disasters—the financial crisis, the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and the Fukushima nuclear accident—illustrate the flaws of traditional risk models for complex projects. This research examines how various groups with interests in the Arctic offshore define risks. The findings link the wicked problem framework and the emerging paradigm of Project Management of the Second Order (PM-2). Wicked problems are problems that are unstructured, complex, irregular, interactive, adaptive, and novel. The authors synthesize literature on the topic to offer strategies for navigating wicked problems, provide new variables to deconstruct traditional risk models, and integrate objective and subjective schools of risk analysis

Quantitative maritime security assessment: a 2020 vision

Maritime security assessment is moving towards a proactive risk-based regime. This opens the way for security analysts and managers to explore and exploit flexible and advanced risk modelling and decision-making approaches in maritime transport. In this article, following a review of maritime security risk assessment, a generic quantitative security assessment methodology is developed. Novel mathematical models for security risk analysis and management are outlined and integrated to demonstrate their use in the developed framework. Such approaches may be used to facilitate security risk modelling and decision making in situations where conventional quantitative risk analysis techniques cannot be appropriately applied. Finally, recommendations on further exploitation of advances in risk and uncertainty modelling technology are suggested with respect to maritime security risk quantification and management

Supply Chain Risk Management in the Container Liner Shipping Industry from a Strategic Point of View

One of the most significant current discussions in the container liner shipping industry (CLSI) is supply chain risk management (SCRM). In recent years, there has been an increasing interest in managing risk and reliability in the container supply chain from many viewpoints. This paper reviews the significant literature related to SCRM in the CLSI from a strategic point of view. By integrating the concept of the CLSI, the planning levels of container liner shipping and the concept of SCRM, questions have been raised about risk and uncertainty arising from the external environments (i.e. country-limited scope) and how can these factors influence the organisational reliability and capability of liner shipping operators (LSOs). Another question concerns how uncertain environments can influence the punctuality of containerships. So far, however, no research has been found that answered these questions which make further research is meaningful. For future research, this paper recommends an extensive assessment of a business environment-based risk and an evaluation of organizational reliability and capability of LSOs from the strategic point of view. Finally, it is worth mentioning that there is a research gap in both industry and academia on how to analyse and predict the punctuality of containerships (i.e. arrival and departure) under uncertain environments. Keywords: supply chain risk management, container liner shipping industry, business-environment based risk, organisational reliability and capability, punctuality

An integrated fuzzy risk assessment for seaport operations

Seaport operations are characterised by high levels of uncertainty, as a result their risk evaluation is a very challenging task. Much of the available data associated with the system’s operations is uncertain and ambiguous, requiring a flexible yet robust approach of handling both quantitative and qualitative data as well as a means of updating existing information as new data becomes available. Conventional risk modelling approaches are considered to be inadequate due to the lack of flexibility and an inappropriate structure for addressing the system’s risks. This paper proposes a novel fuzzy risk assessment approach to facilitating the treatment of uncertainties in seaport operations and to optimise its performance effectiveness in a systematic manner. The methodology consists of a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, an evidential reasoning (ER) approach, fuzzy set theory and expected utility. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is used to analyse the complex structure of seaport operations and determine the weights of risk factors while ER is used to synthesise them. The methodology provides a robust mathematical framework for collaborative modelling of the system and allows for a step by step analysis of the system in a systematic manner. It is envisaged that the proposed approach could provide managers and infrastructure analysts with a flexible tool to enhance the resilience of the system in a systematic manner

Evaluation of e-learning web sites using fuzzy axiomatic design based approach

High quality web site has been generally recognized as a critical enabler to conduct online business. Numerous studies exist in the literature to measure the business performance in relation to web site quality. In this paper, an axiomatic design based approach for fuzzy group decision making is adopted to evaluate the quality of e-learning web sites. Another multi-criteria decision making technique, namely fuzzy TOPSIS, is applied in order to validate the outcome. The methodology proposed in this paper has the advantage of incorporating requirements and enabling reductions in the problem size, as compared to fuzzy TOPSIS. A case study focusing on Turkish e-learning websites is presented, and based on the empirical findings, managerial implications and recommendations for future research are offered