Evolutionary Microeconomics and the Theory of Expectations

This paper sketches a framework for the analysis of expectations in an evolutionary microeconomics. The core proposition is that expectations form a network structure, and that the geometry of that network will provide a suitable guide as to the dynamical behaviour of that network. It is a development towards a theory of the computational processes that construct the data set of expectations. The role of probability theory is examined in this context. Two key issues will be explored: (1) on the nature and stability of expectations when they form as a complex network; and (2), the way in which this may be modelled within a multi-agent simulation platform. It is argued that multi-agent simulation (a-life) techniques provide an expedient analytical environment to study the dynamic nature of mass expectations, as generated or produced objects, in a way that bridges micro and macroeconomics.

Can geocomputation save urban simulation? Throw some agents into the mixture, simmer and wait ...

There are indications that the current generation of simulation models in practical, operational uses has reached the limits of its usefulness under existing specifications. The relative stasis in operational urban modeling contrasts with simulation efforts in other disciplines, where techniques, theories, and ideas drawn from computation and complexity studies are revitalizing the ways in which we conceptualize, understand, and model real-world phenomena. Many of these concepts and methodologies are applicable to operational urban systems simulation. Indeed, in many cases, ideas from computation and complexity studies—often clustered under the collective term of geocomputation, as they apply to geography—are ideally suited to the simulation of urban dynamics. However, there exist several obstructions to their successful use in operational urban geographic simulation, particularly as regards the capacity of these methodologies to handle top-down dynamics in urban systems. This paper presents a framework for developing a hybrid model for urban geographic simulation and discusses some of the imposing barriers against innovation in this field. The framework infuses approaches derived from geocomputation and complexity with standard techniques that have been tried and tested in operational land-use and transport simulation. Macro-scale dynamics that operate from the topdown are handled by traditional land-use and transport models, while micro-scale dynamics that work from the bottom-up are delegated to agent-based models and cellular automata. The two methodologies are fused in a modular fashion using a system of feedback mechanisms. As a proof-of-concept exercise, a micro-model of residential location has been developed with a view to hybridization. The model mixes cellular automata and multi-agent approaches and is formulated so as to interface with meso-models at a higher scale

Agent-Based Computational Economics

Agent-based computational economics (ACE) is the computational study of economies modeled as evolving systems of autonomous interacting agents. Starting from initial conditions, specified by the modeler, the computational economy evolves over time as its constituent agents repeatedly interact with each other and learn from these interactions. ACE is therefore a bottom-up culture-dish approach to the study of economic systems. This study discusses the key characteristics and goals of the ACE methodology. Eight currently active research areas are highlighted for concrete illustration. Potential advantages and disadvantages of the ACE methodology are considered, along with open questions and possible directions for future research.Agent-based computational economics; Autonomous agents; Interaction networks; Learning; Evolution; Mechanism design; Computational economics; Object-oriented programming.

Multi-agent simulations for emergency situations in an airport scenario

This paper presents a multi-agent framework using Net- Logo to simulate humanand collective behaviors during emergency evacuations. Emergency situationappears when an unexpected event occurs. In indoor emergency situation, evacuation plans defined by facility manager explain procedure and safety ways tofollow in an emergency situation. A critical and public scenario is an airportwhere there is an everyday transit of thousands of people. In this scenario theimportance is related with incidents statistics regarding overcrowding andcrushing in public buildings. Simulation has the objective of evaluating buildinglayouts considering several possible configurations. Agents could be based onreactive behavior like avoid danger or follow other agent, or in deliberative behaviorbased on BDI model. This tool provides decision support in a real emergencyscenario like an airport, analyzing alternative solutions to the evacuationprocess.Publicad

Innovation creation and diffusion in a social network: an agent based approach

Market is not only the result of the behaviour of agents, as we can find other forms of contact and communication. Many of them are determined by proximity conditions in some kind of space: in this paper we pay a particular attention to relational space, that is the space determined by the relationships between individuals. The paper starts from a brief account on theoretical and empirical literature on social networks. Social networks represent people and their relationships as networks, in which individuals are nodes and the relationships between them are ties. In particular, graph theory is used in literature in order to demonstrate some properties of social networks summarised in the concept of Small Worlds. The concept may be used to explain how some phenomena involving relations among agents have effects on multiple different geographical scales, involving both the local and the global scale. The empirical section of the paper is introduced by a brief summary of simulation techniques in social science and economics as a way to investigate complexity. The model investigates the dynamics of a population of firms (potential innovators) and consumers interacting in a space defined as a social network. Consumers are represented in the model in order to create a competitive environment pushing enterprises into innovative process (we refer to Schumpeter’s definition): from interaction between consumers and firms innovation emerges as a relational good.Innovation; small world; computational economics; network; complexity

Architecting system of systems: artificial life analysis of financial market behavior

This research study focuses on developing a framework that can be utilized by system architects to understand the emergent behavior of system architectures. The objective is to design a framework that is modular and flexible in providing different ways of modeling sub-systems of System of Systems. At the same time, the framework should capture the adaptive behavior of the system since evolution is one of the key characteristics of System of Systems. Another objective is to design the framework so that humans can be incorporated into the analysis. The framework should help system architects understand the behavior as well as promoters or inhibitors of change in human systems. Computational intelligence tools have been successfully used in analysis of Complex Adaptive Systems. Since a System of Systems is a collection of Complex Adaptive Systems, a framework utilizing combination of these tools can be developed. Financial markets are selected to demonstrate the various architectures developed from the analysis framework --Introduction, page 3

Multi-energy retail market simulation with autonomous intelligent agents

Tese de doutoramento. Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores. 2005. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Port