Water availability and demand analysis in the Kabul River Basin, Afghanistan

Kabul River Basin (KRB), the most populated and highly heterogenic river basin of Afghanistan is the lifeline of millions of people in terms of supplying them with water for agricultural, municipal, and industrial as well as hydropower production purposes. Unfortunately, KRB is facing a multiplicity of governance, management and development relevant challenges for the last couple of decades. Detailed and reliable assessments of land use and land cover, water demand (for different sectors) as well as the available water resources are prerequisites for Integrated Water Resources Management across the basin. To achieve increased accuracy for water availability and demand analysis across the KRB, the study area was segregated into different hydrological and administrative units (provincial level, subbasin level etc.) in order to capture the heterogeneity driven by complex physiographic conditions (mainly due to huge elevation differences) and resulting in diverse cropping pattern at different reaches of the river basin. The innovative part of this study has been the concept of introducing spatial segregation of the large heterogenic river basin and using crop phenological information for evapotranspiration and land cover analysis respectively; it gave a distinct value to the output of this study. Phenologically tuned normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) of Aqua and Terra platforms with moderate resolution (250 m) proved to be very effective in the estimation of the land cover across the KRB with high accuracy. The phenology based segregated spatial analyses of the LULC of KRB with reference to 2003 (the base year of the study) highlighted the change in the ground coverage of main crops across the KRB e.g. wheat, barley, maize and rice. Based on the evaluation of the above results referring to the period 2003 to 2013, the rise in wheat ground coverage has been compensated by the decline in barley cultivation; maize and rice share has been almost consistent among the dominant cereals production in KRB. Upon spatial segregation, across the sub-basins (Alingar, Chak aw Logar, Ghorband aw Panjshir, Gomal, Kabul, Kunar and Shamal) Shamal, Kunar and Kabul showed highest actual evapotranspiration (ETa) throughout the study period of 2003 to 2013. The later three sub-basin host relatively large irrigated areas and production of two crops per year due to relatively favorable climatic and geographic conditions. Besides the agricultural water demand (ETa), water availability estimation through rainfall-runoff modelling by the use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been very useful in data scarce regions like KRB. The application of the hydrological model using remote sensing products as input is the only effective choice in data scarce regions and exhibited results which are required by policy makers and investors for the strategic and sustainable planning and management of land and water resources

Evaluating the potential of using satellite earth observation data to quantify the contribution of riparian total evaporation to streamflow transmission losses.

Doctor of Philosophy in Hydrology. University of KwaZulu-Natal. Pietermaritzburg, 2017.Numerous perennial rivers which flow through arid and semi-arid environments in South Africa, have become severely constrained as water resources abstractions are close to exceeding, or have exceeded the available supply and ecosystem resilience. This is a common phenomenon, as river basins are increasingly developed and often over allocated, in order to maximize socio-economic benefits through consumptive water use, often at the expense of the environment. Thus, managing and maintaining environmental water requirement (EWR) flow allocations in these circumstances becomes increasingly important but all the more challenging, especially during periods of water scarcity. The Letaba River situated in the semi-arid north-eastern region of South Africa is a typical example of a river system in which water governance challenges and infrastructural development have resulted in flows within the river no longer resembling the natural flow regime. This situation has improved to some extent after the establishment of river operating rules and an adaptive operational water resources management system. However, one of the major challenges with successfully implementing and managing EWR flows to date has been the uncertainty regarding the magnitude and influence of streamflow transmission losses (TL’s) on flows within the river system. TL’s along the Letaba are thought to be a significant proportion of streamflow during dry periods and this therefore constrains the ability to meet target EWR flows, as it is often the case that specified EWR releases from the Tzaneen dam are not adequately met further downstream at EWR target gauges. To ensure that water provisions and in particular EWR flows can be managed more effectively and efficiently in the future, it is imperative that the hydrological processes contributing to TL’s are quantified at various spatial and temporal scales. Considering this statement as a point of departure, the overall objective of this thesis was to reduce the uncertainty associated with TL’s by attempting to acquire an improved hydrological process understanding of the natural drivers of loss in this system, so that TL’s along the Letaba River can be more accurately quantified. This research involved, conducting detailed characterizations of hydrological processes along a 14 km reach of the Groot Letaba River which has similar land use activities and hydrological characteristics to the broader river system. Particular emphasis was placed upon establishing the influence of riparian total evaporation (inclusive of open water evaporation) on TL’s, as this process is a major contributing factor to the water balance of arid and semi-arid environments, yet has seldom been incorporated or adequately represented into TL’s estimation procedures. These investigations were centred on evaluating the potential of using a satellite-based approach to acquire spatially explicit estimates of evapotranspiration (ET) during the low flow period in this river system (May to October), which typically represents a critical period with regards to water shortages. For this purpose, the satellite-based surface energy balance (SEBS) model and satellite earth observation data acquired from Landsat and Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to estimate ET. However, the trade-off between the spatial and temporal resolution associated with these data sets can limit the reliability of satellite-based ET modelling (except where occasionally correct). Consequently, the SEBS ET estimates from these data sets were used as inputs to two relatively simplistic approaches (actual crop coefficient or Kcact and output downscaling with linear regression or ODLR) to quantify ET at a moderate spatial resolution (30 m) on a daily time step. These ET estimates were compared against in-situ ET estimates using a one sensor Eddy Covariance system to quantify any uncertainties associated with the satellite-derived estimates. To further investigate spatial and seasonal variations in source contributions to plant water uptake during the investigation period, stable isotope analysis (of 18O and 2H) and a Bayesian mixing model were coupled with the satellite derived ET estimates. The insights acquired from these investigations, were then used to derive baseline estimates of TL’s. This involved using the satellite-derived daily ET time series in conjunction with data obtained from a parallel investigation focusing on quantifying the rapport between surface and sub-surface water storage processes. Initial comparisons of ET estimates acquired using the Kcact and ODLR approaches against ECET were fairly poor yielding RMSE values of; 1.88 and 2.57 mm d-1 and 1.10 and 2.39 mm d-1 (for two replicate transects), respectively. The poor performance of these techniques was largely attributed to the SEBS ET estimates used as inputs to these techniques, as SEBS may overestimate evapotranspiration during conditions of water stress. This limitation was overcome using an evaporative calibration factor (termed the environmental stress factor or ESF) into the original SEBS formulation (SEBS0), to correct for the overestimation of the latent heat flux (LE) and the evaporative fraction (EF). The ESF calibration factor was empirically derived and then integrated into SEBS0, so as to better represent the influence of water stress on the EF and consequently LE. The implementation of the modified version of SEBS (SEBSESF) was shown to significantly improve the estimation of energy fluxes, which in turn resulted in an improved correlation and an increase in the percentage of modelled ET estimates within an acceptable accuracy range (± 15 to 30 %) when compared against in-situ observations. Through the application of this modified version of SEBS (SEBSESF), the ability of the ODLR and Kcact approaches to develop a time-series of daily moderate spatial resolution ET estimates could now be demonstrated. The use of SEBSESF ET estimates as inputs to the Kcact approach was shown to compare most favourably to ECET, yielding correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.79 and 0.60, respectively. With the ability of this satellite-based approach to adequately represent ET within this environment now confirmed. Stable isotope analysis (of 18O and 2H) and a Bayesian mixing model were coupled with the Kcact derived ET estimates, to further investigate spatial and seasonal variations in plant water uptake dynamics. The results of these investigations showed that soil water was the main contributing source to ET. While stream and groundwater use during transpiration was also prevalent within the study area and increased with aridity, the magnitude of the contribution of these sources to transpiration was fairly minimal and not as significant as generally reported in literature. The insights gained from these investigations, as well as those obtained from the quantification of surface and sub-surface water storage processes, assisted in deriving baseline estimates of TL’s along the length of river reach studied. In general, it was found that during the latter stages of the dry season (August to October) TL’s accounted for approximately 5 to 15 % of the flow in the river system, with riparian total evaporation and in particular transpiration the dominant contributing processes to this loss. Through linkages with the recent gazetting of the Letaba Management Class (resource objective setting) and the mandatory implementation of EWR flows, it was shown that flows within the river system were unable to meet low flow targets and are required to be increased in order to fulfil this requirement, whilst simultaneously accounting for TL’s. It should be noted that while the various investigations undertaken in this study enabled the estimation of TL’s and the contribution of processes viz. riparian ET to TL’s, the estimates provided could not be verified due to the lack of reliable upstream (inflow) flow gauge data. Although the investigations and observations detailed in this study provide an understanding of the system for a limited period in time, they would substantially benefit from longer-term monitoring, so that the assumptions and related uncertainties that had to be factored into the analysis could be reduced. Overall the study has detailed key hydrological processes influencing TL’s along the Groot Letaba River, providing invaluable insights on existing knowledge gaps and contributing new knowledge to this research area. It is envisaged that this will enable the establishment of an improved conceptual understanding of the system, which may prove to be beneficial for future hydrological modelling applications in this region

The application of the surface energy balance system model to estimate evapotranspiration in South Africa

Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.In a water scarce country like South Africa with a number of large consumers of water, it is important to estimate evapotranspiration (ET) with a high degree of accuracy. This is especially important in the semi-arid regions where there is an increasing demand for water and a scarce supply thereof. ET varies regionally and seasonally, so knowledge about ET is fundamental to save and secure water for different uses, and to guarantee that water is distributed to water consumers in a sustainable manner. Models to estimate ET have been developed using a combination of meteorological and remote sensing data inputs. In this study, the pre-packaged Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model was used for the first time in the South African environment alongside MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data and validated with eddy covariance data measured in a large apple orchard (11 ha), in the Piketberg area of the Western Cape. Due to the relative infancy of research in this field in South Africa, SEBS is an attractive model choice as it is available as open-source freeware. The model was found to underestimate the sensible heat flux through setting it at the wet limit. Daily ET measured by the eddy covariance system represented 55 to 96% of the SEBS estimate, an overestimation of daily ET. The consistent underestimation of the sensible heat flux was ascribed to sensitivities to the land surface air temperature gradient, the choice of fractional vegetation cover formula as well as the height of the vegetation canopy (3.2 m) relative to weather station reference height (2 m). The methodology was adapted based on the above findings and was applied to a second study area (quaternary catchment P10A, near Grahamstown, Eastern Cape) where two different approaches for deriving surface roughness are applied. It was again demonstrated that the sensible heat flux is sensitive to surface roughness in combination with land surface air temperature gradient and again, the overestimation of daily ET persisted (actual ET being greater than reference ET). It was concluded that in complex environments, at coarse resolution, it is not possible to adequately describe the remote sensing derived input parameters at the correct level of accuracy and at the spatial resolution required for the accurate estimation of the sensible heat flux

An assessment of satellite derived total evaporation data as a data source to the ACRU hydrological model.

M. Sc. Eng. University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg 2014.Hydrological models and tools are often used as decision support systems to inform water resources management. The successful application of these systems is largely dependent on the quality of data being incorporated into them. Accurate information with regards to total evaporation is of paramount importance to water resources managers, as it is a key indicator in determining if water resources are being used for their specific purposes. Due to the inherent spatial limitations associated with conventional techniques to estimate total evaporation, the application of satellite earth observation as a tool to estimate total evaporation is being advocated more frequently. The focus of this Dissertation was to develop an approach which would allow for the incorporation of total evaporation estimates from an existing evaporation model that incorporates satellite earth observation data i.e. the SEBS model, into a hydrological simulation model i.e. ACRU, to simulate streamflow. The SEBS model was first validated in the Komatipoort study site against the surface renewal system. The results of this investigation indicated that the SEBS model over-estimated total evaporation by approximately 47% and produced R2 and RMSE values of 0.33 and 2.19, respectively, when compared to total evaporation estimates obtained from the surface renewal system. Once, the model had been validated, it was then applied to estimate total evaporation for quarternary catchment X23_A for the period 01st December 2011 to 25th November 2012. These estimates were used to create a continuous total evaporation time series, which was used as an input to ACRU to model streamflow. The EVTR3 approach was derived to allow for the incorporation of the aforementioned SEBS total evaporation estimates in ACRU and to estimate streamflow amongst other hydrological parameters. The simulated streamflow for this technique was under-estimated by approximately 10% and produced R2 and RMSE values of 0.41 and 1.05, respectively, when compared to observed streamflow. Although these results appear to be satisfactory at best, similar results were obtained when using the conventional evaporation routine in ACRU to estimate streamflow. This occurrence circuitously highlights the potential of utilizing satellite earth observation data as a data source for a hydrological model

Improved Modeling of Evapotranspiration using Satellite Remote Sensing at Varying Spatial and Temporal Scales

The overall objective of the dissertation was to improve the spatial and temporal representation and retrieval accuracy of evapotranspiration (ET) using satellite imagery. Specifically, (1) aiming at improving the spatial representation of daily net radiation (Rn,24) under rugged terrains, a new algorithm, which accounts for terrain effects on available shortwave radiation throughout a day and utilizes four observations of Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based land surface temperature retrievals to simulate daily net longwave radiation, was developed. The algorithm appears to be capable of capturing heterogeneity in Rn,24 at watershed scales. (2) Most satellite-based ET models are constrained to work under cloud-free conditions. To address this deficiency, an approach of integrating a satellite-based model with a large-scale feedback model was proposed to generate ET time series for all days. Results show that the ET time series estimates can exhibit complementary features between the potential ET and the actual ET at watershed scales. (3) For improving the operability of Two-source Energy Balance (TSEB) which requires computing resistance networks and tuning the Priestley-Taylor parameter involved, a new Two-source Trapezoid Model for ET (TTME) based on deriving theoretical boundaries of evaporative fraction (EF) and the concept of soil surface moisture availability isopleths was developed. It was applied to the Soil Moisture and Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (SMACEX) site in central Iowa, U.S., on three Landsat TM/ETM imagery acquisition dates in 2002. Results show the EF and latent heat flux (LE) estimates with a mean absolute percentage difference (MAPD) of 6.7 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively, relative to eddy covariance tower-based measurements after forcing closure by the Bowen ratio technique. (4) The domain and resolution dependencies of the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and the triangle model were systematically investigated. Derivation of theoretical boundaries of EF for the two models could effectively constrain errors/uncertainties arising from these dependencies. (5) A Modified SEBAL (M-SEBAL) was consequently proposed, in which subjectivity involved in the selection of extreme pixels by the operator is eliminated. The performance of M-SEBAL at the SMACEX site is reasonably well, showing EF and LE estimates with an MAPD of 6.3 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively

Innovation Issues in Water, Agriculture and Food

In a worldwide context of ever-growing competition for water and land, climate change, droughts and man-made water scarcity, and less-participatory water governance, agriculture faces the great challenge of producing enough food for a continually increasing population. In this line, this book provides a broad overview of innovation issues in the complex water–agriculture–food nexus, thus also relative to their interconnections and dependences. Issues refer to different spatial scales, from the field or the farm to the irrigation system or the river basin. Multidisciplinary approaches are used when analyzing the relationships between water, agriculture, and food security. The covered issues are quite diverse and include: innovation in crop evapotranspiration, crop coefficients and modeling; updates in research relative to crop water use and saving; irrigation scheduling and systems design; simulation models to support water and agricultural decisions; issues to cope with water scarcity and climate change; advances in water resource quality and sustainable uses; new tools for mapping and use of remote sensing information; and fostering a participative and inclusive governance of water for food security and population welfare. This book brings together a variety of contributions by leading international experts, professionals, and scholars in those diverse fields. It represents a major synthesis and state-of-the-art on various subjects, thus providing a valuable and updated resource for all researchers, professionals, policymakers, and post-graduate students interested in the complex world of the water–agriculture–food nexus

Advances in Evaporation and Evaporative Demand

The importance of evapotranspiration is well-established in different disciplines such as hydrology, agronomy, climatology, and other geosciences. Reliable estimates of evapotranspiration are also vital to develop criteria for in-season irrigation management, water resource allocation, long-term estimates of water supply, demand and use, design and management of water resources infrastructure, and evaluation of the effect of land use and management changes on the water balance. The objective of this Special Issue is to define and discuss several ET terms, including potential, reference, and actual (crop) ET, and present a wide spectrum of innovative research papers and case studies