Network Capital and Social Trust: Pre-Conditions for ‘Good’ Diversity?

This paper unpicks the assumption that because social networks underpin social capital, they directly create it – more of one inevitably making more of the other. If it were that simple, the sheer quantity of networks criss-crossing a defined urban space would be a proxy measure for the local stock of social capital. Of course the interrelationships are more complex. Two kinds of complication stand out. The first is specific: networks have both quantitative and qualitative dimensions, but the two elements have no necessary bearing on each other. The shape and extent of a network says nothing about the content of the links between its nodes. Certainly the line we draw between any two of them indicates contact and potential connection, but what kind of contact, how often, how trusting, in what circumstances, to what end…? Reliable answers to these questions need more than surface maps or bird’s eye accounts of who goes where, who speaks to whom. The second complication is a general, not to say universal, difficulty. We are stuck with the fact that sociological concepts - networks, social capital and trust included - are ‘only’ abstractions. They are ways of thinking about the apparent chaos of people behaving all over the place – here, to make it worse, in multi-cultural urban environments - but none of them is visible to be measured, weighed or quantified. This does not make the concepts ‘untrue’, and it should not stop them being useful. My hope is that we can find a nuanced perspective which will at least make the complications intelligible. At best, a multi-layered model will account for diversity in the nature of trust; and for variations in the way social capital is hoarded or distributed within and across ethnic boundaries. It would be contribution enough if we were able to specify the conditions which cause social capital, as Puttnam formulates it, to be exclusionary or inclusionary in its effect.Network capital, Social trust, ‘Good’ diversity

The robustness of democratic consensus

In linear models of consensus dynamics, the state of the various agents converges to a value which is a convex combination of the agents' initial states. We call it democratic if in the large scale limit (number of agents going to infinity) the vector of convex weights converges to 0 uniformly. Democracy is a relevant property which naturally shows up when we deal with opinion dynamic models and cooperative algorithms such as consensus over a network: it says that each agent's measure/opinion is going to play a negligeable role in the asymptotic behavior of the global system. It can be seen as a relaxation of average consensus, where all agents have exactly the same weight in the final value, which becomes negligible for a large number of agents.Comment: 13 pages, 2 fig

Self-Evaluation Applied Mathematics 2003-2008 University of Twente

This report contains the self-study for the research assessment of the Department of Applied Mathematics (AM) of the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science (EEMCS) at the University of Twente (UT). The report provides the information for the Research Assessment Committee for Applied Mathematics, dealing with mathematical sciences at the three universities of technology in the Netherlands. It describes the state of affairs pertaining to the period 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2008

Naïve Learning in Social Networks: Convergence, Influence and Wisdom of Crowds

We study learning and influence in a setting where agents communicate according to an arbitrary social network and naïvely update their beliefs by repeatedly taking weighted averages of their neighbors’ opinions. A focus is on conditions under which beliefs of all agents in large societies converge to the truth, despite their naïve updating. We show that this happens if and only if the influence of the most influential agent in the society is vanishing as the society grows. Using simple examples, we identify two main obstructions which can prevent this. By ruling out these obstructions, we provide general structural conditions on the social network that are sufficient for convergence to truth. In addition, we show how social influence changes when some agents redistribute their trust, and we provide a complete characterization of the social networks for which there is a convergence of beliefs. Finally, we survey some recent structural results on the speed of convergence and relate these to issues of segregation, polarization and propaganda.Social Networks, Learning, Diffusion, Bounded Rationality

Essays on Modern Econometrics and Machine Learning

Diese Dissertation behandelt verschiedene Aspekte moderner Ökonometrie und Machine Learnings. Kapitel 2 stellt einen neuen Schätzer für die Regressionsparameter in einem Paneldatenmodell mit interaktiven festen Effekten vor. Eine Besonderheit unserer Methode ist die Modellierung der factor loadings durch nichtparametrische Funktionen. Wir zeigen die root-NT-Konvergenz sowie die asymptotische Normalverteilung unseres Schätzers. Kapitel 3 betrachtet die rekursive Schätzung von Quantilen mit Hilfe des stochastic gradient descent (SGD) Algorithmus mit Polyak-Ruppert Mittelwertbildung. Der Algorithmus ist rechnerisch und Speicher-effizient verglichen mit herkömmlichen Schätzmethoden. Unser Fokus ist die Untersuchung des nichtasymptotischen Verhaltens, indem wir eine exponentielle Wahrscheinlichkeitsungleichung zeigen. In Kapitel 4 stellen wir eine neue Methode zur Kalibrierung von conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) basierend auf Quantilregression mittels Neural Networks vor. Wir modellieren systemische Spillovereffekte in einem Netzwerk von systemrelevanten Finanzinstituten. Eine Out-of-Sample Analyse zeigt eine klare Verbesserung im Vergleich zu einer linearen Grundspezifikation. Im Vergleich mit bestehenden Risikomaßen eröffnet unsere Methode eine neue Perspektive auf systemisches Risiko. In Kapitel 5 modellieren wir die gemeinsame Dynamik von Kryptowährungen in einem nicht-stationären Kontext. Um eine Analyse in einem dynamischen Rahmen zu ermöglichen, stellen wir eine neue vector error correction model (VECM) Spezifikation vor, die wir COINtensity VECM nennen.This thesis focuses on different aspects of the union of modern econometrics and machine learning. Chapter 2 considers a new estimator of the regression parameters in a panel data model with unobservable interactive fixed effects. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach is to model the factor loadings as a nonparametric function. We show that our estimator is root-NT-consistent and asymptotically normal, as well that it reaches the semiparametric efficiency bound under the assumption of i.i.d. errors. Chapter 3 is concerned with the recursive estimation of quantiles using the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) algorithm with Polyak-Ruppert averaging. The algorithm offers a computationally and memory efficient alternative to the usual empirical estimator. Our focus is on studying the nonasymptotic behavior by providing exponentially decreasing tail probability bounds under minimal assumptions. In Chapter 4 we propose a novel approach to calibrate the conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) of financial institutions based on neural network quantile regression. We model systemic risk spillover effects in a network context across banks by considering the marginal effects of the quantile regression procedure. An out-of-sample analysis shows great performance compared to a linear baseline specification, signifying the importance that nonlinearity plays for modelling systemic risk. A comparison to existing network-based risk measures reveals that our approach offers a new perspective on systemic risk. In Chapter 5 we aim to model the joint dynamics of cryptocurrencies in a nonstationary setting. In particular, we analyze the role of cointegration relationships within a large system of cryptocurrencies in a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. To enable analysis in a dynamic setting, we propose the COINtensity VECM, a nonlinear VECM specification accounting for a varying system-wide cointegration exposure

Neuronal boost to evolutionary dynamics

Standard evolutionary dynamics is limited by the constraints of the genetic system. A central message of evolutionary neurodynamics is that evolutionary dynamics in the brain can happen in a neuronal niche in real time, despite the fact that neurons do not reproduce. We show that Hebbian learning and structural synaptic plasticity broaden the capacity for informational replication and guided variability provided a neuronally plausible mechanism of replication is in place. The synergy between learning and selection is more efficient than the equivalent search by mutation selection. We also consider asymmetric landscapes and show that the learning weights become correlated with the fitness gradient. That is, the neuronal complexes learn the local properties of the fitness landscape, resulting in the generation of variability directed towards the direction of fitness increase, as if mutations in a genetic pool were drawn such that they would increase reproductive success. Evolution might thus be more efficient within evolved brains than among organisms out in the wild