A STRUCTURED RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT MODEL: AN APPLICATION TO HIGH VOLTAGE MOTORS

Motors are one of the vital equipment and generally the higher in numbers in oil and gas processing facilities. The primary function is to drive the process equipment such as compressors, fans, pumps etc. Unreliability of the motors is a threat to safety but also to production loss and high operating expenditure. Motors experience higher failure rates and maintenance costs with age due to lower focus during useful life periods. In order to properly address the long-term reliability and maintainability of the motors and associated subsystems, this paper aims to propose a structured methodology and set of tools to ensure effective assessment. The proposed model mainly consists of data collection, analysis, assessment, financial analysis and later developed actions to properly address the concerns. Equipment failure and repair data is a challenge to any reliability assessment; hence, proposed methodology was introduced to collect, verify and validate the data. Later, multiple tools such as Pareto Analysis, Failure Mode and Effect Analysis and Root Cause Analysis were used to perform a detailed assessment. Weibull analysis was also explored to understand the failure modes, which ultimately helped in improving the availability of the motors. The proposed methodology has been applied to high-voltage motors to observe the effectiveness of the tools and proposed model in addressing reliability and maintainability. The results show significant reliability improvements of 12% (from 58% to 70%) and prove that the structured method can be effectively used in complex process facilities with significant benefits

Enhancement of Heavy-Duty Engines Performance and Reliability Using Cylinder Pressure Information

Sustainability issues are becoming increasingly prominent in applications requiring the use of heavy-duty engines. Therefore, it is important to cut emissions and costs of such engines to re-duce the carbon footprint and keep the operating expenses under control. Even if for some applications a battery electric equipment is introduced, the diesel-equipped machinery is still popular, thanks to the longer operating range. In this field, the open pit mines are a good example. In fact, the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of the mining equipment is highly impacted by fuel consumption (engine efficiency) and reliability (service interval and en-gine life). The present work is focused on efficiency enhancements achievable through the ap-plication of a combustion control strategy based on the in-cylinder pressure information. The benefits are mainly due to two factors. First, the negative effects of injectors ageing can be com-pensated. Second, cylindrical online calibration of the control parameters enables the combus-tion system optimization. The article is divided into two parts. The first part describes the tool-chain that is designed for the real time application of the combustion control system, while the second part concerns the algorithm that would be implemented on the Engine Control Unit (ECU) to leverage the in-cylinder pressure information. The assessment of the potential benefits and feasibility of the combustion control algorithm is carried out in a Software in the Loop (SiL) environment, simulating both the developed control strategy and the engine behavior (Liebherr D98). Our goal is to validate the control algorithm through SiL simulations. The results of the validation process demonstrate the effectiveness of the control strategy: firstly, cylinder dispari-ty on IMEP (+/-2.5% in reference conditions) is virtually canceled. Secondly, MFB50 is individual-ly optimized, equalizing Pmax among the cylinders (+/-4% for the standard calibration), without exceeding the reliability threshold. In addition to this, BSFC is reduced by 1%, thanks to the ac-curate cylinder-by-cylinder calibration. Finally, ageing effects or fuel variations can be implicitly compensated, keeping optimal performance thorough engine life

Remaining useful life estimation for deteriorating systems with time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones

AbstractDynamic time-varying operational conditions pose great challenge to the estimation of system remaining useful life (RUL) for the deteriorating systems. This paper presents a method based on probabilistic and stochastic approaches to estimate system RUL for periodically monitored degradation processes with dynamic time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones. The method assumes that the degradation rate is influenced by specific operational condition and moreover, the transition between different operational conditions plays the most important role in affecting the degradation process. These operational conditions are assumed to evolve as a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC). The failure thresholds are also determined by specific operational conditions and described as different failure zones. The 2008 PHM Conference Challenge Data is utilized to illustrate our method, which contains mass sensory signals related to the degradation process of a commercial turbofan engine. The RUL estimation method using the sensor measurements of a single sensor was first developed, and then multiple vital sensors were selected through a particular optimization procedure in order to increase the prediction accuracy. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are presented in a comparison with existing methods for the same dataset

Evaluating maintenance policies by quantitative modeling and analysis

International audienceThe growing importance of maintenance in the evolving industrial scenario and the technological advancements of the recent years have yielded the development of modern maintenance strategies such as the condition-based maintenance (CBM) and the predictive maintenance (PrM). In practice, assessing whether these strategies really improve the maintenance performance becomes a funda-mental issue. In the present work, this is addressed with reference to an example concerning the stochastic crack growth of a generic mechanical component subject to fatigue degradation. It is shown that modeling and analysis provide information useful for setting a maintenance policy

Development of an advanced artificial intelligent reliability analysis tool to enhance ship operations and maintenance activities

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Prognostic Algorithms for Condition Monitoring and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

To enable the benets of a truly condition-based maintenance philosophy to be realised, robust, accurate and reliable algorithms, which provide maintenance personnel with the necessary information to make informed maintenance decisions, will be key. This thesis focuses on the development of such algorithms, with a focus on semiconductor manufacturing and wind turbines. An introduction to condition-based maintenance is presented which reviews dierent types of maintenance philosophies and describes the potential benets which a condition- based maintenance philosophy will deliver to operators of critical plant and machinery. The issues and challenges involved in developing condition-based maintenance solutions are discussed and a review of previous approaches and techniques in fault diagnostics and prognostics is presented. The development of a condition monitoring system for dry vacuum pumps used in semi- conductor manufacturing is presented. A notable feature is that upstream process mea- surements from the wafer processing chamber were incorporated in the development of a solution. In general, semiconductor manufacturers do not make such information avail- able and this study identies the benets of information sharing in the development of condition monitoring solutions, within the semiconductor manufacturing domain. The developed solution provides maintenance personnel with the ability to identify, quantify, track and predict the remaining useful life of pumps suering from degradation caused by pumping large volumes of corrosive uorine gas. A comprehensive condition monitoring solution for thermal abatement systems is also presented. As part of this work, a multiple model particle ltering algorithm for prog- nostics is developed and tested. The capabilities of the proposed prognostic solution for addressing the uncertainty challenges in predicting the remaining useful life of abatement systems, subject to uncertain future operating loads and conditions, is demonstrated. Finally, a condition monitoring algorithm for the main bearing on large utility scale wind turbines is developed. The developed solution exploits data collected by onboard supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems in wind turbines. As a result, the developed solution can be integrated into existing monitoring systems, at no additional cost. The potential for the application of multiple model particle ltering algorithm to wind turbine prognostics is also demonstrated

A data analytics approach to gas turbine prognostics and health management

As a consequence of the recent deregulation in the electrical power production industry, there has been a shift in the traditional ownership of power plants and the way they are operated. To hedge their business risks, the many new private entrepreneurs enter into long-term service agreement (LTSA) with third parties for their operation and maintenance activities. As the major LTSA providers, original equipment manufacturers have invested huge amounts of money to develop preventive maintenance strategies to minimize the occurrence of costly unplanned outages resulting from failures of the equipments covered under LTSA contracts. As a matter of fact, a recent study by the Electric Power Research Institute estimates the cost benefit of preventing a failure of a General Electric 7FA or 9FA technology compressor at $10 to$20 million. Therefore, in this dissertation, a two-phase data analytics approach is proposed to use the existing monitoring gas path and vibration sensors data to first develop a proactive strategy that systematically detects and validates catastrophic failure precursors so as to avoid the failure; and secondly to estimate the residual time to failure of the unhealthy items. For the first part of this work, the time-frequency technique of the wavelet packet transforms is used to de-noise the noisy sensor data. Next, the time-series signal of each sensor is decomposed to perform a multi-resolution analysis to extract its features. After that, the probabilistic principal component analysis is applied as a data fusion technique to reduce the number of the potentially correlated multi-sensors measurement into a few uncorrelated principal components. The last step of the failure precursor detection methodology, the anomaly detection decision, is in itself a multi-stage process. The obtained principal components from the data fusion step are first combined into a one-dimensional reconstructed signal representing the overall health assessment of the monitored systems. Then, two damage indicators of the reconstructed signal are defined and monitored for defect using a statistical process control approach. Finally, the Bayesian evaluation method for hypothesis testing is applied to a computed threshold to test for deviations from the healthy band. To model the residual time to failure, the anomaly severity index and the anomaly duration index are defined as defects characteristics. Two modeling techniques are investigated for the prognostication of the survival time after an anomaly is detected: the deterministic regression approach, and parametric approximation of the non-parametric Kaplan-Meier plot estimator. It is established that the deterministic regression provides poor prediction estimation. The non parametric survival data analysis technique of the Kaplan-Meier estimator provides the empirical survivor function of the data set comprised of both non-censored and right censored data. Though powerful because no a-priori predefined lifetime distribution is made, the Kaplan-Meier result lacks the flexibility to be transplanted to other units of a given fleet. The parametric analysis of survival data is performed with two popular failure analysis distributions: the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution. The conclusion from the parametric analysis of the Kaplan-Meier plot is that the larger the data set, the more accurate is the prognostication ability of the residual time to failure model.PhDCommittee Chair: Mavris, Dimitri; Committee Member: Jiang, Xiaomo; Committee Member: Kumar, Virendra; Committee Member: Saleh, Joseph; Committee Member: Vittal, Sameer; Committee Member: Volovoi, Vital

A new dynamic predictive maintenance framework using deep learning for failure prognostics

In Prognostic Health and Management (PHM) literature, the predictive maintenance studies can be classified into two groups. The first group focuses on the prognostics step but does not consider the maintenance decisions. The second group addresses the maintenance optimization question based on the assumptions that the prognostics information or the degradation models of the system are already known. However, none of the two groups provides a complete framework (from data-driven prognostics to maintenance decisions) investigating the impact of the imperfect prognostics on maintenance decision. Therefore, this paper aims to fill this gap of literature. It presents a novel dynamic predicive maintenance framework based on sensor measurements. In this framework, the prognostics step, based on the Long Short-Term Memory network, is oriented towards the requirements of operation planners. It provides the probabilities that the system can fail in different time horizons to decide the moment for preparing and performing maintenance activities. The proposed framework is validated on a real application case study. Its performance is highlighted when compared with two benchmark maintenance policies: classical periodic and ideal predicted maintenance. In addition, the impact of the imperfect prognostics information on maintenance decisions is discussed in this paper