Time series prediction and forecasting using Deep learning Architectures

Nature brings time series data everyday and everywhere, for example, weather data, physiological signals and biomedical signals, financial and business recordings. Predicting the future observations of a collected sequence of historical observations is called time series forecasting. Forecasts are essential, considering the fact that they guide decisions in many areas of scientific, industrial and economic activity such as in meteorology, telecommunication, finance, sales and stock exchange rates. A massive amount of research has already been carried out by researchers over many years for the development of models to improve the time series forecasting accuracy. The major aim of time series modelling is to scrupulously examine the past observation of time series and to develop an appropriate model which elucidate the inherent behaviour and pattern existing in time series. The behaviour and pattern related to various time series may possess different conventions and infact requires specific countermeasures for modelling. Consequently, retaining the neural networks to predict a set of time series of mysterious domain remains particularly challenging. Time series forecasting remains an arduous problem despite the fact that there is substantial improvement in machine learning approaches. This usually happens due to some factors like, different time series may have different flattering behaviour. In real world time series data, the discriminative patterns residing in the time series are often distorted by random noise and affected by high-frequency perturbations. The major aim of this thesis is to contribute to the study and expansion of time series prediction and multistep ahead forecasting method based on deep learning algorithms. Time series forecasting using deep learning models is still in infancy as compared to other research areas for time series forecasting.Variety of time series data has been considered in this research. We explored several deep learning architectures on the sequential data, such as Deep Belief Networks (DBNs), Stacked AutoEncoders (SAEs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Moreover, we also proposed two different new methods based on muli-step ahead forecasting for time series data. The comparison with state of the art methods is also exhibited. The research work conducted in this thesis makes theoretical, methodological and empirical contributions to time series prediction and multi-step ahead forecasting by using Deep Learning Architectures

AN OVERVIEW OF DEEP LEARNING TECHNIQUES FOR SHORT-TERM ELECTRICITY LOAD FORECASTING

This paper presents an overview of some Deep Learning (DL) techniques applicable to forecasting electricity consumptions, especially in the short-term horizon. The paper introduced key parts of four DL architectures including the RNN, LSTM, CNN and SAE, which are recently adopted in implementing Short-term (electricity) Load Forecasting problems. It further presented a model approach for solving such problems. The eventual implication of the study is to present an insightful direction about concepts of the DL methods for forecasting electricity loads in the short-term period, especially to a potential researcher in quest of solving similar problems

Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Hierarchical feature extraction from spatiotemporal data for cyber-physical system analytics

With the advent of ubiquitous sensing, robust communication and advanced computation, data-driven modeling is increasingly becoming popular for many engineering problems. Eliminating difficulties of physics-based modeling, avoiding simplifying assumptions and ad hoc empirical models are significant among many advantages of data-driven approaches, especially for large-scale complex systems. While classical statistics and signal processing algorithms have been widely used by the engineering community, advanced machine learning techniques have not been sufficiently explored in this regard. This study summarizes various categories of machine learning tools that have been applied or may be a candidate for addressing engineering problems. While there are increasing number of machine learning algorithms, the main steps involved in applying such techniques to the problems consist in: data collection and pre-processing, feature extraction, model training and inference for decision-making. To support decision-making processes in many applications, hierarchical feature extraction is key. Among various feature extraction principles, recent studies emphasize hierarchical approaches of extracting salient features that is carried out at multiple abstraction levels from data. In this context, the focus of the dissertation is towards developing hierarchical feature extraction algorithms within the framework of machine learning in order to solve challenging cyber-physical problems in various domains such as electromechanical systems and agricultural systems. Furthermore, the feature extraction techniques are described using the spatial, temporal and spatiotemporal data types collected from the systems. The wide applicability of such features in solving some selected real-life domain problems are demonstrated throughout this study

Advanced energy management strategies for HVAC systems in smart buildings

The efficacy of the energy management systems at dealing with energy consumption in buildings has been a topic with a growing interest in recent years due to the ever-increasing global energy demand and the large percentage of energy being currently used by buildings. The scale of this sector has attracted research effort with the objective of uncovering potential improvement avenues and materializing them with the help of recent technological advances that could be exploited to lower the energetic footprint of buildings. Specifically, in the area of heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations, the availability of large amounts of historical data in building management software suites makes possible the study of how resource-efficient these systems really are when entrusted with ensuring occupant comfort. Actually, recent reports have shown that there is a gap between the ideal operating performance and the performance achieved in practice. Accordingly, this thesis considers the research of novel energy management strategies for heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations in buildings, aimed at narrowing the performance gap by employing data-driven methods to increase their context awareness, allowing management systems to steer the operation towards higher efficiency. This includes the advancement of modeling methodologies capable of extracting actionable knowledge from historical building behavior databases, through load forecasting and equipment operational performance estimation supporting the identification of a building’s context and energetic needs, and the development of a generalizable multi-objective optimization strategy aimed at meeting these needs while minimizing the consumption of energy. The experimental results obtained from the implementation of the developed methodologies show a significant potential for increasing energy efficiency of heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems while being sufficiently generic to support their usage in different installations having diverse equipment. In conclusion, a complete analysis and actuation framework was developed, implemented and validated by means of an experimental database acquired from a pilot plant during the research period of this thesis. The obtained results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed standalone contributions, and as a whole represent a suitable solution for helping to increase the performance of heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations without affecting the comfort of their occupants.L’eficàcia dels sistemes de gestió d’energia per afrontar el consum d’energia en edificis és un tema que ha rebut un interès en augment durant els darrers anys a causa de la creixent demanda global d’energia i del gran percentatge d’energia que n’utilitzen actualment els edificis. L’escala d’aquest sector ha atret l'atenció de nombrosa investigació amb l’objectiu de descobrir possibles vies de millora i materialitzar-les amb l’ajuda de recents avenços tecnològics que es podrien aprofitar per disminuir les necessitats energètiques dels edificis. Concretament, en l’àrea d’instal·lacions de calefacció, ventilació i climatització, la disponibilitat de grans bases de dades històriques als sistemes de gestió d’edificis fa possible l’estudi de com d'eficients són realment aquests sistemes quan s’encarreguen d'assegurar el confort dels seus ocupants. En realitat, informes recents indiquen que hi ha una diferència entre el rendiment operatiu ideal i el rendiment generalment assolit a la pràctica. En conseqüència, aquesta tesi considera la investigació de noves estratègies de gestió de l’energia per a instal·lacions de calefacció, ventilació i climatització en edificis, destinades a reduir la diferència de rendiment mitjançant l’ús de mètodes basats en dades per tal d'augmentar el seu coneixement contextual, permetent als sistemes de gestió dirigir l’operació cap a zones de treball amb un rendiment superior. Això inclou tant l’avanç de metodologies de modelat capaces d’extreure coneixement de bases de dades de comportaments històrics d’edificis a través de la previsió de càrregues de consum i l’estimació del rendiment operatiu dels equips que recolzin la identificació del context operatiu i de les necessitats energètiques d’un edifici, tant com del desenvolupament d’una estratègia d’optimització multi-objectiu generalitzable per tal de minimitzar el consum d’energia mentre es satisfan aquestes necessitats energètiques. Els resultats experimentals obtinguts a partir de la implementació de les metodologies desenvolupades mostren un potencial important per augmentar l'eficiència energètica dels sistemes de climatització, mentre que són prou genèrics com per permetre el seu ús en diferents instal·lacions i suportant equips diversos. En conclusió, durant aquesta tesi es va desenvolupar, implementar i validar un marc d’anàlisi i actuació complet mitjançant una base de dades experimental adquirida en una planta pilot durant el període d’investigació de la tesi. Els resultats obtinguts demostren l’eficàcia de les contribucions de manera individual i, en conjunt, representen una solució idònia per ajudar a augmentar el rendiment de les instal·lacions de climatització sense afectar el confort dels seus ocupantsPostprint (published version

Advanced energy management strategies for HVAC systems in smart buildings

The efficacy of the energy management systems at dealing with energy consumption in buildings has been a topic with a growing interest in recent years due to the ever-increasing global energy demand and the large percentage of energy being currently used by buildings. The scale of this sector has attracted research effort with the objective of uncovering potential improvement avenues and materializing them with the help of recent technological advances that could be exploited to lower the energetic footprint of buildings. Specifically, in the area of heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations, the availability of large amounts of historical data in building management software suites makes possible the study of how resource-efficient these systems really are when entrusted with ensuring occupant comfort. Actually, recent reports have shown that there is a gap between the ideal operating performance and the performance achieved in practice. Accordingly, this thesis considers the research of novel energy management strategies for heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations in buildings, aimed at narrowing the performance gap by employing data-driven methods to increase their context awareness, allowing management systems to steer the operation towards higher efficiency. This includes the advancement of modeling methodologies capable of extracting actionable knowledge from historical building behavior databases, through load forecasting and equipment operational performance estimation supporting the identification of a building’s context and energetic needs, and the development of a generalizable multi-objective optimization strategy aimed at meeting these needs while minimizing the consumption of energy. The experimental results obtained from the implementation of the developed methodologies show a significant potential for increasing energy efficiency of heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems while being sufficiently generic to support their usage in different installations having diverse equipment. In conclusion, a complete analysis and actuation framework was developed, implemented and validated by means of an experimental database acquired from a pilot plant during the research period of this thesis. The obtained results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed standalone contributions, and as a whole represent a suitable solution for helping to increase the performance of heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations without affecting the comfort of their occupants.L’eficàcia dels sistemes de gestió d’energia per afrontar el consum d’energia en edificis és un tema que ha rebut un interès en augment durant els darrers anys a causa de la creixent demanda global d’energia i del gran percentatge d’energia que n’utilitzen actualment els edificis. L’escala d’aquest sector ha atret l'atenció de nombrosa investigació amb l’objectiu de descobrir possibles vies de millora i materialitzar-les amb l’ajuda de recents avenços tecnològics que es podrien aprofitar per disminuir les necessitats energètiques dels edificis. Concretament, en l’àrea d’instal·lacions de calefacció, ventilació i climatització, la disponibilitat de grans bases de dades històriques als sistemes de gestió d’edificis fa possible l’estudi de com d'eficients són realment aquests sistemes quan s’encarreguen d'assegurar el confort dels seus ocupants. En realitat, informes recents indiquen que hi ha una diferència entre el rendiment operatiu ideal i el rendiment generalment assolit a la pràctica. En conseqüència, aquesta tesi considera la investigació de noves estratègies de gestió de l’energia per a instal·lacions de calefacció, ventilació i climatització en edificis, destinades a reduir la diferència de rendiment mitjançant l’ús de mètodes basats en dades per tal d'augmentar el seu coneixement contextual, permetent als sistemes de gestió dirigir l’operació cap a zones de treball amb un rendiment superior. Això inclou tant l’avanç de metodologies de modelat capaces d’extreure coneixement de bases de dades de comportaments històrics d’edificis a través de la previsió de càrregues de consum i l’estimació del rendiment operatiu dels equips que recolzin la identificació del context operatiu i de les necessitats energètiques d’un edifici, tant com del desenvolupament d’una estratègia d’optimització multi-objectiu generalitzable per tal de minimitzar el consum d’energia mentre es satisfan aquestes necessitats energètiques. Els resultats experimentals obtinguts a partir de la implementació de les metodologies desenvolupades mostren un potencial important per augmentar l'eficiència energètica dels sistemes de climatització, mentre que són prou genèrics com per permetre el seu ús en diferents instal·lacions i suportant equips diversos. En conclusió, durant aquesta tesi es va desenvolupar, implementar i validar un marc d’anàlisi i actuació complet mitjançant una base de dades experimental adquirida en una planta pilot durant el període d’investigació de la tesi. Els resultats obtinguts demostren l’eficàcia de les contribucions de manera individual i, en conjunt, representen una solució idònia per ajudar a augmentar el rendiment de les instal·lacions de climatització sense afectar el confort dels seus ocupant

Long short-term memory stacking model to predict the number of cases and deaths caused by COVID-19

info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio