A hybrid particle-ensemble Kalman filter for problems with medium nonlinearity

A hybrid particle ensemble Kalman filter is developed for problems with medium non-Gaussianity, i.e. problems where the prior is very non-Gaussian but the posterior is approximately Gaussian. Such situations arise, e.g., when nonlinear dynamics produce a non-Gaussian forecast but a tight Gaussian likelihood leads to a nearly-Gaussian posterior. The hybrid filter starts by factoring the likelihood. First the particle filter assimilates the observations with one factor of the likelihood to produce an intermediate prior that is close to Gaussian, and then the ensemble Kalman filter completes the assimilation with the remaining factor. How the likelihood gets split between the two stages is determined in such a way to ensure that the particle filter avoids collapse, and particle degeneracy is broken by a mean-preserving random orthogonal transformation. The hybrid is tested in a simple two-dimensional (2D) problem and a multiscale system of ODEs motivated by the Lorenz-`96 model. In the 2D problem it outperforms both a pure particle filter and a pure ensemble Kalman filter, and in the multiscale Lorenz-`96 model it is shown to outperform a pure ensemble Kalman filter, provided that the ensemble size is large enough.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure

A Two-stage Particle Filter in High Dimension

Particle Filter (PF) is a popular sequential Monte Carlo method to deal with non-linear non-Gaussian filtering problems. However, it suffers from the so-called curse of dimensionality in the sense that the required number of particle (needed for a reasonable performance) grows exponentially with the dimension of the system. One of the techniques found in the literature to tackle this is to split the high-dimensional state in to several lower dimensional (sub)spaces and run a particle filter on each subspace, the so-called multiple particle filter (MPF). It is also well-known from the literature that a good proposal density can help to improve the performance of a particle filter. In this article, we propose a new particle filter consisting of two stages. The first stage derives a suitable proposal density that incorporates the information from the measurements. In the second stage a PF is employed with the proposal density obtained in the first stage. Through a simulated example we show that in high-dimensional systems, the proposed two-stage particle filter performs better than the MPF with much fewer number of particles

Novel Computational Methods for State Space Filtering

The state-space formulation for time-dependent models has been long used invarious applications in science and engineering. While the classical Kalman filter(KF) provides optimal posterior estimation under linear Gaussian models, filteringin nonlinear and non-Gaussian environments remains challenging.Based on the Monte Carlo approximation, the classical particle filter (PF) can providemore precise estimation under nonlinear non-Gaussian models. However, it suffers fromparticle degeneracy. Drawing from optimal transport theory, the stochastic map filter(SMF) accommodates a solution to this problem, but its performance is influenced bythe limited flexibility of nonlinear map parameterisation. To account for these issues,a hybrid particle-stochastic map filter (PSMF) is first proposed in this thesis, wherethe two parts of the split likelihood are assimilated by the PF and SMF, respectively.Systematic resampling and smoothing are employed to alleviate the particle degeneracycaused by the PF. Furthermore, two PSMF variants based on the linear and nonlinearmaps (PSMF-L and PSMF-NL) are proposed, and their filtering performance is comparedwith various benchmark filters under different nonlinear non-Gaussian models.Although achieving accurate filtering results, the particle-based filters require expensive computations because of the large number of samples involved. Instead, robustKalman filters (RKFs) provide efficient solutions for the linear models with heavy-tailednoise, by adopting the recursive estimation framework of the KF. To exploit the stochasticcharacteristics of the noise, the use of heavy-tailed distributions which can fit variouspractical noises constitutes a viable solution. Hence, this thesis also introduces a novelRKF framework, RKF-SGαS, where the signal noise is assumed to be Gaussian and theheavy-tailed measurement noise is modelled by the sub-Gaussian α-stable (SGαS) distribution. The corresponding joint posterior distribution of the state vector and auxiliaryrandom variables is estimated by the variational Bayesian (VB) approach. Four differentminimum mean square error (MMSE) estimators of the scale function are presented.Besides, the RKF-SGαS is compared with the state-of-the-art RKFs under three kinds ofheavy-tailed measurement noises, and the simulation results demonstrate its estimationaccuracy and efficiency.One notable limitation of the proposed RKF-SGαS is its reliance on precise modelparameters, and substantial model errors can potentially impede its filtering performance. Therefore, this thesis also introduces a data-driven RKF method, referred to asRKFnet, which combines the conventional RKF framework with a deep learning technique. An unsupervised scheduled sampling technique (USS) is proposed to improve theistability of the training process. Furthermore, the advantages of the proposed RKFnetare quantified with respect to various traditional RKFs

Measurement of Through-Going Particle Momentum By Means Of Multiple Scattering With The ICARUS T600 TPC

The ICARUS collaboration has demonstrated, following the operation of a 600 ton (T600) detector at shallow depth, that the technique based on liquid Argon TPCs is now mature. The study of rare events, not contemplated in the Standard Model, can greatly benefit from the use of this kind of detectors. In particular, a deeper understanding of atmospheric neutrino properties will be obtained thanks to the unprecedented quality of the data ICARUS provides. However if we concentrate on the T600 performance, most of the $\nu_\mu$ charged current sample will be partially contained, due to the reduced dimensions of the detector. In this article, we address the problem of how well we can determine the kinematics of events having partially contained tracks. The analysis of a large sample of atmospheric muons collected during the T600 test run demonstrate that, in case the recorded track is at least one meter long, the muon momentum can be reconstructed by an algorithm that measures the Multiple Coulomb Scattering along the particle's path. Moreover, we show that momentum resolution can be improved by a factor two using an algorithm based on the Kalman Filtering technique

A New Reduction Scheme for Gaussian Sum Filters

In many signal processing applications it is required to estimate the unobservable state of a dynamic system from its noisy measurements. For linear dynamic systems with Gaussian Mixture (GM) noise distributions, Gaussian Sum Filters (GSF) provide the MMSE state estimate by tracking the GM posterior. However, since the number of the clusters of the GM posterior grows exponentially over time, suitable reduction schemes need to be used to maintain the size of the bank in GSF. In this work we propose a low computational complexity reduction scheme which uses an initial state estimation to find the active noise clusters and removes all the others. Since the performance of our proposed method relies on the accuracy of the initial state estimation, we also propose five methods for finding this estimation. We provide simulation results showing that with suitable choice of the initial state estimation (based on the shape of the noise models), our proposed reduction scheme provides better state estimations both in terms of accuracy and precision when compared with other reduction methods