A spatio-temporal model for estimating the long-term effects of air pollution on respiratory hospital admissions in Greater London

It has long been known that air pollution is harmful to human health, as many epidemiological studies have been conducted into its effects. Collectively, these studies have investigated both the acute and chronic effects of pollution, with the latter typically based on individual level cohort designs that can be expensive to implement. As a result of the increasing availability of small-area statistics, ecological spatio-temporal study designs are also being used, with which a key statistical problem is allowing for residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation that remains after the covariate effects have been removed. We present a new model for estimating the effects of air pollution on human health, which allows for residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation, and a study into the long-term effects of air pollution on human health in Greater London, England. The individual and joint effects of different pollutants are explored, via the use of single pollutant models and multiple pollutant indices

A framework for exploration and cleaning of environmental data : Tehran air quality data experience

Management and cleaning of large environmental monitored data sets is a specific challenge. In this article, the authors present a novel framework for exploring and cleaning large datasets. As a case study, we applied the method on air quality data of Tehran, Iran from 1996 to 2013. ; The framework consists of data acquisition [here, data of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm (PM10)], development of databases, initial descriptive analyses, removing inconsistent data with plausibility range, and detection of missing pattern. Additionally, we developed a novel tool entitled spatiotemporal screening tool (SST), which considers both spatial and temporal nature of data in process of outlier detection. We also evaluated the effect of dust storm in outlier detection phase.; The raw mean concentration of PM10 before implementation of algorithms was 88.96 µg/m3 for 1996-2013 in Tehran. After implementing the algorithms, in total, 5.7% of data points were recognized as unacceptable outliers, from which 69% data points were detected by SST and 1% data points were detected via dust storm algorithm. In addition, 29% of unacceptable outlier values were not in the PR.  The mean concentration of PM10 after implementation of algorithms was 88.41 µg/m3. However, the standard deviation was significantly decreased from 90.86 µg/m3 to 61.64 µg/m3 after implementation of the algorithms. There was no distinguishable significant pattern according to hour, day, month, and year in missing data.; We developed a novel framework for cleaning of large environmental monitored data, which can identify hidden patterns. We also presented a complete picture of PM10 from 1996 to 2013 in Tehran. Finally, we propose implementation of our framework on large spatiotemporal databases, especially in developing countries

A rigorous statistical framework for spatio-temporal pollution prediction and estimation of its long-term impact on health

In the United Kingdom, air pollution is linked to around 40000 premature deaths each year, but estimating its health effects is challenging in a spatio-temporal study. The challenges include spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data; uncertainty in the estimated pollution surface; and complex residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation in the disease data. This article develops a two-stage model that addresses these issues. The first stage is a spatio-temporal fusion model linking modeled and measured pollution data, while the second stage links these predictions to the disease data. The methodology is motivated by a new five-year study investigating the effects of multiple pollutants on respiratory hospitalizations in England between 2007 and 2011, using pollution and disease data relating to local and unitary authorities on a monthly time scale

Time-causal and time-recursive spatio-temporal receptive fields

We present an improved model and theory for time-causal and time-recursive spatio-temporal receptive fields, based on a combination of Gaussian receptive fields over the spatial domain and first-order integrators or equivalently truncated exponential filters coupled in cascade over the temporal domain. Compared to previous spatio-temporal scale-space formulations in terms of non-enhancement of local extrema or scale invariance, these receptive fields are based on different scale-space axiomatics over time by ensuring non-creation of new local extrema or zero-crossings with increasing temporal scale. Specifically, extensions are presented about (i) parameterizing the intermediate temporal scale levels, (ii) analysing the resulting temporal dynamics, (iii) transferring the theory to a discrete implementation, (iv) computing scale-normalized spatio-temporal derivative expressions for spatio-temporal feature detection and (v) computational modelling of receptive fields in the lateral geniculate nucleus (LGN) and the primary visual cortex (V1) in biological vision. We show that by distributing the intermediate temporal scale levels according to a logarithmic distribution, we obtain much faster temporal response properties (shorter temporal delays) compared to a uniform distribution. Specifically, these kernels converge very rapidly to a limit kernel possessing true self-similar scale-invariant properties over temporal scales, thereby allowing for true scale invariance over variations in the temporal scale, although the underlying temporal scale-space representation is based on a discretized temporal scale parameter. We show how scale-normalized temporal derivatives can be defined for these time-causal scale-space kernels and how the composed theory can be used for computing basic types of scale-normalized spatio-temporal derivative expressions in a computationally efficient manner.Comment: 39 pages, 12 figures, 5 tables in Journal of Mathematical Imaging and Vision, published online Dec 201

Two-stage Bayesian model to evaluate the effect of air pollution on chronic respiratory diseases using drug prescriptions

Exposure to high levels of air pollutant concentration is known to be associated with respiratory problems which can translate into higher morbidity and mortality rates. The link between air pollution and population health has mainly been assessed considering air quality and hospitalisation or mortality data. However, this approach limits the analysis to individuals characterised by severe conditions. In this paper we evaluate the link between air pollution and respiratory diseases using general practice drug prescriptions for chronic respiratory diseases, which allow to draw conclusions based on the general population. We propose a two-stage statistical approach: in the first stage we specify a space-time model to estimate the monthly NO2 concentration integrating several data sources characterised by different spatio-temporal resolution; in the second stage we link the concentration to the β2-agonists prescribed monthly by general practices in England and we model the prescription rates through a small area approach

Spatial and temporal dynamics of malaria transmission in rural western Kenya

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Understanding the impact of reducing Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission requires estimates of the relationship between health outcomes and exposure to infectious mosquitoes. However, measures of exposure such as mosquito density and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) are generally aggregated over large areas and time periods, biasing the outcome-exposure relationship. There are few studies examining the extent and drivers of local variation in malaria exposure in endemic areas. METHODS: We describe the spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria transmission intensity measured by mosquito density and EIR in the KEMRI/CDC health and demographic surveillance system using entomological data collected during 2002-2004. Geostatistical zero inflated binomial and negative binomial models were applied to obtain location specific (house) estimates of sporozoite rates and mosquito densities respectively. Model-based predictions were multiplied to estimate the spatial pattern of annual entomological inoculation rate, a measure of the number of infective bites a person receive per unit of time. The models included environmental and climatic predictors extracted from satellite data, harmonic seasonal trends and parameters describing space-time correlation. RESULTS: Anopheles gambiae s.l was the main vector species accounting for 86% (n=2309) of the total collected mosquitoes with the remainder being Anopheles funestus. Sixty eight percent (757/1110) of the surveyed houses had no mosquitoes. Distance to water bodies, vegetation and day temperature were significantly associated with mosquito density. Overall annual point estimates of EIR were 6.7, 9.3 and 9.6 infectious bites per annum for 2002, 2003 and 2004 respectively. Monthly mosquito density and EIR varied over the study period peaking in May during the wet season. The predicted and observed densities and EIR showed a strong seasonal and spatial pattern over the study area. CONCLUSIONS: Spatio-temporal maps of malaria transmission intensity obtained in this study are not only useful in understanding variability in malaria epidemiology over small areas but also provides a high resolution exposure surface that can be used to analyse the impact of malaria exposure on mortalit

An integrated Bayesian model for estimating the long-term health effects of air pollution by fusing modelled and measured pollution data: a case study of nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Scotland

The long-term health effects of air pollution can be estimated using a spatio-temporal ecological study, where the disease data are counts of hospital admissions from populations in small areal units at yearly intervals. Spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over grid level concentrations from an atmospheric dispersion model. We propose a novel fusion model for estimating spatially aggregated pollution concentrations using both the modelled and monitored data, and relate these concentrations to respiratory disease in a new study in Scotland between 2007 and 2011

Integrating spatial and temporal approaches for explaining bicycle crashes in high-risk areas in Antwerp (Belgium)

The majority of bicycle crash studies aim at determining risk factors and estimating crash risks by employing statistics. Accordingly, the goal of this paper is to evaluate bicycle-motor vehicle crashes by using spatial and temporal approaches to statistical data. The spatial approach (a weighted kernel density estimation approach) preliminarily estimates crash risks at the macro level, thereby avoiding the expensive work of collecting traffic counts; meanwhile, the temporal approach (negative binomial regression approach) focuses on crash data that occurred on urban arterials and includes traffic exposure at the micro level. The crash risk and risk factors of arterial roads associated with bicycle facilities and road environments were assessed using a database built from field surveys and five government agencies. This study analysed 4120 geocoded bicycle crashes in the city of Antwerp (CA, Belgium). The data sets covered five years (2014 to 2018), including all bicycle-motorized vehicle (BMV) crashes from police reports. Urban arterials were highlighted as high-risk areas through the spatial approach. This was as expected given that, due to heavy traffic and limited road space, bicycle facilities on arterial roads face many design problems. Through spatial and temporal approaches, the environmental characteristics of bicycle crashes on arterial roads were analysed at the micro level. Finally, this paper provides an insight that can be used by both the geography and transport fields to improve cycling safety on urban arterial roads