Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais, Western Switzerland

The land use change scenarios created for the "Spatial Dynamic Modelling of Future Scenarios of Land Use Change in Vaud and Valais,  Western Switzerland" study (http://www.mdpi.com/2220-9964/6/4/115/htm)

Re-considering the status quo: Improving calibration of land use change models through validation of transition potential predictions

The increasing complexity of the dynamics captured in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change modelling has made model behaviour less transparent and calibration more extensive. For cellular automata models in particular, this is compounded by the fact that validation is typically performed indirectly, using final simulated change maps; rather than directly considering the probabilistic predictions of transition potential. This study demonstrates that evaluating transition potential predictions provides detail into model behaviour and performance that cannot be obtained from simulated map comparison alone. This is illustrated by modelling LULC transitions in Switzerland using both Logistic Regression and Random Forests. The results emphasize the need for LULC modellers to explicitly consider the performance of individual transition models independently to ensure robust predictions. Additionally, this study highlights the potential for predictor variable selection as a means to improve transition model generalizability and parsimony, which is beneficial for simulating future LULC change

Spatial near future modeling of land use and land cover changes in the temperate forests of Mexico

The loss of temperate forests of Mexico has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. This study analyzes land use/land cover change scenarios, using satellite images from the Landsat sensor. Images corresponded to the years 1990, 2005 and 2017. The scenarios were applied for the temperate forests with the aim of getting a better understanding of the patterns in land use/land cover changes. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) multispectral classification technique served to determine the land use/land cover types, which were validated through the Kappa Index. For the simulation of land use/land cover dynamics, a model developed in Dinamica-EGO was used, which uses stochastic models of Markov Chains, Cellular Automata and Weight of Evidences. For the study, a stationary, an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario were proposed. The projections based on the three scenarios were simulated for the year 2050. Five types of land use/land cover were identified and evaluated. They were primary forest, secondary forest, human settlements, areas without vegetation and water bodies. Results from the land use/land cover change analysis show a substantial gain for the secondary forest. The surface area of the primary forest was reduced from 55.8% in 1990 to 37.7% in 2017. Moreover, the three projected scenarios estimate further losses of the surface are for the primary forest, especially under the stationary and pessimistic scenarios. This highlights the importance and probably urgent implementation of conservation and protection measures to preserve these ecosystems and their services. Based on the accuracy obtained and on the models generated, results from these methodologies can serve as a decision tool to contribute to the sustainable management of the natural resources of a region

Dinámica, modelización y servicios ecosistémicos del paisaje. Metodología para el análisis de la franja costera del Mediterráneo occidental

El análisis y la dinámica de los paisajes a lo largo del tiempo y el espacio es esencial para la caracterización, ordenación y gestión de los paisajes actuales. Los paisajes, entendidos en su amplia escala espacial y temporal, son una expresión del trabajo conjunto de la naturaleza y el ser humano y por tanto un recurso territorial, un patrimonio y una señal de identidad, que necesita atención, protección y gestión. En el Convenio Europeo del Paisaje se institucionaliza el interés y el derecho al paisaje, y se insta a que los estados y regiones firmantes articulen políticas de paisaje en el marco de la ordenación territorial. Políticas que se operativizan mediante la identificación, análisis y caracterización de los paisajes presentes, así; como de sus dinámicas y los factores que contribuyen al cambio.Este conocimiento es la base sobre la que se fundamenta la toma de decisiones en la intervención en el territorio; en la manera de proteger, de ordenar o de gestionar los paisajes y en el modo de plantear el planeamiento. Para apoyar esa toma de decisiones se necesita disponer de un conocimiento profundo de los componentes, procesos, relaciones e interpretaciones que explican el carácter de cada paisaje. Es necesario identificar cuáles son los tipos de paisaje y las unidades de paisaje; conocer la dinámica histórica y además, disponer de un modelo geoespacial que nos permita generar los escenarios futuros según las diferentes decisiones previstas. Esta dinámica espacio-temporal, junto con los escenarios de futuro previstos influyen decisivamente sobre el capital natural y cultural de un territorio. En este sentido, la dinámica de los paisajes genera cambios en los servicios ecosistémicos y en el sentido de lugar, que es necesario evaluar. Las áreas periurbanas de la franja litoral del Mediterráneo occidental han experimentado una fuerte transformación, debido a la histórica e intensa ocupación humana del litoral. El objetivo de este trabajo es proponer una metodología que explique la transformación del paisaje en espacios litorales, tanto en su dinámica histórica como los posibles escenarios de futuro. Además, se pretende evaluar la influencia del cambio en el paisaje sobre los servicios ecosistémicos, tomando como áreas de estudio el municipio de Castelló de la Plana y el Área Metropolitana de Valencia. La finalidad es identificar y comprender la manera en que la sociedad se ha apropiado y ha ocupado la franja litoral, generando unas nuevas dinámicas territoriales y jerarquías espaciales. La investigación busca desarrollar la metodología y las técnicas de análisis geográfico, que permitan explicitar los elementos motores en la evolución del paisaje, su transformación y las consecuencias sobre los servicios ecosistémicos.Landscape is a human construction in continuous process of change. The methodology proposed to analyse the landscape dynamics is based on landscape diachronic study. Documentary availability (cartography, orthophotography, aerial photography, oblique, etc.), geographic information systems (GIS) and geospatial modelling are the criteria established to mark the different stages of analysis within the time series. For this, land cover information is used to identify landscape patterns for a later stage, incorporating the physiographic, lithological and biometric models to obtain landscape types for the entire time series. With the defined landscape types, landscape units are geographically mapped and delimited with the support of orthophotography, aerial photographs and historical cartographies, as well as historical documentation. This methodological procedure is performed for the two study areas, with two spatial scales (local and supralocal) and two different time scales (30 and 105 years). All this to obtain patterns of change in dynamics of cultural landscape over time and space, both quantitative and spatial variation and fragmentation that allow us to explain the current landscape situation. We obtain a dynamic of constant growth of urban landscape types, a sustained maintenance of the irrigation agricultural types and a marked decrease of the rain feed agricultural types. Finally, forest types have a tendency of slight growth and marsh types, wetland and rice fields disappear into the area A1, Castelló de la Plana, or reduce its importance in the area A2, metropolitan area of Valencia. With all this, we obtain a steady increase in the fragmentation of landscape units. Along with the methodology for obtaining the historical landscape dynamics, it is also proposed to analyse the possible future scenarios according to the decision-making process. To do this, a geospatial model is generated by using the Dinamica EGO software; along stochastic processes, Markov chain and cellular automata (CA). In this model, previously delimited and mapped landscape types and units are used as input data, and spatial variables that induce change as Weight of Evidence. Transition matrices are obtained, variables that induce the change in ranges and coefficients are categorized and geospatial model is calibrated. The various iterations of the calibration are validated for quality, in order to achieve finer calibration that will be used for simulation. Scenario generation is carried out with the geospatial model calibrated by adjusting variables according to the tendency to be analysed. In our research we generate two scenarios, of continuity and change, for area A1, Castelló de la Plana, and a scenario of continuity for area A2, metropolitan area of Valencia. The scenarios modelled trends maintain the landscape dynamics, except for irrigation agricultural types passing from peacekeeping to moderate reduction. As for fragmentation it continues to increase in all scenarios, but on scenario 2, area A1 Castelló de la Plana, its increase is significantly reduced. Finally, we propose a methodology to analyse the evolution of ecosystem services and their relationship with landscape dynamics and its different scenarios. We use two attributes of the soil on the landscape units: soil use capacity and soil water storage capacity. Through these attributes we are evaluating provisioning services, related to food production, and regulation and supporting services, related to water supply, food production and support of ecosystem processes. We obtain a generalized loss of both ecosystem services over the time series and scenarios. This may be limited by taking into consideration ecosystem services and incorporating them into decision-making when generating scenarios