A risk-aware fuzzy linguistic knowledge-based recommender system for hedge funds

One of the most difficult tasks for hedge funds investors is selecting a proper fund with just the right level level of risk. Often times, the issue is not only quantifying the hedge fund risk, but also the level the investors consider just right. To support this decision, we propose a novel recommender system, which is aware of the risks associated to different hedge funds, considering multiple factors, such as current yields, historic performance, diversification by industry, etc. Our system captures the preferences of the investors (e.g. industries, desired level of risk) applying fuzzy linguistic modeling and provides personalized recommendations for matching hedge funds. To demonstrate how our approach works, we have first profiled more than 4000 top hedge funds based on their composition and performance and second, created different simulated investment profiles and tested our recommendations with them.This paper has been developed with the FEDER financing under Project TIN2016-75850-R

A Fuzzy Linguistic RFM Model Applied to Campaign Management

In the literature there are some proposals for integrated schemes for campaign management based on segmentation from the results of the RFM model. RFM is a technique used to analyze customer behavior by means of three variables: Recency, Frequency and Monetary value. It is s very much in use in the business world due to its simplicity of use, implementation and interpretability of its results. However, RFM applications to campaign management present known limitations like the lack of precision because the scores of these variables are expressed by an ordinal scale. In this paper, we propose to link customer segmentation methods with campaign activities in a more effective way incorporating the 2–tuple model both to the RFM calculation process and to its subsequent exploitation by means of segmentation algorithms, specifically, k-means. This yields a greater interpretability of these results and also allows computing these values without loss of information. Therefore, marketers can effectively develop more effective marketing strategy

Algorithms to Detect and Rectify Multiplicative and Ordinal Inconsistencies of Fuzzy Preference Relations

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Consistency, multiplicative and ordinal, of fuzzy preference relations (FPRs) is investigated. The geometric consistency index (GCI) approximated thresholds are extended to measure the degree of consistency for an FPR. For inconsistent FPRs, two algorithms are devised (1) to find the multiplicative inconsistent elements, and (2) to detect the ordinal inconsistent elements. An integrated algorithm is proposed to improve simultaneously the ordinal and multiplicative consistencies. Some examples, comparative analysis, and simulation experiments are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods

An analysis of consensus approaches based on different concepts of coincidence

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version.Soft consensus is a relevant topic in group decision making problems. Soft consensus measures are utilized to reflect the different agreement degrees between the experts leading the consensus reaching process. This may determine the final decision and the time needed to reach it. The concept of coincidence has led to two main approaches to calculating the soft consensus measures, namely, concordance among expert preferences and concordance among individual solutions. In the first approach the coincidence is obtained by evaluating the similarity among the expert preferences, while in the second one the concordance is derived from the measurement of the similarity among the solutions proposed by these experts. This paper performs a comparative study of consensus approaches based on both coincidence approaches. We obtain significant differences between both approaches by comparing several distance functions for measuring expert preferences and a consensus measure over the set of alternatives for measuring the solutions provided by experts. To do so, we use the nonparametric Wilcoxon signed-ranks test. Finally, these outcomes are analyzed using Friedman mean ranks in order to obtain a quantitative classification of the considered measurements according to the convergence criterion considered in the consensus reaching process

A Personalized Feedback Mechanism based on Bounded Confidence to Support Consensus Reaching in Group Decision Making

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Different feedback mechanisms have been reported in consensus reaching models to provide advices for preference adjustment to assist decision makers to improve their consensus levels. However, most feedback mechanisms do not consider the willingness of decision makers to accept these advices. In the opinion dynamics discipline, the bounded confidence model justifies well that in the process of interaction a decision maker only considers the preferences that do not exceed a certain confidence level compared to his own preference. Inspired by this idea, this article proposes a new consensus reaching model with personalized feedback mechanism to help decision makers with bounded confidences in achieving consensus. Specifically, the personalized feedback mechanism produces more acceptable advices in the two cases where bounded confidences are known or unknown, and the unknown ones are estimated by a learning algorithm. Finally, numerical example and simulation analysis are presented to explore the effectiveness of the proposed model in reaching consensus

Consensus Reaching in Social Network Group Decision Making: Research Paradigms and Challenges

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.In social network group decision making (SNGDM), the consensus reaching process (CRP) is used to help decision makers with social relationships reach consensus. Many CRP studies have been conducted in SNGDM until now. This paper provides a review of CRPs in SNGDM, and as a result it classifies them into two paradigms: (i) the CRP paradigm based on trust relationships, and (ii) the CRP paradigm based on opinion evolution. Furthermore, identified research challenges are put forward to advance this area of research