Calculating and understanding the value of any type of match evidence when there are potential testing errors

It is well known that Bayes’ theorem (with likelihood ratios) can be used to calculate the impact of evidence, such as a ‘match’ of some feature of a person. Typically the feature of interest is the DNA profile, but the method applies in principle to any feature of a person or object, including not just DNA, fingerprints, or footprints, but also more basic features such as skin colour, height, hair colour or even name. Notwithstanding concerns about the extensiveness of databases of such features, a serious challenge to the use of Bayes in such legal contexts is that its standard formulaic representations are not readily understandable to non-statisticians. Attempts to get round this problem usually involve representations based around some variation of an event tree. While this approach works well in explaining the most trivial instance of Bayes’ theorem (involving a single hypothesis and a single piece of evidence) it does not scale up to realistic situations. In particular, even with a single piece of match evidence, if we wish to incorporate the possibility that there are potential errors (both false positives and false negatives) introduced at any stage in the investigative process, matters become very complex. As a result we have observed expert witnesses (in different areas of speciality) routinely ignore the possibility of errors when presenting their evidence. To counter this, we produce what we believe is the first full probabilistic solution of the simple case of generic match evidence incorporating both classes of testing errors. Unfortunately, the resultant event tree solution is too complex for intuitive comprehension. And, crucially, the event tree also fails to represent the causal information that underpins the argument. In contrast, we also present a simple-to-construct graphical Bayesian Network (BN) solution that automatically performs the calculations and may also be intuitively simpler to understand. Although there have been multiple previous applications of BNs for analysing forensic evidence—including very detailed models for the DNA matching problem, these models have not widely penetrated the expert witness community. Nor have they addressed the basic generic match problem incorporating the two types of testing error. Hence we believe our basic BN solution provides an important mechanism for convincing experts—and eventually the legal community—that it is possible to rigorously analyse and communicate the full impact of match evidence on a case, in the presence of possible error

Ontology-based data access with databases: a short course

Ontology-based data access (OBDA) is regarded as a key ingredient of the new generation of information systems. In the OBDA paradigm, an ontology defines a high-level global schema of (already existing) data sources and provides a vocabulary for user queries. An OBDA system rewrites such queries and ontologies into the vocabulary of the data sources and then delegates the actual query evaluation to a suitable query answering system such as a relational database management system or a datalog engine. In this chapter, we mainly focus on OBDA with the ontology language OWL 2QL, one of the three profiles of the W3C standard Web Ontology Language OWL 2, and relational databases, although other possible languages will also be discussed. We consider different types of conjunctive query rewriting and their succinctness, different architectures of OBDA systems, and give an overview of the OBDA system Ontop

Existential Second-Order Logic Over Graphs: A Complete Complexity-Theoretic Classification

Descriptive complexity theory aims at inferring a problem's computational complexity from the syntactic complexity of its description. A cornerstone of this theory is Fagin's Theorem, by which a graph property is expressible in existential second-order logic (ESO logic) if, and only if, it is in NP. A natural question, from the theory's point of view, is which syntactic fragments of ESO logic also still characterize NP. Research on this question has culminated in a dichotomy result by Gottlob, Kolatis, and Schwentick: for each possible quantifier prefix of an ESO formula, the resulting prefix class either contains an NP-complete problem or is contained in P. However, the exact complexity of the prefix classes inside P remained elusive. In the present paper, we clear up the picture by showing that for each prefix class of ESO logic, its reduction closure under first-order reductions is either FO, L, NL, or NP. For undirected, self-loop-free graphs two containment results are especially challenging to prove: containment in L for the prefix $\exists R_1 \cdots \exists R_n \forall x \exists y$ and containment in FO for the prefix $\exists M \forall x \exists y$ for monadic $M$. The complex argument by Gottlob, Kolatis, and Schwentick concerning polynomial time needs to be carefully reexamined and either combined with the logspace version of Courcelle's Theorem or directly improved to first-order computations. A different challenge is posed by formulas with the prefix $\exists M \forall x\forall y$: We show that they express special constraint satisfaction problems that lie in L.Comment: Technical report version of a STACS 2015 pape

SAT Modulo Monotonic Theories

We define the concept of a monotonic theory and show how to build efficient SMT (SAT Modulo Theory) solvers, including effective theory propagation and clause learning, for such theories. We present examples showing that monotonic theories arise from many common problems, e.g., graph properties such as reachability, shortest paths, connected components, minimum spanning tree, and max-flow/min-cut, and then demonstrate our framework by building SMT solvers for each of these theories. We apply these solvers to procedural content generation problems, demonstrating major speed-ups over state-of-the-art approaches based on SAT or Answer Set Programming, and easily solving several instances that were previously impractical to solve

Balanced Allocations and Double Hashing

Double hashing has recently found more common usage in schemes that use multiple hash functions. In double hashing, for an item $x$, one generates two hash values $f(x)$ and $g(x)$, and then uses combinations $(f(x) +k g(x)) \bmod n$ for $k=0,1,2,...$ to generate multiple hash values from the initial two. We first perform an empirical study showing that, surprisingly, the performance difference between double hashing and fully random hashing appears negligible in the standard balanced allocation paradigm, where each item is placed in the least loaded of $d$ choices, as well as several related variants. We then provide theoretical results that explain the behavior of double hashing in this context.Comment: Further updated, small improvements/typos fixe

IO vs OI in Higher-Order Recursion Schemes

We propose a study of the modes of derivation of higher-order recursion schemes, proving that value trees obtained from schemes using innermost-outermost derivations (IO) are the same as those obtained using unrestricted derivations. Given that higher-order recursion schemes can be used as a model of functional programs, innermost-outermost derivations policy represents a theoretical view point of call by value evaluation strategy.Comment: In Proceedings FICS 2012, arXiv:1202.317

An Algorithmic Proof of the Lovasz Local Lemma via Resampling Oracles

The Lovasz Local Lemma is a seminal result in probabilistic combinatorics. It gives a sufficient condition on a probability space and a collection of events for the existence of an outcome that simultaneously avoids all of those events. Finding such an outcome by an efficient algorithm has been an active research topic for decades. Breakthrough work of Moser and Tardos (2009) presented an efficient algorithm for a general setting primarily characterized by a product structure on the probability space. In this work we present an efficient algorithm for a much more general setting. Our main assumption is that there exist certain functions, called resampling oracles, that can be invoked to address the undesired occurrence of the events. We show that, in all scenarios to which the original Lovasz Local Lemma applies, there exist resampling oracles, although they are not necessarily efficient. Nevertheless, for essentially all known applications of the Lovasz Local Lemma and its generalizations, we have designed efficient resampling oracles. As applications of these techniques, we present new results for packings of Latin transversals, rainbow matchings and rainbow spanning trees.Comment: 47 page