Estimating the global temperature change by means of a fuzzy logic model obtained from IPCC published data

Ponencia presentada en: VI Congreso Internacional de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Tarragona del 8 al 11 de octubre de 2008.[EN]The long term scenarios (until year 2100) developed by the The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicate a wide range of future concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols. It can be inferred from these data that higher temperature increases are directly related with higher emission levels of greenhouse gases and the related increase into the atmosphere. It is also evident that lower temperature increases are related with smaller amounts of emissions and, therefore, with lower greenhouse gases concentrations. In this work simple linguistic rules are extracted from the IPCC reports in a subjective way. These rules describe the relations between the greenhouse gases emissions, their concentrations, the radiative forcing associated with concentrations, and the temperature changes.[ES]Los escenarios de largo plazo (hasta el año 2100) desarrollados por el Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático indican un rango muy amplio en los valores de las futuras concentraciones de gases de invernadero y aerosoles. Basándose en estos datos se puede inferir que los mayores incrementos de temperatura están directamente relacionados con una mayor cantidad de emisiones de gases de invernadero y el concomitante incremento de su concentración en la atmósfera. De igual manera, los menores incrementos de temperatura están relacionados con una menor cantidad de emisiones y, por ende, con menores concentraciones de gases de invernadero. En este trabajo se utilizan reglas lingüísticas simples, extraídas de manera subjetiva de los reportes de IPCC, que describen las relaciones entre las emisiones de gases de invernadero, sus concentraciones, los forzamientos radiativos asociados a estas concentraciones y los cambios de temperatura

Projected northward shifts in eastern red-backed salamanders due to changing climate

This work was supported by a research grant to BPH from the Research Enhancement Program at Louisiana State University. AE was funded by Organismo Autónomo Parques Nacionales of Spain through project 2745/2021.Many species' distributions are being impacted by the acceleration of climate change. Amphibians in particular serve numerous ecosystem functions and are useful indicators of environmental change. Understanding how their distributions have been impacted by climate change and will continue to be impacted is thus important to overall ecosystem health. Plethodon cinereus (Eastern Red-Backed Salamander) is a widespread species of lungless salamander (Plethodontidae) that ranges across northeastern North America. To better understand future potential lungless salamander range shifts, we quantify environmental favorability, the likelihood of membership in a set of sites where environmental conditions are favorable for a species, for P. cinereus in multiple time periods, and examine shifts in the species' distribution. First, utilizing a large data set of georeferenced records, we assessed which bioclimatic variables were associated with environmental favorability in P. cinereus. We then used species distribution modeling for two time periods (1961-1980 and 2001-2020) to determine whether there was a regional shift in environmental favorability in the past 60 years. Models were then used to project future distributions under eight climate change scenarios to quantify potential range shifts. Shifts were assessed using fuzzy logic, avoiding thresholds that oversimplify model predictions into artificial binary outputs. We found that P. cinereus presence is strongly associated with environmental stability. There has been a substantial northward shift in environmental favorability for P. cinereus between 1961-1980 and 2001-2020. This shift is predicted to continue by 2070, with larger shifts under higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios. As climate change accelerates, it is differentially impacting species but has especially strong impacts on dispersal-limited species. Our results show substantial northward shifts in climatic favorability in the last 60 years for P. cinereus, which are likely to be exacerbated by ongoing climate change. Since P. cinereus is dispersal-limited, these models may imply local extirpations along the southern modern range with limited northward dispersal. Continued monitoring of amphibians in the field will reveal microclimatic effects associated with climate change and the accuracy of the model predictions presented here.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Study of challenges in technology development and market penetration of hybrid electric vehicles in Canada

Growing concerns of the economic and environmental impact of petroleum combustion by on-road transportation have accelerated the development of alternative fuel vehicles; of these, the hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) is currently the most commercially successful technology. It integrates an electric drivetrain to the internal combustion engine for optimized engine operation giving significantly higher fuel efficiency and lower emissions. However, despite their well recognized benefits, Canadian consumers have shown reluctance in adapting HEVs so far. This thesis discusses the immediate need for Canada to adopt more efficient and eco-friendly transportation systems and analyzes the cost effectiveness and tailpipe emissions of HEVs that offer a suitable alternative. The factors inhibiting market acceptance of hybrids are have been reviewed and a set of comprehensive policy guidelines and measures have been proposed to provide financial incentives, enforce emission regulations and support technology development of hybrid vehicles. As part of the highlighted target, challenges in key areas of HEV technology have been discussed and one such challenge is addressed by proposing a more robust electric motor drive for vehicle traction

Impactos del Cambio Climático en la Generación de Energía Renovable y Evaluación de Escenarios de Generación Energética

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, leída el 26-04-2022This Thesis was titled Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Generation and Energy Generation Scenarios.Climate change is attributed, among other factors, to greenhouse gas emissions produced by the energy sector (including the transport). At the same time, climate change is expected to affect this sector by changing the availability of resources, altering its enabling conditions and transforming demand patterns. This thesis addresses climate change impacts on renewable generation and electricity demand by providing an overview of the most relevant transformations projected in literature and by developing methodologies and quantitative analysis to ascertain the specific infuence in three case studies.The first and second chapters are focus on estimating climate change impacts in wind and photovoltaic generation in specific plants. Both provide physical and economic projections of expected changes, along with conclusions for the development of energy policies. The last chapter delves into how climate change and the scenarios proposed to curb it, can affect the demand for electricity in a region, due to the expected changes in the generation infrastructure and changes on the demand side such as a high penetration of electric vehicles...Esta Tesis se tituló Impactos del Cambio Climático en la Generación de Energía Renovable y Escenarios de Generación de Energía. El cambio climático se atribuye, entre otras variables, a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero producidas por el sector energético (incluyendo el transporte). Al mismo tiempo, el cambio climático se espera que pueda afectar a este sector cambiando la disponibilidad de sus recursos, alterando sus condiciones habilitantes y transformando los patrones de la demanda. Esta Tesis aborda los impactos del cambio climático en la generación renovable y cambios en el comportamiento de la demanda de electricidad, proporcionando una introducción a las transformaciones más relevantes proyectadas por la literatura y desarrollando metodologías y análisis cuantitativos que determinan el impacto específico en tres casos de estudio. El primer y el segundo capítulo se centran en determinar los cambios esperados en la generación eólica y fotovoltaica en plantas específicas, con especial atención en el calentamiento global. Ambos proporcionan proyecciones físicas y económicas de los cambios esperados, junto con conclusiones para el desarrollo de políticas energéticas. El último capítulo profundiza en cómo el cambio climático y los escenarios propuestos para frenarlo, pueden afectar a la demanda de electricidad de una región, debido a los cambios esperados en las infraestructuras de generación y en cambios por el lado de la demanda como sería una elevada penetración de los vehículos eléctricos...Fac. de Ciencias Económicas y EmpresarialesTRUEunpu

Estimation of country contributions to the climate change : viewpoints of radiative forcing and uncertainty of emissions

Global warming that occurs due to emissions from a country or a country group was studied from two different points of view. Firstly, warming effect caused by Finnish emissions from 1900 to 2100 was assessed using a model that describes removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere by pulse response functions, and calculates the radiative forcing caused by an increase in atmospheric concentration. Secondly, Finland's share of global emissions was assessed for the time period during which detailed greenhouse gas inventories were available, i.e. from 1990 to 2003, taking into account uncertainties in emission estimates. The uncertainty estimate was made using literature, measurement data and expert judgement on input parameter uncertainties. Stochastic simulation was used to combine the uncertainties. In addition, uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes were compared at EU level. Greenhouse gases covered by the study were those included in the Kyoto Protocol, i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6). Sectors covered were energy, industry, transportation, agriculture and waste. LULUCF sectors (land-use, land use change and forestry) were covered more superficially. Finnish greenhouse gas emissions in 2003 were 86 Tg CO2 eq (without LULUCF). According to the results, 95% confidence interval of this figure lies between 82 and 92 Tg CO2 eq. This represents a share of 0.2-0.3% of global emissions. In the same year, Finland's share of global population was 0.1% and share of global GDP 0.4%. The most important contributors to uncertainty were N2O emissions from agricultural soils, N2O from nitric acid production and CH4 from landfills. Inclusion of LULUCF categories in the inventory increased relative uncertainty of net emissions notably (emissions in 2003 were 68 Tg CO2 eq with a 95% confidence interval of 58 to 78 Tg CO2 eq). According to the radiative forcing calculations, forcing caused by Finland will increase from 3 mWm-2 in 1990 to 6-11 mWm-2 by 2100, depending on emission reduction strategies applied, and technological development. In 1990 Finland's share of global radiative forcing was estimated at 0.18% and by 2100 it will decrease to 0.13%, due to increase in global emissions. The results revealed that Finland's share of radiative forcing was smaller than the share of emissions. This was due to Finland's relatively short emission history. It was concluded that uncertainty in EU emissions trading scheme for CO2 (2005-2007) contains rather small uncertainties (±3% based on uncertainties in inventories), but the extension of emissions trading scheme to cover other sectors or gases is likely to increase the uncertainties (up to 21% in Kyoto emissions trading scheme). Both radiative forcing and uncertainty assessment models developed in the thesis can be used in decision making, e.g. for comparing different emission reduction strategies and for planning of future climate commitments.reviewe

Structural Uncertainty and the Value of Statistical Life in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change

Using climate change as a prototype motivating example, this paper analyzes the implications of structural uncertainty for the economics of low-probability high-impact catastrophes. The paper shows that having an uncertain multiplicative parameter, which scales or amplifies exogenous shocks and is updated by Bayesian learning, induces a critical "tail fattening" of posterior-predictive distributions. These fattened tails can have strong implications for situations (like climate change) where a catastrophe is theoretically possible because prior knowledge cannot place sufficiently narrow bounds on overall damages. The essence of the problem is the difficulty of learning extreme-impact tail behavior from finite data alone. At least potentially, the influence on cost-benefit analysis of fat-tailed uncertainty about the scale of damages -- coupled with a high value of statistical life -- can outweigh the influence of discounting or anything else.

Analysis Of A Neuro-Fuzzy Approach Of Air Pollution: Building A Case Study

This work illustrates the necessity of an Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based approach of air quality in urban and industrial areas. Some related results of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Fuzzy Logic (FL) for environmental data are considered: ANNs are proposed to the problem of short-term predicting of air pollutant concentrations in urban/industrial areas, with a special focus in the south-eastern Romania. The problems of designing a database about air quality in an urban/industrial area are discussed. First results confirm ANNs as an improvement of classical models and show the utility of ANNs in a well built air monitoring center

Energy Use Efficiency

Energy is one of the most important factors of production. Its efficient use is crucial for ensuring production and environmental quality. Unlike normal goods with supply management, energy is demand managed. Efficient energy use—or energy efficiency—aims to reduce the amount of energy required to provide products and services. Energy use efficiency can be achieved in situations such as housing, offices, industrial production, transport and agriculture as well as in public lighting and services. The use of energy can be reduced by using technology that is energy saving. This Special Issue is a collection of research on energy use efficiency

Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Historical and Projected Methane Emissions from Rice Cultivation in Malaysia (1990-2030)

Global warming and climate change has reached the alarming levels due to increase of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere which includes carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Flooded rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation has been identified as one of the prominent global agricultural sources of anthropogenic CH4 emissions. Moreover, it has been estimated that global rice production is responsible for 11% of total anthropogenic CH4 emissions. The inventory of CH4 emission from rice cultivation in Malaysia was estimated from 1990 to 2014 and was also used as basis for computing the projected emissions up to 2030 by using Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Results showed that CH4 emissions is higher from granary area (continuously flooded) than non-granary area (rain-fed) due to different water management practices. Continuously flooded irrigation system which lead to anaerobic conditions emit almost (75%) higher CH4 than rain-fed irrigation system. Emissions forecasted will be continuously increase from 2015 to 2030 within the confidence limits. Emissions were forecasted to increase up to 88 Gg by 2030 due to increase of country population which will lead to expansion of cultivation area in order to fulfil country needs