EarlyR: A Robust Gene Expression Signature for Predicting Outcomes of Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer

Introduction Early stage estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer may be treated with chemotherapy in addition to hormone therapy. Currently available molecular signatures assess the risk of recurrence and the benefit of chemotherapy; however, these tests may have large intermediate risk groups, limiting their usefulness. Methods The EarlyR prognostic score was developed using integrative analysis of microarray data sets and formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded–based quantitative real-time PCR assay and validated in Affymetrix data sets and METABRIC cohort using Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Concordance index was used to measure the probability of prognostic score agreement with outcome. Results The EarlyR score and categorical risk strata (EarlyR-Low, EarlyR-Int, EarlyR-High) derived from expression of ESPL1, MKI67, SPAG5, PLK1 and PGR was prognostic of 8-year distant recurrence-free interval in Affymetrix (categorical P = 3.5 × 10−14; continuous P = 8.8 × 10−15) and METABRIC (categorical P < 2.2 × 10−16; continuous P < 10−16) data sets of ER+ breast cancer. Similar results were observed for the breast cancer–free interval end point. At most 13% of patients were intermediate risk and at least 66% patients were low risk in both ER+ cohorts. The EarlyR score was significantly prognostic (distant recurrence-free interval; P < .001) in both lymph node–negative and lymph node–positive patients and was independent from clinical factors. EarlyR and surrogates of current molecular signatures were comparable in prognostic significance by concordance index. Conclusion The 5-gene EarlyR score is a robust prognostic assay that identified significantly fewer patients as intermediate risk and more as low risk than currently available assays. Further validation of the assay in clinical trial–derived cohorts is ongoing

Homogeneous Datasets of Triple Negative Breast Cancers Enable the Identification of Novel Prognostic and Predictive Signatures

Background: Current prognostic gene signatures for breast cancer mainly reflect proliferation status and have limited value in triple-negative (TNBC) cancers. The identification of prognostic signatures from TNBC cohorts was limited in the past due to small sample sizes. Methodology/Principal Findings: We assembled all currently publically available TNBC gene expression datasets generated on Affymetrix gene chips. Inter-laboratory variation was minimized by filtering methods for both samples and genes. Supervised analysis was performed to identify prognostic signatures from 394 cases which were subsequently tested on an independent validation cohort (n = 261 cases). Conclusions/Significance: Using two distinct false discovery rate thresholds, 25% and <3.5%, a larger (n = 264 probesets) and a smaller (n = 26 probesets) prognostic gene sets were identified and used as prognostic predictors. Most of these genes were positively associated with poor prognosis and correlated to metagenes for inflammation and angiogenesis. No correlation to other previously published prognostic signatures (recurrence score, genomic grade index, 70-gene signature, wound response signature, 7-gene immune response module, stroma derived prognostic predictor, and a medullary like signature) was observed. In multivariate analyses in the validation cohort the two signatures showed hazard ratios of 4.03 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.71–9.48; P = 0.001) and 4.08 (95% CI 1.79–9.28; P = 0.001), respectively. The 10-year event-free survival was 70% for the good risk and 20% for the high risk group. The 26-gene signatures had modest predictive value (AUC = 0.588) to predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, however, the combination of a B-cell metagene with the prognostic signatures increased its response predictive value. We identified a 264-gene prognostic signature for TNBC which is unrelated to previously known prognostic signatures

Ribosomal Proteins RPS11 and RPS20, Two Stress-Response Markers of Glioblastoma Stem Cells, Are Novel Predictors of Poor Prognosis in Glioblastoma Patients.

Glioblastoma stem cells (GSC) co-exhibiting a tumor-initiating capacity and a radio-chemoresistant phenotype, are a compelling cell model for explaining tumor recurrence. We have previously characterized patient-derived, treatment-resistant GSC clones (TRGC) that survived radiochemotherapy. Compared to glucose-dependent, treatment-sensitive GSC clones (TSGC), TRGC exhibited reduced glucose dependence that favor the fatty acid oxidation pathway as their energy source. Using comparative genome-wide transcriptome analysis, a series of defense signatures associated with TRGC survival were identified and verified by siRNA-based gene knockdown experiments that led to loss of cell integrity. In this study, we investigate the prognostic value of defense signatures in glioblastoma (GBM) patients using gene expression analysis with Probeset Analyzer (131 GBM) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data, and protein expression with a tissue microarray (50 GBM), yielding the first TRGC-derived prognostic biomarkers for GBM patients. Ribosomal protein S11 (RPS11), RPS20, individually and together, consistently predicted poor survival of newly diagnosed primary GBM tumors when overexpressed at the RNA or protein level [RPS11: Hazard Ratio (HR) = 11.5, p&lt;0.001; RPS20: HR = 4.5, p = 0.03; RPS11+RPS20: HR = 17.99, p = 0.001]. The prognostic significance of RPS11 and RPS20 was further supported by whole tissue section RPS11 immunostaining (27 GBM; HR = 4.05, p = 0.01) and TCGA gene expression data (578 primary GBM; RPS11: HR = 1.19, p = 0.06; RPS20: HR = 1.25, p = 0.02; RPS11+RPS20: HR = 1.43, p = 0.01). Moreover, tumors that exhibited unmethylated O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) or wild-type isocitrate dehydrogenase 1 (IDH1) were associated with higher RPS11 expression levels [corr (IDH1, RPS11) = 0.64, p = 0.03); [corr (MGMT, RPS11) = 0.52, p = 0.04]. These data indicate that increased expression of RPS11 and RPS20 predicts shorter patient survival. The study also suggests that TRGC are clinically relevant cells that represent resistant tumorigenic clones from patient tumors and that their properties, at least in part, are reflected in poor-prognosis GBM. The screening of TRGC signatures may represent a novel alternative strategy for identifying new prognostic biomarkers

A Simple but Highly Effective Approach to Evaluate the Prognostic Performance of Gene Expression Signatures

BACKGROUND: Highly parallel analysis of gene expression has recently been used to identify gene sets or 'signatures' to improve patient diagnosis and risk stratification. Once a signature is generated, traditional statistical testing is used to evaluate its prognostic performance. However, due to the dimensionality of microarrays, this can lead to false interpretation of these signatures. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A method was developed to test batches of a user-specified number of randomly chosen signatures in patient microarray datasets. The percentage of random generated signatures yielding prognostic value was assessed using ROC analysis by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) in six public available cancer patient microarray datasets. We found that a signature consisting of randomly selected genes has an average 10% chance of reaching significance when assessed in a single dataset, but can range from 1% to ∼40% depending on the dataset in question. Increasing the number of validation datasets markedly reduces this number. CONCLUSIONS: We have shown that the use of an arbitrary cut-off value for evaluation of signature significance is not suitable for this type of research, but should be defined for each dataset separately. Our method can be used to establish and evaluate signature performance of any derived gene signature in a dataset by comparing its performance to thousands of randomly generated signatures. It will be of most interest for cases where few data are available and testing in multiple datasets is limited

A multi-gene signature predicts outcome in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

© 2014 Haider et al.; licensee BioMed Central. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Improved usage of the repertoires of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) profiles is crucially needed to guide the development of predictive and prognostic tools that could inform the selection of treatment options

Intra-tumour signalling entropy determines clinical outcome in breast and lung cancer.

The cancer stem cell hypothesis, that a small population of tumour cells are responsible for tumorigenesis and cancer progression, is becoming widely accepted and recent evidence has suggested a prognostic and predictive role for such cells. Intra-tumour heterogeneity, the diversity of the cancer cell population within the tumour of an individual patient, is related to cancer stem cells and is also considered a potential prognostic indicator in oncology. The measurement of cancer stem cell abundance and intra-tumour heterogeneity in a clinically relevant manner however, currently presents a challenge. Here we propose signalling entropy, a measure of signalling pathway promiscuity derived from a sample's genome-wide gene expression profile, as an estimate of the stemness of a tumour sample. By considering over 500 mixtures of diverse cellular expression profiles, we reveal that signalling entropy also associates with intra-tumour heterogeneity. By analysing 3668 breast cancer and 1692 lung adenocarcinoma samples, we further demonstrate that signalling entropy correlates negatively with survival, outperforming leading clinical gene expression based prognostic tools. Signalling entropy is found to be a general prognostic measure, valid in different breast cancer clinical subgroups, as well as within stage I lung adenocarcinoma. We find that its prognostic power is driven by genes involved in cancer stem cells and treatment resistance. In summary, by approximating both stemness and intra-tumour heterogeneity, signalling entropy provides a powerful prognostic measure across different epithelial cancers

Development and Validation of a 28-gene Hypoxia-related Prognostic Signature for Localized Prostate Cancer.

BACKGROUND: Hypoxia is associated with a poor prognosis in prostate cancer. This work aimed to derive and validate a hypoxia-related mRNA signature for localized prostate cancer. METHOD: Hypoxia genes were identified in vitro via RNA-sequencing and combined with in vivo gene co-expression analysis to generate a signature. The signature was independently validated in eleven prostate cancer cohorts and a bladder cancer phase III randomized trial of radiotherapy alone or with carbogen and nicotinamide (CON). RESULTS: A 28-gene signature was derived. Patients with high signature scores had poorer biochemical recurrence free survivals in six of eight independent cohorts of prostatectomy-treated patients (Log rank test P \u3c .05), with borderline significances achieved in the other two (P \u3c .1). The signature also predicted biochemical recurrence in patients receiving post-prostatectomy radiotherapy (n = 130, P = .007) or definitive radiotherapy alone (n = 248, P = .035). Lastly, the signature predicted metastasis events in a pooled cohort (n = 631, P = .002). Prognostic significance remained after adjusting for clinic-pathological factors and commercially available prognostic signatures. The signature predicted benefit from hypoxia-modifying therapy in bladder cancer patients (intervention-by-signature interaction test P = .0026), where carbogen and nicotinamide was associated with improved survival only in hypoxic tumours. CONCLUSION: A 28-gene hypoxia signature has strong and independent prognostic value for prostate cancer patients

Methyl-CpG-binding domain sequencing reveals a prognostic methylation signature in neuroblastoma

Accurate assessment of neuroblastoma outcome prediction remains challenging. Therefore, this study aims at establishing novel prognostic tumor DNA methylation biomarkers. In total, 396 low- and high-risk primary tumors were analyzed, of which 87 were profiled using methyl-CpG-binding domain (MBD) sequencing for differential methylation analysis between prognostic patient groups. Subsequently, methylation-specific PCR (MSP) assays were developed for 78 top-ranking differentially methylated regions and tested on two independent cohorts of 132 and 177 samples, respectively. Further, a new statistical framework was used to identify a robust set of MSP assays of which the methylation score (i.e. the percentage of methylated assays) allows accurate outcome prediction. Survival analyses were performed on the individual target level, as well as on the combined multimarker signature. As a result of the differential DNA methylation assessment by MBD sequencing, 58 of the 78 MSP assays were designed in regions previously unexplored in neuroblastoma, and 36 are located in non-promoter or non-coding regions. In total, 5 individual MSP assays (located in CCDC177, NXPH1, lnc-MRPL3-2, lnc-TREX1-1 and one on a region from chromosome 8 with no further annotation) predict event-free survival and 4 additional assays (located in SPRED3, TNFAIP2, NPM2 and CYYR1) also predict overall survival. Furthermore, a robust 58-marker methylation signature predicting overall and event-free survival was established. In conclusion, this study encompasses the largest DNA methylation biomarker study in neuroblastoma so far. We identified and independently validated several novel prognostic biomarkers, as well as a prognostic 58-marker methylation signature