Development of Neurofuzzy Architectures for Electricity Price Forecasting

In 20th century, many countries have liberalized their electricity market. This power markets liberalization has directed generation companies as well as wholesale buyers to undertake a greater intense risk exposure compared to the old centralized framework. In this framework, electricity price prediction has become crucial for any market player in their decision‐making process as well as strategic planning. In this study, a prototype asymmetric‐based neuro‐fuzzy network (AGFINN) architecture has been implemented for short‐term electricity prices forecasting for ISO New England market. AGFINN framework has been designed through two different defuzzification schemes. Fuzzy clustering has been explored as an initial step for defining the fuzzy rules while an asymmetric Gaussian membership function has been utilized in the fuzzification part of the model. Results related to the minimum and maximum electricity prices for ISO New England, emphasize the superiority of the proposed model over well‐established learning‐based models

Advanced Methods of Power Load Forecasting

This reprint introduces advanced prediction models focused on power load forecasting. Models based on artificial intelligence and more traditional approaches are shown, demonstrating the real possibilities of use to improve prediction in this field. Models of LSTM neural networks, LSTM networks with a SESDA architecture, in even LSTM-CNN are used. On the other hand, multiple seasonal Holt-Winters models with discrete seasonality and the application of the Prophet method to demand forecasting are presented. These models are applied in different circumstances and show highly positive results. This reprint is intended for both researchers related to energy management and those related to forecasting, especially power load

Machine Learning Tools in the Predictive Analysis of ERCOT Load Demand Data

The electric load industry has seen a significant transformation over the last few decades, culminating in the establishment and implementation of electricity markets. This transition separates electric generation services into a distinct, more competitive sector of the industry, allowing for the introduction of greater unpredictability into the system. Forecasting power system load has developed into a core research area in power and energy demand engineering in order to maintain a constant balance between electricity supply and demand. The purpose of this thesis dissertation is to reduce power system uncertainty by improving forecasting accuracy through the use of sophisticated machine learning techniques. Additionally, this research provides sophisticated machine learning-based forecasting methodologies for the three forecasting professions from a variety of perspectives, incorporating several advanced deep learning features such as Naïve/default, Hyperparameter Tuning, and Custom Early Stopping. We begin by creating long-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models for ERCOT demand data, and then compare them to some of the most well-known supervised machine learning models, such as ARIMA and SARIMA, to identify the best set of models for long- and short-term load forecasting. We will also use multiple comparison approaches, such as the radar chart and the Pygal radar chart, to perform a thorough evaluation of each of the deep learning models before settling on the best model

Energy consumption forecasting: a proposed framework

With the development of underdeveloped countries and the digitization of societies, energy consumption is expected to continue to show high growth in the coming decades. While there is still a strong focus on fossil fuels for energy generation, the implementation of energy policies is crucial to gradually shift to renewable sources and the consequent reduction in CO2 emissions. Buildings are currently the sector that consumes the most energy. To contribute for a better energy consumption efficiency, it was proposed a framework, to be applied to buildings or households, to allow users to know their energy consumption and the possibility to forecast it. Different data analysis techniques for time series were used to provide information to the user about their energy consumption as well as to validate important data characteristics, namely stationarity and the existence of seasonality, which can have an impact in the forecasting models. For the definition of the forecasting models, state of the art was done to identify used models for energy consumption forecasting, and three models were tested for both types of data, univariate and multivariate. For the univariate data, the tested models were SARIMA, Holt-Winters and LSTM as for the multivariate data, SARIMA with exogenous variables, Support Vector Regression and LSTM. After the first execution of each model, hyperparameter tuning was done to conclude on the improvement of the results and the robustness of the models for later application to the framework.Com o desenvolvimento de países subdesenvolvidos e a digitalização das sociedades, é esperado que o consumo de energia continue a apresentar um crescimento elevado nas próximas décadas. Existindo ainda um grande foco em fontes fósseis para a geração de energia, a implementação de políticas energéticas são cruciais para a mudança gradual para energias renováveis e consequente redução de emissões de CO2. Edifícios são atualmente o sector que mais energia consomem. De forma a contribuir para uma melhor eficiência no consumo de energia foi proposta uma framework, a aplicar em edifícios ou apartamentos, para possibilitar aos utilizadores ter um conhecimento do seu consumo de energia bem como a previsão desse mesmo consumo. Diferentes técnicas de análise de dados para séries temporais foram utilizadas para proporcionar informação ao utilizador sobre o seu consumo de energia bem como a validação de caraterísticas importantes dos dados, nomeadamente a verificação da estacionariedade e a existência da sazonalidade, que terão impacto no modelo de previsão. Para a definição dos modelos preditivos, foi feita uma revisão de literatura sobre modelos utilizados atualmente para previsão do consumo de energia e testados três modelos para os dois tipos de dados, univariados e multivariados. Para os dados univariados os modelos testados foram SARIMA, Holt-Winters e LSTM e para os dados multivariados SARIMA com variáveis exógenas, Support Vector Regression e LSTM. Após a primeira execução de cada modelo, foi feita uma otimização dos modelos para concluir na melhoria dos resultados previstos e na robustez dos modelos para posterior aplicação na framework

Time series forecasting for a call center in a Warsaw holding company

Internship Report presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced AnalyticsIn recent years, artificial intelligence and cognitive technologies are actively being adopted in industries that use conversational marketing. Workforce managers face the constant challenge of balancing the priorities of service levels and related service costs. This problem is especially common when inaccurate forecasts lead to inefficient scheduling decisions and in turn result in dramatic impact on the customer engagement and experience and thus call center’s profitability. The main trigger of this project development was the Company X’s struggle to estimate the number of inbound phone calls expected in the upcoming 40 days. Accurate phone call volume forecast could significantly improve consultants’ time management, as well as, service quality. Keeping this goal in mind, the main focus of this internship is to conduct a set of experiments with various types of predictive models and identify the best performing for the analyzed use case. After a thorough review of literature covering work related to time series analysis, the empirical part of the internship follows which describes the process of developing both, univariate and multivariate statistical models. The methods used in the report also include two types of recurrent neural networks which are commonly used for time series prediction. The exogenous variables used in multivariate models are derived from the Media Planning department of the company which stores information about the ads being published in the newspapers. The outcome of the research shows that statistical models outperformed the neural networks in this specific application. This report covers the overview of statistical and neural network models used. After that, a comparative study of all tested models is conducted and one best performing model is selected. Evidently, the experiments showed that SARIMAX model yields best predictions for the analyzed use-case and thus it is recommended for the company to be used for a better staff management driving a more pleasant customer experience of the call center

The use of computational intelligence techniques for mid-term electricity price forecasting

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Information Management, specialization in Information Systems and Technologies ManagementWe currently live in a world ruled by large amounts of data. Organizations’ success is highly determined by the way they foresee and assess changes occurring in the future. Predictive data analytics is the art of building and using models that create forecasts based on patterns extracted from historical data. So, it is a process of making projections about a specific event which the outcome is still unknown in the present. One of the main applications is price prediction (Kelleher, Namee, & D’Arcy, 2015). Price prediction can be applied in innumerous types of business, including the energy sector. Additionally, Big Data has created opportunities for development of new energy services and bears a promise of better energy management and conservation (Grolinger, L’Heureux, Capretz, & Seewald, 2016). Whenever prediction deals with time-series data, it can be designated as forecasting. The electricity spot prices (ESP) represent the result of the market bidding prices outcome, in the electric wholesale market. Predicting these prices is an important and impactful task for market participants, like producers, consumers and retailers, since the principal objective for such players is to achieve the lowest cost in comparison with competitors. ESP play a huge role in energy market’s decision making. It is important both for developing proper bidding strategies as well as for making conscient and sustainable investment decisions (Keynia & Heydari, 2019). Additionally, it impacts the decision of the technologies to use, for example, choosing between renewable energy generators or classic gas turbines. Furthermore, the topic of electricity prices forecasting is extremely relevant for both developed and developing countries. Developed countries search for their economic prospect’s improvement. Electric energy efficiency is a crucial metric for that improvement. Electric energy efficiency can decrease the electricity prices thanks to the reduction of consumption, thus decreasing the need of having new expensive power generation and diminishing the pressure on energy resources. Therefore, ESP behavior is an important factor in their economy. Regarding developing economies, which have faced problems to take the populations out of poverty, the electricity sector restructuring has been fundamental for helping increase the levels of economic development (Ebrahimian, Barmayoon, Mohammadi, & Ghadimi, 2018)

Multi-model prediction for demand forecast in water distribution networks

This paper presents a multi-model predictor called Qualitative Multi-Model Predictor Plus (QMMP+) for demand forecast in water distribution networks. QMMP+ is based on the decomposition of the quantitative and qualitative information of the time-series. The quantitative component (i.e., the daily consumption prediction) is forecasted and the pattern mode estimated using a Nearest Neighbor (NN) classifier and a Calendar. The patterns are updated via a simple Moving Average scheme. The NN classifier and the Calendar are executed simultaneously every period and the most suited model for prediction is selected using a probabilistic approach. The proposed solution for water demand forecast is compared against Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Networks (RBF-ANN), the statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW) approaches, providing the best results when applied to real demand of the Barcelona Water Distribution Network. QMMP+ has demonstrated that the special modelling treatment of water consumption patterns improves the forecasting accuracyPeer ReviewedPostprint (published version