21,601 research outputs found
Particle filtering in high-dimensional chaotic systems
We present an efficient particle filtering algorithm for multiscale systems,
that is adapted for simple atmospheric dynamics models which are inherently
chaotic. Particle filters represent the posterior conditional distribution of
the state variables by a collection of particles, which evolves and adapts
recursively as new information becomes available. The difference between the
estimated state and the true state of the system constitutes the error in
specifying or forecasting the state, which is amplified in chaotic systems that
have a number of positive Lyapunov exponents. The purpose of the present paper
is to show that the homogenization method developed in Imkeller et al. (2011),
which is applicable to high dimensional multi-scale filtering problems, along
with important sampling and control methods can be used as a basic and flexible
tool for the construction of the proposal density inherent in particle
filtering. Finally, we apply the general homogenized particle filtering
algorithm developed here to the Lorenz'96 atmospheric model that mimics
mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics with microscopic convective processes.Comment: 28 pages, 12 figure
A random map implementation of implicit filters
Implicit particle filters for data assimilation generate high-probability
samples by representing each particle location as a separate function of a
common reference variable. This representation requires that a certain
underdetermined equation be solved for each particle and at each time an
observation becomes available. We present a new implementation of implicit
filters in which we find the solution of the equation via a random map. As
examples, we assimilate data for a stochastically driven Lorenz system with
sparse observations and for a stochastic Kuramoto-Sivashinski equation with
observations that are sparse in both space and time
Data Assimilation by Conditioning on Future Observations
Conventional recursive filtering approaches, designed for quantifying the
state of an evolving uncertain dynamical system with intermittent observations,
use a sequence of (i) an uncertainty propagation step followed by (ii) a step
where the associated data is assimilated using Bayes' rule. In this paper we
switch the order of the steps to: (i) one step ahead data assimilation followed
by (ii) uncertainty propagation. This route leads to a class of filtering
algorithms named \emph{smoothing filters}. For a system driven by random noise,
our proposed methods require the probability distribution of the driving noise
after the assimilation to be biased by a nonzero mean. The system noise,
conditioned on future observations, in turn pushes forward the filtering
solution in time closer to the true state and indeed helps to find a more
accurate approximate solution for the state estimation problem
Active Classification for POMDPs: a Kalman-like State Estimator
The problem of state tracking with active observation control is considered
for a system modeled by a discrete-time, finite-state Markov chain observed
through conditionally Gaussian measurement vectors. The measurement model
statistics are shaped by the underlying state and an exogenous control input,
which influence the observations' quality. Exploiting an innovations approach,
an approximate minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) filter is derived to estimate
the Markov chain system state. To optimize the control strategy, the associated
mean-squared error is used as an optimization criterion in a partially
observable Markov decision process formulation. A stochastic dynamic
programming algorithm is proposed to solve for the optimal solution. To enhance
the quality of system state estimates, approximate MMSE smoothing estimators
are also derived. Finally, the performance of the proposed framework is
illustrated on the problem of physical activity detection in wireless body
sensing networks. The power of the proposed framework lies within its ability
to accommodate a broad spectrum of active classification applications including
sensor management for object classification and tracking, estimation of sparse
signals and radar scheduling.Comment: 38 pages, 6 figure
Joint state-parameter estimation of a nonlinear stochastic energy balance model from sparse noisy data
While nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations arise naturally in
spatiotemporal modeling, inference for such systems often faces two major
challenges: sparse noisy data and ill-posedness of the inverse problem of
parameter estimation. To overcome the challenges, we introduce a strongly
regularized posterior by normalizing the likelihood and by imposing physical
constraints through priors of the parameters and states. We investigate joint
parameter-state estimation by the regularized posterior in a physically
motivated nonlinear stochastic energy balance model (SEBM) for paleoclimate
reconstruction. The high-dimensional posterior is sampled by a particle Gibbs
sampler that combines MCMC with an optimal particle filter exploiting the
structure of the SEBM. In tests using either Gaussian or uniform priors based
on the physical range of parameters, the regularized posteriors overcome the
ill-posedness and lead to samples within physical ranges, quantifying the
uncertainty in estimation. Due to the ill-posedness and the regularization, the
posterior of parameters presents a relatively large uncertainty, and
consequently, the maximum of the posterior, which is the minimizer in a
variational approach, can have a large variation. In contrast, the posterior of
states generally concentrates near the truth, substantially filtering out
observation noise and reducing uncertainty in the unconstrained SEBM
Sparse Volterra and Polynomial Regression Models: Recoverability and Estimation
Volterra and polynomial regression models play a major role in nonlinear
system identification and inference tasks. Exciting applications ranging from
neuroscience to genome-wide association analysis build on these models with the
additional requirement of parsimony. This requirement has high interpretative
value, but unfortunately cannot be met by least-squares based or kernel
regression methods. To this end, compressed sampling (CS) approaches, already
successful in linear regression settings, can offer a viable alternative. The
viability of CS for sparse Volterra and polynomial models is the core theme of
this work. A common sparse regression task is initially posed for the two
models. Building on (weighted) Lasso-based schemes, an adaptive RLS-type
algorithm is developed for sparse polynomial regressions. The identifiability
of polynomial models is critically challenged by dimensionality. However,
following the CS principle, when these models are sparse, they could be
recovered by far fewer measurements. To quantify the sufficient number of
measurements for a given level of sparsity, restricted isometry properties
(RIP) are investigated in commonly met polynomial regression settings,
generalizing known results for their linear counterparts. The merits of the
novel (weighted) adaptive CS algorithms to sparse polynomial modeling are
verified through synthetic as well as real data tests for genotype-phenotype
analysis.Comment: 20 pages, to appear in IEEE Trans. on Signal Processin
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