While nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations arise naturally in
spatiotemporal modeling, inference for such systems often faces two major
challenges: sparse noisy data and ill-posedness of the inverse problem of
parameter estimation. To overcome the challenges, we introduce a strongly
regularized posterior by normalizing the likelihood and by imposing physical
constraints through priors of the parameters and states. We investigate joint
parameter-state estimation by the regularized posterior in a physically
motivated nonlinear stochastic energy balance model (SEBM) for paleoclimate
reconstruction. The high-dimensional posterior is sampled by a particle Gibbs
sampler that combines MCMC with an optimal particle filter exploiting the
structure of the SEBM. In tests using either Gaussian or uniform priors based
on the physical range of parameters, the regularized posteriors overcome the
ill-posedness and lead to samples within physical ranges, quantifying the
uncertainty in estimation. Due to the ill-posedness and the regularization, the
posterior of parameters presents a relatively large uncertainty, and
consequently, the maximum of the posterior, which is the minimizer in a
variational approach, can have a large variation. In contrast, the posterior of
states generally concentrates near the truth, substantially filtering out
observation noise and reducing uncertainty in the unconstrained SEBM
