Sensitivity and uncertainty propagation in coupled models for assessing smallholder farmer food security in the Olifants River Basins, South Africa

Using family balance (i.e., combined net farm and non-farm incomes less family expenses), an output from an integrated model, which couples water resource, agronomic and socio-economic models, its sensitivity and uncertainty are evaluated for five smallholder farming groups (AeE) in the Olifants Basin. The crop management practiced included conventional rainfed, untied ridges, planting basins and supplemental irrigation. Scatter plots inferred the most sensitive variables affecting family balance, while the Monte Carlo method, using random sampling, was used to propagate the uncertainty in the model inputs to produce family balance probability distributions. A non-linear correlation between in-season rainfall and family balance arises from several factors that affect crop yield, indicating the complexity of farm family finance resource-base in relation to climate, crop management practices and environ- mental resources of soil and water. Stronger relationships between family balance and evapotranspira- tion than with in-season rainfall were obtained. Sensitivity analysis results suggest more targeted investment effort in data monitoring of yield, in-season rainfall, supplemental irrigation and maize price to reduce family balance uncertainty that varied from 42% to 54% at 90% confidence level. While sup- plemental irrigation offers the most marginal increase in yields, its wide adoption is limited by avail- ability of water and infrastructure cost

Private irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa: regional Seminar on Private Sector Participation and Irrigation Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa, Accra, Ghana, 22-26 October 2001

Irrigation management / Privatization / Irrigated farming / Financing / Irrigation systems / Gender / Women / Government managed irrigation systems / Farmer managed irrigation systems / Rice / Horticulture / Technology transfer / Pumps / Drip irrigation / Filtration / Capacity building / Urban agriculture / Poverty / Water users associations / Agricultural credit

African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation

This open access book discusses current thinking and presents the main issues and challenges associated with climate change in Africa. It introduces evidences from studies and projects which show how climate change adaptation is being - and may continue to be successfully implemented in African countries. Thanks to its scope and wide range of themes surrounding climate change, the ambition is that this book will be a lead publication on the topic, which may be regularly updated and hence capture further works. Climate change is a major global challenge. However, some geographical regions are more severly affected than others. One of these regions is the African continent. Due to a combination of unfavourable socio-economic and meteorological conditions, African countries are particularly vulnerable to climate change and its impacts. The recently released IPCC special report "Global Warming of 1.5º C" outlines the fact that keeping global warming by the level of 1.5º C is possible, but also suggested that an increase by 2º C could lead to crises with crops (agriculture fed by rain could drop by 50% in some African countries by 2020) and livestock production, could damage water supplies and pose an additonal threat to coastal areas. The 5th Assessment Report produced by IPCC predicts that wheat may disappear from Africa by 2080, and that maize— a staple—will fall significantly in southern Africa. Also, arid and semi-arid lands are likely to increase by up to 8%, with severe ramifications for livelihoods, poverty eradication and meeting the SDGs. Pursuing appropriate adaptation strategies is thus vital, in order to address the current and future challenges posed by a changing climate. It is against this background that the "African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation" is being published. It contains papers prepared by scholars, representatives from social movements, practitioners and members of governmental agencies, undertaking research and/or executing climate change projects in Africa, and working with communities across the African continent. Encompassing over 100 contribtions from across Africa, it is the most comprehensive publication on climate change adaptation in Africa ever produced

Plants and Plant Products in Local Markets Within Benin City and Environs

AbstractThe vulnerability of agriculture systems in Africa to climate change is directly and indirectly affecting the availability and diversity of plants and plant products available in local markets. In this chapter, markets in Benin City and environs were assessed to document the availability of plants and plant products. Markets were grouped into urban, suburban, and rural with each group having four markets. Majority of the plant and plant product vendors were women and 88 plant species belonging to 42 families were found. Their scientific and common names were documented as well as the parts of the plant and associated products available in the markets. Most of the plant and plant products found in local markets belong to major plant families. Urban markets had the highest diversity of plants and plant products. Three categories of plants and plant products were documented. Around 67% of the plants and plant products were categorized as whole plant/plant parts, 28% as processed plant parts, while 5% as reprocessed plant/plant parts. It was revealed that 86% of these plants are used as foods, 11% are for medicinal purposes, while 3% is used for other purposes. About 35% of plants and plant products across the markets were fruits, which is an indication that city and environs are a rich source of fruits. The local knowledge and practices associated with the plants and plant products can contribute towards formulating a strategic response for climate change impacts on agriculture, gender, poverty, food security, and plant diversity

Triple Helix as a Strategic Tool to Fast-Track Climate Change Adaptation in Rural Kenya: Case Study of Marsabit County

AbstractThe lack of affordable, clean, and reliable energy in Africa's rural areas forces people to resort to poor quality energy source, which is detrimental to the people's health and prevents the economic development of communities. Moreover, access to safe water and food security are concerns closely linked to health issues and children malnourishment. Recent climate change due to global warming has worsened the already critical situation.Electricity is well known to be an enabler of development as it allows the use of modern devices thus enabling the development of not only income-generating activities but also water pumping and food processing and conservation that can promote socioeconomic growth. However, all of this is difficult to achieve due to the lack of investors, local skills, awareness by the community, and often also government regulations.All the above mentioned barriers to the uptake of electricity in rural Kenya could be solved by the coordinated effort of government, private sector, and academia, also referred to as Triple Helix, in which each entity may partially take the other's role. This chapter discretizes the above and shows how a specific county (Marsabit) has benefited from this triple intervention. Existing government policies and actions and programs led by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and international agencies are reviewed, highlighting the current interconnection and gaps in promoting integrated actions toward climate change adaptation and energy access

Ecological Changes in the Zambezi River Basin

This research article was published in Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa, 2021.Africa faces a plethora of challenges and chief among these is a change in the climate (Zakaria and Maharjan 2014) which is one of the key factors affecting the ecology and hydrology of its river basins (Kusangaya et al. 2014). Beilfuss (2012) proposed that Africa’s arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change with the Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) being particularly at risk (Kling et al. 2014). After the Nile and Niger rivers, the ZRB is the next most trans-boundary river basin in Africa as it serves eight African countries. Consequently, water resource development planning is crucial, since any changes in climate will impact the hydrological cycle and the amount of water retained in hydrological systems (Beilfuss 2012) of which only up to 3 per cent is readily available as usable and shared freshwater. Like some Sub-Saharan countries, which have experienced up to 0.5 C increases in temperature (Hendrix and Glaser 2007), the Zambezi River Basin is also facing changes in climate (Ndhlovu 2013). A recent study by Kling et al.(2014) reported rises in temperature and more variable precipitation in the basin since the 1980s. Such historical climatic changes, and those projected towards the mid-century (2050), are of concern with serious social and economic implications to local communities (Mubaya et al. 2012). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected a global decadal temperature rise of 0.2 C (IPCC 2007). However, regional climat

Ecological infrastructure importance for drought mitigation in rural South African catchments: the Cacadu Catchment case example

Water scarcity is recognised as one of the significant challenges facing many countries, including South Africa. The threat of water scarcity is exacerbated by the coupled impacts of climate and anthropogenic drivers. Ongoing droughts and continued land cover change and degradation influence the ability of catchments to partition rainwater runoff, thereby affecting streamflow returns. However, quantifying land degradation accurately remains a challenge. This thesis used the theoretical lens of investing in ecological infrastructure to improve the drought mitigation function in rural catchments. This theoretical framework allows for a social-ecological systems approach to understand and facilitate science-based strategies for promoting ecosystem recovery. Specifically, this study aimed to explore the role and benefit of ecological infrastructure for improving drought mitigation, and consequently, water security for rural communities. Thus, this study sought to assess the consequences of human actions to catchment health status using the 15th Sustainable Development Goal indicator for the proportion of degraded land over the total land area as a surrogate. Secondly, hydrological modelling was used to describe how different land covers influence catchment hydrology, which related to how ecological infrastructure enables drought risk-reduction for mitigation regulation. Finally, this study developed a spatial prioritisation plan for restoration to improve drought mitigation for four focal ecological infrastructure (EI) categories (i.e. wetlands, riparian margins, abandoned agricultural fields and grasslands). The focal EI categories were selected for their importance in delivering water-related ecosystem services when sustainably managed. Chapter 1 sets the scene (i.e. provides the study background) and Chapter 2 provides a review of the literature. In Chapter 3, the recently released global GIS toolbox (TRENDS.EARTH) was used for tracking land change and for assessing the SDG 15.3.1 degradation indicator of i.e. Cacadu catchment over 15 years at a 300 m resolution. The results showed a declining trend in biomass productivity within the Cacadu catchment led to moderate degradation, with 16.79% of the total landscape degraded, which was determined by the pugin using the one-out, all-out rule. The incidence of degradation was detected in middle reaches of the catchment (i.e. S10F-J), while some improvement was detected in upper reaches (S10A-C) and lower reaches (S10J). In Chapter 4, a GIS-based Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) based on community stakeholder priorities, open-access spatial datasets and expert opinions, was used to identify EI focal areas that are best suitable for restoration to increase the drought mitigation capacity of the Cacadu catchment. The collected datasets provided three broad criteria (ecosystem health, water provision and social benefit) for establishing the AHP model using 12 spatial attributes. Prioritisation results show that up to 89% of the Cacadu catchment is suitable for restoration to improve drought mitigation. Catchments S10B-D, and S10F, S10G and S10J were highly prioritised while S10A, S10E and S10H received low priority, due to improving environmental conditions and low hydrological potential. Areas that were prioritised with consideration for local livelihoods overlap the areas for drought mitigation and form a network of villages from the middle to lower catchment reaches. Prioritised restoration areas with a consideration of societal benefit made up 0.56% of wetlands, 4.27% of riparian margins, 92.06% of abandoned croplands, and 51.86% of grasslands. Chapter 5 reports on use of the Pitman groundwater model to help understand the influence of land modification on catchment hydrology, and highlight the role of restoration interventions. The Cacadu catchment is ungauged, therefore the neighbouring Indwe catchment was used for parameter transfer through a spatial regionalisation technique. Results suggest that degradation increases surface runoff and aggravates recharge reduction, thereby reducing streamflow during low flow periods. In areas where there is natural land cover recovery, the Pitman Model simulated similar dry season streamflow to the natural land cover. Combining the outcomes from the three assessments allowed the study to highlight the role and benefits of ecological infrastructure in terms of drought mitigation. Study findings were interpreted to make recommendations for the role and benefit of ecological infrastructure for drought mitigation at a landscape scale and tertiary catchment level, within the context of available management options. The results support the notion that multiple science data sources can promote investments in ecological infrastructure. However, better spatial and temporal resolution datasets at a national level are still needed to improve the accuracy of studies such as the one outlined in this thesis. The study recommends adopting better ecosystem protection approaches and collaborative governance at multiple levels to reduce the vulnerability of rural communities to drought impacts.Thesis (MSc) -- Faculty of Science, Institute for Water Research, 202

World Water Development Report 4: Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk

Building on the comprehensive approach taken in World Water Development Reports (WWDRs) 1 and 2, and the holistic view taken in WWDR3, this fourth edition gives an account of the critical issues facing water's challenge areas and different regions and incorporates a deeper analysis of the external forces (i.e. drivers) linked to water. In doing so, the WWDR4 seeks to inform readers and raise awareness of the new threats arising from accelerated change and of the interconnected forces that create uncertainty and risk - ultimately emphasizing that these forces can be managed effectively and can even generate vital opportunities and benefits through innovative approaches to allocation, use and management of water

Gender in Agriculture Sourcebook

The purpose of the Sourcebook is to act as a guide for practitioners and technical staff in addressing gender issues and integrating gender-responsive actions in the design and implementation of agricultural projects and programs. It speaks not with gender specialists on how to improve their skills but rather reaches out to technical experts to guide them in thinking through how to integrate gender dimensions into their operations. The Sourcebook aims to deliver practical advice, guidelines, principles, and descriptions and illustrations of approaches that have worked so far to achieve the goal of effective gender mainstreaming in the agricultural operations of development agencies. It captures and expands the main messages of the World Development Report 2008: Agriculture for Development and is considered an important tool to facilitate the operationalization and implementation of the report's key principles on gender equality and women's empowerment