Internet traffic volumes characterization and forecasting

Internet usage increases every year and the need to estimate the growth of the generated traffic has become a major topic. Forecasting actual figures in advance is essential for bandwidth allocation, networking design and investment planning. In this thesis novel mathematical equations are presented to model and to predict long-term Internet traffic in terms of total aggregating volume, globally and more locally. Historical traffic data from consecutive years have revealed hidden numerical patterns as the values progress year over year and this trend can be well represented with appropriate mathematical relations. The proposed formulae have excellent fitting properties over long-history measurements and can indicate forthcoming traffic for the next years with an exceptionally low prediction error. In cases where pending traffic data have already become available, the suggested equations provide more successful results than the respective projections that come from worldwide leading research. The studies also imply that future traffic strongly depends on the past activity and on the growth of Internet users, provided that a big and representative sample of pertinent data exists from large geographical areas. To the best of my knowledge this work is the first to introduce effective prediction methods that exclusively rely on the static attributes and the progression properties of historical values

A forecast of the Cloud

IT ses ofta som en del av lösningen för att uppnå ett hållbart samhälle genom till exempel minskat resande, optimering av industri- och jordbruksprocesser, intelligenta elmätare och smarta hem. Något man sällan reflekterar över är att ITbranschen själv också bidrar till elanvändningen. Ett nytt fenomen inom IT-världen är molnet som ger möjlighet till som det verkar outtömliga resurser i form av lagrings- och beräkningskapacitet, konstant uppkoppling och snabb överföring. Det finns många definitioner av molnet men om man ser på det materiellt består det av datahallar i olika storlek samt fasta och trådlösa nätverk som drar el dygnet runt. Om användningen av molntjänster ökar – hur mycket kommer elanvändningen öka och med den också den globala uppvärmningen? I denna studie kommer molnet definieras, materialiseras och kvantifieras för att kunna bedöma dess elbehov idag och i framtiden. Lagar och regler för energieffektivisering kommer undersökas och framtida prognoser tas fram genom tillväxtmodeller. De huvudsakliga resultaten är: - Det finns inga lagar för hur energieffektiva datahallar måste vara, även om det görs en del inom området på frivillig basis och företag tar på sig egna miljömål. Europeiska unionen inkluderade vissa delar av servrar i ekodesigndirektivet år 2014 vilket visar på att problemet har börjat tas upp. - Användningen av molnet kommer öka explosionsartat i framtiden och det finns stor potential för energieffektivisering när det gäller lagring, bearbetning och överföring av data. Beroende på hur mycket som energieffektiviseras kan molnet komma att konsumera mellan 5 000 och 10 000 TWh år 2040. Detta kan jämföras med hela IT-branschen som 2010 drog mellan 700 och 1 000 TWh. Om man jämför molnet och traditionell IT är molnet oftast mer energieffektivt bland annat därför att resurser förbrukas efter behov och servrar utnyttjas optimalt. Det finns alltså ännu större potential för energieffektivisering om hela IT-sektorn inkluderas. - Om inte energieffektivisering sker alls kommer molnets energiförbrukning öka bortom greppbara magnituder. Det finns dock också studier som pekar på att den totala energikonsumtionen kan minska sett från idag, även om användningen av molnet ökar, då teknik med mycket bättre energiprestanda håller på att utvecklas. - Då dagens lagstiftning inte täcker in energieffektivisering ligger ett stort ansvar på företag att göra detta på frivillig basis, vilket till viss del motiveras av att de sparar pengar genom att energieffektivisera. Det är dock mycket viktigt att denna energiåtgång uppmärksammas och att den inte tillåts skena iväg i framtiden.Information and communication technology (ICT) is often seen as part of the solution for a sustainable society, for example through reduced travel, optimization of industrial and agricultural processes, smart meters and smart homes. However, something usually left unconsidered is the electricity consumption of ICT itself. A new phenomenon of the ICT industry is the Cloud that enables seemingly inexhaustible resources in terms of storage and computing capacity, constant connection and fast transfer. There are many definitions of cloud but if looked at from a material point of view it consists of data centers in different sizes as well as wired and wireless networks that consumes electricity. If usage of cloud services increase - how much will electricity consumption and with it global warming increase? In this study the cloud is defined, materialized and quantified in order to estimate its electricity demand today and in the future. Laws and regulations for energy efficiency will be examined and future forecasts are created with the use of growth models. The main results are: - There are no regulations of how energy efficient data centers must be, even though some companies set their own environmental goals and voluntary projects are carried out. The European Union included some parts of servers in the Ecodesign Directive in 2014, which shows that the problem has begun to be addressed. - The usage of the cloud will increase dramatically in the future and there is great potential to improve energy efficiency in terms of storage, processing and transmission of data. Depending on how energy efficient the cloud will be it can consume between 5 000 and 10 000 TWh in 2040. This can be compared to the entire ICT industry which consumed between 700 and 1 000 TWh in 2010. If the cloud is compared with traditional IT it is usually more energy efficient as resources are pooled and used when needed and servers are utilized optimally. Therefore there is even greater potential for improving energy efficiency if the entire ICT sector is included. - If there are no energy efficiency improvements at all the cloud’s energy consumption will increase beyond graspable magnitudes. However, there are also studies that indicate that the total energy consumption can decrease in the future, even though the use of the cloud increases, due to new efficient technologies currently under development. - As current regulations do not include energy efficiency of data centers, a huge responsibility is placed at companies to do this on a voluntary basis. The companies do however have a self-interest to improve energy efficiency as it saves them money - but is it enough? It is very important that this energy consumption is recognized and is not allowed to increase out of control in the future.Den ökande användningen av onlinetjänster medför att elkonsumtionen från datahallar och nätverk kommer skjuta i höjden om vi inte energieffektiviserar. Idag saknas det generellt lagar om hur effektiva datacenter måste vara. Ett enormt ansvar läggs på att företag själva är förutseende och satsar på energieffektiv teknik. Det finns dock stora möjligheter att spara energi, både för datahallar och nätverk - om viljan finns

Environmental impact assessment of online advertising

There are no commonly agreed ways to assess the total energy consumption of the Internet. Estimating the Internet's energy footprint is challenging because of the interconnectedness associated with even seemingly simple aspects of energy consumption. The first contribution of this paper is a common modular and layered framework, which allows researchers to assess both energy consumption and CO2e emissions of any Internet service. The framework allows assessing the energy consumption depending on the research scope and specific system boundaries. Further, the proposed framework allows researchers without domain expertise to make such an assessment by using intermediate results as data sources, while analyzing the related uncertainties. The second contribution is an estimate of the energy consumption and CO2e emissions of online advertising by utilizing our proposed framework. The third contribution is an assessment of the energy consumption of invalid traffic associated with online advertising. The second and third contributions are used to validate the first. The online advertising ecosystem resides in the core of the Internet, and it is the sole source of funding for many online services. Therefore, it is an essential factor in the analysis of the Internet's energy footprint. As a result, in 2016, online advertising consumed 20–282 TWh of energy. In the same year, the total infrastructure consumption ranged from 791 to 1334 TWh. With extrapolated 2016 input factor values without uncertainties, online advertising consumed 106 TWh of energy and the infrastructure 1059 TWh. With the emission factor of 0.5656 kg CO2e/kWh, we calculated the carbon emissions of online advertising, and found it produces 60 Mt CO2e (between 12 and 159 Mt of CO2e when considering uncertainty). The share of fraudulent online advertising traffic was 13.87 Mt of CO2e emissions (between 2.65 and 36.78 Mt of CO2e when considering uncertainty). The global impact of online advertising is multidimensional. Online advertising affects the environment by consuming significant amounts of energy, leading to the production CO2e emissions. Hundreds of billions of ad dollars are exchanged yearly, placing online advertising in a significant role economically. It has become an important and acknowledged component of the online-bound society, largely due to its integration with the Internet and the amount of revenue generated through it

Revisiting Japan’s Gross National Cool: Exporting Japanese Animation in the International Marketplace

In 2002, writer Douglas McCray coined the term “Japan’s Gross National Cool,” which was used to describe Japan’s distinct cultural exports. More specifically, though a recent phenomenon, the current academic consensus indicates that Japanese animation, or anime, is a unique Japanese cultural export based on McCray’s concept. However, from McCray’s article in 2002 to 2015, the anime industry globally has changed in several key ways: popular consumption has grown, Internet and streaming use has increased, and Internet piracy has increased. This leads to necessitating a change in business concepts for marketing the medium worldwide by analyzing specific marketing mechanisms, but primarily anti-piracy precedents in Taiwan and the streaming company Crunchyroll