Development and Validation of a Rule-based Time Series Complexity Scoring Technique to Support Design of Adaptive Forecasting DSS

Evidence from forecasting research gives reason to believe that understanding time series complexity can enable design of adaptive forecasting decision support systems (FDSSs) to positively support forecasting behaviors and accuracy of outcomes. Yet, such FDSS design capabilities have not been formally explored because there exists no systematic approach to identifying series complexity. This study describes the development and validation of a rule-based complexity scoring technique (CST) that generates a complexity score for time series using 12 rules that rely on 14 features of series. The rule-based schema was developed on 74 series and validated on 52 holdback series using well-accepted forecasting methods as benchmarks. A supporting experimental validation was conducted with 14 participants who generated 336 structured judgmental forecasts for sets of series classified as simple or complex by the CST. Benchmark comparisons validated the CST by confirming, as hypothesized, that forecasting accuracy was lower for series scored by the technique as complex when compared to the accuracy of those scored as simple. The study concludes with a comprehensive framework for design of FDSS that can integrate the CST to adaptively support forecasters under varied conditions of series complexity. The framework is founded on the concepts of restrictiveness and guidance and offers specific recommendations on how these elements can be built in FDSS to support complexity

Language: The missing selection pressure

Human beings are talkative. What advantage did their ancestors find in communicating so much? Numerous authors consider this advantage to be "obvious" and "enormous". If so, the problem of the evolutionary emergence of language amounts to explaining why none of the other primate species evolved anything even remotely similar to language. What I propose here is to reverse the picture. On closer examination, language resembles a losing strategy. Competing for providing other individuals with information, sometimes striving to be heard, makes apparently no sense within a Darwinian framework. At face value, language as we can observe it should never have existed or should have been counter-selected. In other words, the selection pressure that led to language is still missing. The solution I propose consists in regarding language as a social signaling device that developed in a context of generalized insecurity that is unique to our species. By talking, individuals advertise their alertness and their ability to get informed. This hypothesis is shown to be compatible with many characteristics of language that otherwise are left unexplained.Comment: 34 pages, 3 figure

Context Aware Adaptable Applications - A global approach

Actual applications (mostly component based) requirements cannot be expressed without a ubiquitous and mobile part for end-users as well as for M2M applications (Machine to Machine). Such an evolution implies context management in order to evaluate the consequences of the mobility and corresponding mechanisms to adapt or to be adapted to the new environment. Applications are then qualified as context aware applications. This first part of this paper presents an overview of context and its management by application adaptation. This part starts by a definition and proposes a model for the context. It also presents various techniques to adapt applications to the context: from self-adaptation to supervised approached. The second part is an overview of architectures for adaptable applications. It focuses on platforms based solutions and shows information flows between application, platform and context. Finally it makes a synthesis proposition with a platform for adaptable context-aware applications called Kalimucho. Then we present implementations tools for software components and a dataflow models in order to implement the Kalimucho platform

Is resilience a normative concept?

In this paper, we engage with the question of the normative content of the resilience concept. The issues are approached in two consecutive steps. First, we proceed from a narrow construal of the resilience concept – as the ability of a system to absorb a disturbance – and show that under an analysis of normative concepts as evaluative concepts resilience comes out as descriptive. In the second part of the paper, we argue that (1) for systems of interest (primarily social systems or system with a social component) we seem to have options with respect to how they are described and (2) that this matters for what is to be taken as a sign of resilience as opposed to a sign of the lack of resilience for such systems. We discuss the implications of this for how the concept should be applied in practice and suggest that users of the resilience concept face a choice between versions of the concept that are either ontologically or normatively charged

Architecural Principles and Components of Adaptive Process Management Technology

Process-aware information systems (PAIS) must not freeze business processes, but should enable authorized users to deviate from the implemented workflows on-the-fly and to dynamically evolve them over time. While there has been a lot of work on the theoretical foundations of dynamic process changes, there is still a lack of implemented PAIS providing this dynamics. Designing the architecture of such adaptive PAIS, however, constitutes a big challenge due to the high complexity coming with dynamic changes. Besides this, performance, robustness, security and usability of the PAIS must not be affected by the added flexibility. In the AristaFlow project we follow a holistic approach to master this complexity. Based on a conceptual framework for adaptive process management, we have designed a sophisticated architecture for next generation process management technology. This paper discusses major design goals and basic architectural principles, gives insights into selected system components, and shows how change support features can be realized in an integrated and efficient manner

Identifying and Evaluating Change Patterns and Change Support Features in Process-Aware Information Systems.

In order to provide effective support, the introduction of process-aware information systems (PAIS) must not freeze existing business processes. Instead PAIS should allow authorized users to flexibly deviate from the predefined processes if required and to evolve business processes in a controlled manner over time. Many software vendors promise flexible system solutions for realizing such adaptive PAIS, but are often unable to cope with fundamental issues elated to process change (e.g., correctness and robustness). The existence of different process support paradigms and the lack of methods for comparing existing change approaches makes it difficult for PAIS engineers to choose the adequate technology. In this paper we suggest a set of changes patterns and change support features to foster systematic comparison of existing process management technology with respect to change support. Based on these change patterns and features, we provide a detailed analysis and evaluation of selected systems from both academia and industry

A unified view of data-intensive flows in business intelligence systems : a survey

Data-intensive flows are central processes in today’s business intelligence (BI) systems, deploying different technologies to deliver data, from a multitude of data sources, in user-preferred and analysis-ready formats. To meet complex requirements of next generation BI systems, we often need an effective combination of the traditionally batched extract-transform-load (ETL) processes that populate a data warehouse (DW) from integrated data sources, and more real-time and operational data flows that integrate source data at runtime. Both academia and industry thus must have a clear understanding of the foundations of data-intensive flows and the challenges of moving towards next generation BI environments. In this paper we present a survey of today’s research on data-intensive flows and the related fundamental fields of database theory. The study is based on a proposed set of dimensions describing the important challenges of data-intensive flows in the next generation BI setting. As a result of this survey, we envision an architecture of a system for managing the lifecycle of data-intensive flows. The results further provide a comprehensive understanding of data-intensive flows, recognizing challenges that still are to be addressed, and how the current solutions can be applied for addressing these challenges.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Keeping the Cost of Process Change Low through Refactoring

With the increasing adoption of process-aware information systems (PAIS) large process model repositories have emerged. Over time respective models have to be re-aligned to the real world business processes through customization or adaptation. This bears the risk that model redundancies are introduced and complexity is increased. If no continuous investment is made in keeping models simple, changes are becoming increasingly costly and error-prone. Although refactoring techniques are widely used in software engineering to address related problems, this does not yet constitute state-of-the art in business process management. Consequently, process designers either have to refactor process models by hand or can not apply respective techniques at all. In this paper we propose a set of techniques for refactoring large process repositories, which are behaviour-preserving. The proposed refactorings enable process designers to effectively deal with model complexity by making process models easier to change, less error-prone and better understandable

Architectural Design of Flexible Process Management Technology

To provide effective support, process-aware information systems (PAIS) must not freeze existing business processes. Instead they should enable authorized users to deviate on-the-fly from the implemented processes and to dynamically evolve them over time. While there has been a lot of work on the theoretical foundations of dynamic process changes, there is still a lack of PAIS implementing this dynamics. Designing the architecture of respective technology constitutes a big challenge due to the high complexity coming with dynamic processes. Besides this, performance, robustness, security and usability of the system must not be affected by the added flexibility. In the AristaFlow project we have taken a holistic approach to master this complexity. Based on a conceptual framework for flexible process enactment and dynamic processes, we have designed a sophisticated architecture for next generation process management technology. This paper discusses major design goals and basic architectural principles, gives insights into selected system components, and shows how change support features can be realized in an integrated and effective manner

Using Ontologies for the Design of Data Warehouses

Obtaining an implementation of a data warehouse is a complex task that forces designers to acquire wide knowledge of the domain, thus requiring a high level of expertise and becoming it a prone-to-fail task. Based on our experience, we have detected a set of situations we have faced up with in real-world projects in which we believe that the use of ontologies will improve several aspects of the design of data warehouses. The aim of this article is to describe several shortcomings of current data warehouse design approaches and discuss the benefit of using ontologies to overcome them. This work is a starting point for discussing the convenience of using ontologies in data warehouse design.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figure