Multicriteria scenario analysis on electricity production

Energy planning is a complex process involving multiple and conflicting objectives with many agents able to influence decisions. This complexity is frequently addressed with the use of multicriteria tools, relying on a set of criteria and different methods to aggregate all the information in a final ranking of the available alternatives. This paper describes the application of a multicriteria decision tool for the analysis of Portuguese electricity scenarios. A set of criteria is proposed aiming to include social, economic, environmental and technical aspects. Criteria weighting was directly addressed considering 5 approaches: equitable weights, financial, technological, social and environmental perspectives. Results indicate that close to 100% RES scenario is the best option under a social perspective, base scenario represents the best option on a technical approach and scenarios relying on natural gas and wind power units are the best options for the electricity system under equitable weights, economic and environmental approaches.FCT - Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia()The author wish to acknowledge the support of ALGORITMI, a research Centre at the University of Minho. This work is supported by National Funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project PEst- OE/UID/CEC00319/2013.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The Future of Software Engineering by 2050

According to the huge criticality of using advanced software systems and the great demands of providing updated and qualified programs, this paper reflects some future perspectives towards the importance of software in managing everything in the world life over the next thirty years. Moreover, the paper presents the challenges which face the recent and the future generations as a result of this huge revolution of technology and automations. In addition to that, the writer would provide some solutions for those obstacles in order to enhance the role of software engineers in 2050. Also the paper reviews the related literature and surveys the point of view of software engineering experts by assigning an online interview with six open ended questions to examine their perspectives towards the future of Internet of things, Artificial intelligence, ubiquitous computing, and system of systems. The majority of ideas reflected the humanity fears of technology and replacing people with robots in the job fields. Furthermore, some experts encouraged the idea of having smart homes, and wearable devices Keywords: advanced Software; system of systems; 3D building printer, internet of things, artificial intelligence, ubiquitous computing, and system of systems. DOI: 10.7176/CEIS/11-2-06 Publication date: April 30th 202

La prise de décision et la modélisation d’incertitude pour l’analyse multi-critère des systèmes complexes énergétiques

This Ph. D. work addresses the vulnerability analysis of safety-critical systems (e.g., nuclear power plants) within a framework that combines the disciplines of risk analysis and multi-criteria decision-making. The scientific contribution follows four directions: (i) a quantitative hierarchical model is developed to characterize the susceptibility of safety-critical systems to multiple types of hazard, within the needed `all-hazard' view of the problem currently emerging in the risk analysis field; (ii) the quantitative assessment of vulnerability is tackled by an empirical classification framework: to this aim, a model, relying on the Majority Rule Sorting (MR-Sort) Method, typically used in the decision analysis field, is built on the basis of a (limited-size) set of data representing (a priori-known) vulnerability classification examples; (iii) three different approaches (namely, a model-retrieval-based method, the Bootstrap method and the leave-one-out cross-validation technique) are developed and applied to provide a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments), accounting for the uncertainty introduced into the analysis by the empirical construction of the vulnerability model; (iv) on the basis of the models developed, an inverse classification problem is solved to identify a set of protective actions which effectively reduce the level of vulnerability of the critical system under consideration. Two approaches are developed to this aim: the former is based on a novel sensitivity indicator, the latter on optimization.Applications on fictitious and real case studies in the nuclear power plant risk field demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.Ce travail de thèse doctorale traite l'analyse de la vulnérabilité des systèmes critiques pour la sécurité (par exemple, les centrales nucléaires) dans un cadre qui combine les disciplines de l'analyse des risques et de la prise de décision de multi-critères.La contribution scientifique suit quatre directions: (i) un modèle hiérarchique et quantitative est développé pour caractériser la susceptibilité des systèmes critiques pour la sécurité à plusieurs types de danger, en ayant la vue de `tous risques' sur le problème actuellement émergeant dans le domaine de l'analyse des risques; (ii) l'évaluation quantitative de la vulnérabilité est abordé par un cadre de classification empirique: à cette fin, un modèle, en se fondant sur la Majority Rule Sorting (MR-Sort) Méthode, généralement utilisés dans le domaine de la prise de décision, est construit sur la base d'un ensemble de données (en taille limitée) représentant (a priori connu) des exemples de classification de vulnérabilité; (iii) trois approches différentes (à savoir, une model-retrieval-based méthode, la méthode Bootstrap et la technique de validation croisée leave-one-out) sont élaborées et appliquées pour fournir une évaluation quantitative de la performance du modèle de classification (en termes de précision et de confiance dans les classifications), ce qui représente l'incertitude introduite dans l'analyse par la construction empirique du modèle de la vulnérabilité; (iv) basé sur des modèles développés, un problème de classification inverse est résolu à identifier un ensemble de mesures de protection qui réduisent efficacement le niveau de vulnérabilité du système critique à l’étude. Deux approches sont développées dans cet objectif: le premier est basé sur un nouvel indicateur de sensibilité, ce dernier sur l'optimisation.Les applications sur des études de cas fictifs et réels dans le domaine des risques de centrales nucléaires démontrent l'efficacité de la méthode proposée

IRGC Resource guide on Resilience

An edited collection of authored pieces comparing, contrasting, and integrating risk and resilience with an emphasis on ways to measure resilienc