Sensitivity Analysis for a Scenario-Based Reliability Prediction Model

As a popular means for capturing behavioural requirements, scenariosshow how components interact to provide system-level functionality.If component reliability information is available, scenarioscan be used to perform early system reliability assessment. Inprevious work we presented an automated approach for predictingsoftware system reliability that extends a scenario specificationto model (1) the probability of component failure, and (2) scenariotransition probabilities. Probabilistic behaviour models ofthe system are then synthesized from the extended scenario specification.From the system behaviour model, reliability predictioncan be computed. This paper complements our previous work andpresents a sensitivity analysis that supports reasoning about howcomponent reliability and usage profiles impact on the overall systemreliability. For this purpose, we present how the system reliabilityvaries as a function of the components reliabilities and thescenario transition probabilities. Taking into account the concurrentnature of component-based software systems, we also analysethe effect of implied scenarios prevention into the sensitivity analysisof our reliability prediction technique

Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part B: Application of the Analytical Framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives

Waveform-level time-domain simulation comparison study of three shipboard power system architectures

Detailed waveform-level modeling and simulation of three alternative shipboard power system architectures is presented herein. The three system architectures are based on conventional 60Hz medium-voltage ac (MVAC), higherfrequency 240Hz medium-voltage ac (HFAC) and mediumvoltage dc (MVDC) technologies. To support the quantitative assessment and comparison of these three different power system architectures, each technology was modeled using a common representative, notional baseline ship. The baseline ship represents a multi-mission destroyer fitted with an 80MW next generation integrated power system (NGIPS). Modeling of each power system architecture is set forth along with simulation studies for three fault scenarios. Each of the three power system architectures was implemented within the MATLAB/ Simulink environment. Continuity of service was evaluated for each architecture along with a fault scenario using an operability metric. After a brief description of the three power system architectures and the operability metric, quantitative results are presented.Center for Electromechanic

Life-cycle assessment of coal mining wastes upcycling

Coal extraction generates coal mining wastes (CMW) that lead to additional environmental burdens. This study assesses the potential environmental benefits of using these CMW as secondary materials in the production of precast concrete cladding panels. Potential environmental impacts are measured using life cycle assessment (LCA). The system under assessment is a multi-functional system, including both the management of CMW and the production of concrete panels. Company data have been used to perform the assessment. Preliminary results show, for the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, that the main impacts associated with wastes management are due to diesel consumption and direct emissions to groundwater. For the concrete panel production, the impacts are primarily induced by cement production. This BAU scenario will be compared to a recycling scenario where CMW are incorporated into concrete production. Based on this comparative LCA, recommendations as to the use of CMW into construction products will be provided

e-ESAS: Evolution of a Participatory Design-based Solution for Breast Cancer (BC) Patients in Rural Bangladesh

Healthcare facility is scarce for rural women in the developing world. The situation is worse for patients who are suffering from diseases that require long-term feedback-oriented monitoring such as breast cancer. Lack of motivation to go to the health centers on patients’ side due to sociocultural barriers, financial restrictions and transportation hazards results in inadequate data for proper assessment. Fortunately, mobile phones have penetrated the masses even in rural communities of the developing countries. In this scenario, a mobile phone-based remote symptom monitoring system (RSMS) with inspirational videos can serve the purpose of both patients and doctors. Here, we present the findings of our field study conducted on 39 breast cancer patients in rural Bangladesh. Based on the results of extensive field studies, we have categorized the challenges faced by patients in different phases of the treatment process. As a solution, we have designed, developed and deployed e-ESAS—the first mobile-based RSMS in rural context. Along with the detail need assessment of such a system, we describe the evolution of e-ESAS and the deployment results. We have included the unique and useful design lessons that we learned as e-ESAS evolved through participatory design process. The findings show how e-ESAS addresses several challenges faced by patients and doctors and positively impact their lives

A model for continuous monitoring of patients with major depression in short and long term periods

The final publication is available at IOS Press through http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/THC-161289BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Major depressive disorder causes more human suffering than any other disease affecting humankind. It has a high prevalence and it is predicted that it will be among the three leading causes of disease burden by 2030. The prevalence of depression, all of its social and personal costs, and its recurrent characteristics, put heavy constraints on the ability of the public healthcare system to provide sufficient support for patients with depression. In this research, a model for continuous monitoring and tracking of depression in both short-term and long-term periods is presented. This model is based on a new qualitative reasoning approach. METHOD: This paper describes the patient assessment unit of a major depression monitoring system that has three modules: a patient progress module, based on a qualitative reasoning model; an analysis module, based on expert knowledge and a rules-based system; and the communication module. These modules base their reasoning mainly on data of the patient's mood and life events that are obtained from the patient's responses to specific questionnaires (PHQ-9, M.I.N.I. and Brugha). The patient assessment unit provides synthetic and useful information for both patients and physicians, keeps them informed of the progress of patients, and alerts them in the case of necessity. RESULTS: A set of hypothetical patients has been defined based on clinically possible cases in order to perform a complete scenario evaluation. The results that have been verified by psychiatrists suggest the utility of the platform. CONCLUSION: The proposed major depression monitoring system takes advantage of current technologies and facilitates more frequent follow-up of the progress of patients during their home stay after being diagnosed with depression by a psychiatrist.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Energy, economic, and environmental assessment of the integrated production of palm oil biodiesel and sugarcane ethanol

The key objective of this study was to evaluate and compare, within the concept of integrated biorefining, the potential environmental gains of the life cycle, economic feasibility and energy balance of the production of bioenergetics from palm and sugarcane. In this context, the research model developed in this work involved several assessment techniques; in terms of environmental assessment, the tool used was the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) from the Well-To-Tank perspective, which is based on the LCA “cradle-to-gate” assignment method. The environmental assessment was performed using SimaPro v.8.0.3 software and the impacts were quantified using the IMPACT 2002+ method. On the other hand, energy performance evaluation was based on the 1st law indicators. Likewise, economic feasibility was based on the evaluation of the fixed capital investment index and the estimate of investment costs for the entire integrated system. Two different scenarios were proposed in order to compare and evaluate traditional systems with the integrated biorefinery. The first conversion scenario (baseline scenario) consisted of a traditional palm oil extraction plant in addition to an ethanol and sugar plant, concerning the use of fossil fuels in all stages of production. The second conversion scenario (improved scenario) explored the substitution of fossil energy sources as well as the energy recovery of residual biomass in more efficient energy conversion systems. The results indicated significant reductions of 29.5% and 29.1% in the global warming impact category when the baseline scenario was compared to the improved scenario. Additionally, the improved scenario achieved a reduction of 2.1 g CO2eq MJ−1 (ethanol) and 2.61 g CO2eq MJ−1 (biodiesel). On the other hand, the improved scenario presented better energy rates since it showed an increase of 3.82% in the global efficiency of the system and produced 106.32 kWh more per ton of processed raw material. Finally, when considering the Life Cycle Energy Efficiency, an increase of 83% was observed and in the case of the Renewability Factor showed an increase of 7.12 energy units. Integration is also economically feasible; however, it could be significantly improved through fiscal incentives founded on the reduction of fossil energy use, enhanced conversion yielding, and improvements in conversion technologies

Old-Age Security Abroad: The Background of Titles II and VIII of the Social Security Act

This research is an attempt to create a comprehensive assessment framework for identifying and assessing potential improvement options of cement production systems. From an environmental systems analysis perspective, this study provides both an empirical account and a methodological approach for quantifying the CO2 footprint of a cement production system. An attributional Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is performed to analyze the CO2 footprint of several products of a cement production system in Germany which consists of three dierent plants. Based on the results of the LCA study, six key performance indicators are dened as the basis for a simplied LCA model. This model is used to quantify the CO2 footprint of dierent versions of the cement production system. In order to identify potential improvement options, a framework for Multi-Criteria Assessment (MCA) is developed. The search and classication guideline of this framework is based on the concepts of Cleaner Production, Industrial Ecology, and Industrial Symbiosis. It allows systematic identication and classication of potential improvement options. In addition, it can be used for feasibility and applicability evaluation of dierent options. This MCA is applied both on a generic level, reecting the future landscape of the industry, and on a production organization level re ecting the most applicable possibilities for change. Based on this assessment a few appropriate futureoriented scenarios for the studied cement production system are constructed. The simplied LCA model is used to quantify the CO2 footprint of the production system for each scenario. By integrating Life Cycle Assessment and Multi-Criteria Assessment approaches, this study provides a comprehensive assessment method for identifying suitable industrial developments and quantifying the CO2 footprint improvements that might be achieved by their implementation. The results of this study emphasis, although by utilizing alternative fuels and more ecient production facility, it is possible to improve the CO2 footprint of clinker, radical improvements can be achieved on the portfolio level. Compared to Portland cement, very high reduction of CO2 footprint can be achieved if clinker is replaced with low carbon alternatives, such as Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GBFS) which are the by-products of other  industrial production. Benchmarking a cement production system by its portfolio product is therefore a more reasonable approach, compared to focusing on the performance of its clinker production. This study showed that Industrial Symbiosis, that is, over the fence initiatives for material and energy exchanges and collaboration with nontraditional partners, are relevant to cement industry. However, the contingent nature of these strategies should always be noted, because the mere exercise of such activities may not lead to a more resource ecient production system. Therefore, in search for potential improvements, it is important to keep the search horizon as wide as possible, however, assess the potential improvements in each particular case. The comprehensive framework developed and applied in this research is an attempt in this direction