Time Blocks Decomposition of Multistage Stochastic Optimization Problems

Multistage stochastic optimization problems are, by essence, complex because their solutions are indexed both by stages (time) and by uncertainties (scenarios). Their large scale nature makes decomposition methods appealing.The most common approaches are time decomposition --- and state-based resolution methods, like stochastic dynamic programming, in stochastic optimal control --- and scenario decomposition --- like progressive hedging in stochastic programming. We present a method to decompose multistage stochastic optimization problems by time blocks, which covers both stochastic programming and stochastic dynamic programming. Once established a dynamic programming equation with value functions defined on the history space (a history is a sequence of uncertainties and controls), we provide conditions to reduce the history using a compressed "state" variable. This reduction is done by time blocks, that is, at stages that are not necessarily all the original unit stages, and we prove areduced dynamic programming equation. Then, we apply the reduction method by time blocks to \emph{two time-scales} stochastic optimization problems and to a novel class of so-called \emph{decision-hazard-decision} problems, arising in many practical situations, like in stock management. The \emph{time blocks decomposition} scheme is as follows: we use dynamic programming at slow time scale where the slow time scale noises are supposed to be stagewise independent, and we produce slow time scale Bellman functions; then, we use stochastic programming at short time scale, within two consecutive slow time steps, with the final short time scale cost given by the slow time scale Bellman functions, and without assuming stagewise independence for the short time scale noises

A multi-stage stochastic programming for lot-sizing and scheduling under demand uncertainty

A stochastic lot-sizing and scheduling problem with demand uncertainty is studied in this paper. Lot-sizing determines the batch size for each product and scheduling decides the sequence of production. A multi-stage stochastic programming model is developed to minimize overall system costs including production cost, setup cost, inventory cost and backlog cost. We aim to find the optimal production sequence and resource allocation decisions. Demand uncertainty is represented by scenario trees using moment matching technique. Scenario reduction is used to select scenarios with the best representation of original set. A case study based on a manufacturing company has been conducted to illustrate and verify the model. We compared the two-stage stochastic programming model to the multi-stage stochastic programming model. The major motivation to adopt multi-stage stochastic programming models is that it extends the two-stage stochastic programming models by allowing revised decision at each period based on the previous realizations of uncertainty as well as decisions. Stability test and weak out-of-sample test are applied to find an appropriate scenario sample size. By using the multi-stage stochastic programming model, we improved the quality of solution by 10–13%

A Neuroevolutionary Approach to Stochastic Inventory Control in Multi-Echelon Systems

Stochastic inventory control in multi-echelon systems poses hard problems in optimisation under uncertainty. Stochastic programming can solve small instances optimally, and approximately solve larger instances via scenario reduction techniques, but it cannot handle arbitrary nonlinear constraints or other non-standard features. Simulation optimisation is an alternative approach that has recently been applied to such problems, using policies that require only a few decision variables to be determined. However, to find optimal or near-optimal solutions we must consider exponentially large scenario trees with a corresponding number of decision variables. We propose instead a neuroevolutionary approach: using an artificial neural network to compactly represent the scenario tree, and training the network by a simulation-based evolutionary algorithm. We show experimentally that this method can quickly find high-quality plans using networks of a very simple form

Problem-based optimal scenario generation and reduction in stochastic programming

Scenarios are indispensable ingredients for the numerical solution of stochastic programs. Earlier approaches to optimal scenario generation and reduction are based on stability arguments involving distances of probability measures. In this paper we review those ideas and suggest to make use of stability estimates based only on problem specific data. For linear two-stage stochastic programs we show that the problem-based approach to optimal scenario generation can be reformulated as best approximation problem for the expected recourse function which in turn can be rewritten as a generalized semi-infinite program. We show that the latter is convex if either right-hand sides or costs are random and can be transformed into a semi-infinite program in a number of cases. We also consider problem-based optimal scenario reduction for two-stage models and optimal scenario generation for chance constrained programs. Finally, we discuss problem-based scenario generation for the classical newsvendor problem

Applying Scenario Reduction Heuristics in Stochastic Programming for Phlebotomist Scheduling

Laboratory services in healthcare play a vital role in inpatient care. Studies have indicated laboratory data affect approximately 65% of the most critical decisions on admission, discharge, and medication. This research focuses on improving phlebotomist performance in laboratory facilities of large hospital systems. A two-stage stochastic integer linear programming (SILP) model is formulated to determine better weekly phlebotomist schedules and blood collection assignments. The objective of the two-stage SILP model is to balance the workload of the phlebotomists within and between shifts, as reducing workload imbalance will result in improved patient care. Due to the size of the two-stage SILP model, a scenario reduction model has been proposed as a solution approach. The scenario reduction heuristic is formulated as a linear programming model and the results indicate the scenarios with the largest likelihood of occurrence. These selected scenarios will be tested in the two-stage SILP model to determine weekly scheduling policies and blood draw assignments that will balance phlebotomist workload and improve overall performance

Problem-based optimal scenario generation and reduction in stochastic programming

Scenarios are indispensable ingredients for the numerical solution of stochastic programs. Earlier approaches to optimal scenario generation and reduction are based on stability arguments involving distances of probability measures. In this paper we review those ideas and suggest to make use of stability estimates based only on problem specific data. For linear two-stage stochastic programs we show that the problem-based approach to optimal scenario generation can be reformulated as best approximation problem for the expected recourse function which in turn can be rewritten as a generalized semi-infinite program. We show that the latter is convex if either right-hand sides or costs are random and can be transformed into a semi-infinite program in a number of cases. We also consider problem-based optimal scenario reduction for two-stage models and optimal scenario generation for chance constrained programs. Finally, we discuss problem-based scenario generation for the classical newsvendor problem

Discrepancy distances and scenario reduction in two-stage stochastic integer programming

Polyhedral discrepancies are relevant for the quantitative stability of mixed-integer two-stage and chance constrained stochastic programs. We study the problem of optimal scenario reduction for a discrete probability distribution with respect to certain polyhedral discrepancies and develop algorithms for determining the optimally reduced distribution approximately. Encouraging numerical experience for optimal scenario reduction is provided

Application of scenario reduction to LDC and risk based generation expansion planning

Abstract: Two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming models are formulated for minimizing expected cost or Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of a long-term power generation expansion planning problem incorporating load duration curves. The multivariate stochastic processes, such as electricity demands and fuel prices, are modeled as geometric Brownian motion (GBM) processes. Scenario paths for their future evolution are generated by statistical extrapolation of long-term historical trends. The size of the scenario set is controlled by using increasing length time periods in a tree structure. Nevertheless, some method of scenario thinning is necessary to achieve manageable solution times. To mitigate the computational complexity of the forward selection heuristic for scenario reduction, a combined heuristic scenario reduction method named Forward Selection in Wait-and-see Clusters (FSWC) is applied to the large scenario set. Numerical results for a twenty year generation expansion planning case study indicate substantial computational savings to achieve similar solutions as those obtained by forward selection alone

Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming for Operation of DER Aggregators Under Multi-Dimensional Uncertainty

The operation of aggregators of distributed energy resources (DER) is highly complex, since it entails the optimal coordination of a diverse portfolio of DER under multiple sources of uncertainty. The large number of possible stochastic realizations that arise, can lead to complex operational models that become problematic in real-time market environments. Previous stochastic programming approaches resort to two-stage uncertainty models and scenario reduction techniques to preserve the tractability of the problem. However, two-stage models cannot fully capture the evolution of uncertain processes and the a priori scenario selection can lead to suboptimal decisions. In this context, this paper develops a novel stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) approach which does not require discretization of either the state space or the uncertain variables and can be efficiently applied to a multi-stage uncertainty model. Temporal dependencies of the uncertain variables as well as dependencies among different uncertain variables can be captured through the integration of any linear multidimensional stochastic model, and it is showcased for a p-order vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The proposed approach is compared against a traditional scenario-tree-based approach through a Monte-Carlo validation process, and is demonstrated to achieve a better trade-off between solution efficiency and computational effort