Convergence of large deviation estimators

We study the convergence of statistical estimators used in the estimation of large deviation functions describing the fluctuations of equilibrium, nonequilibrium, and manmade stochastic systems. We give conditions for the convergence of these estimators with sample size, based on the boundedness or unboundedness of the quantity sampled, and discuss how statistical errors should be defined in different parts of the convergence region. Our results shed light on previous reports of 'phase transitions' in the statistics of free energy estimators and establish a general framework for reliably estimating large deviation functions from simulation and experimental data and identifying parameter regions where this estimation converges.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures. v2: corrections focusing the paper on large deviations; v3: minor corrections, close to published versio

Exact Sampling of Stationary and Time-Reversed Queues

We provide the first algorithm that under minimal assumptions allows to simulate the stationary waiting-time sequence of a single-server queue backwards in time, jointly with the input processes of the queue (inter-arrival and service times). The single-server queue is useful in applications of DCFTP (Dominated Coupling From The Past), which is a well known protocol for simulation without bias from steady-state distributions. Our algorithm terminates in finite time assuming only finite mean of the inter-arrival and service times. In order to simulate the single-server queue in stationarity until the first idle period in finite expected termination time we require the existence of finite variance. This requirement is also necessary for such idle time (which is a natural coalescence time in DCFTP applications) to have finite mean. Thus, in this sense, our algorithm is applicable under minimal assumptions.Comment: 30 pages, 3 figures, Journa

Perfect simulation for interacting point processes, loss networks and Ising models

We present a perfect simulation algorithm for measures that are absolutely continuous with respect to some Poisson process and can be obtained as invariant measures of birth-and-death processes. Examples include area- and perimeter-interacting point processes (with stochastic grains), invariant measures of loss networks, and the Ising contour and random cluster models. The algorithm does not involve couplings of the process with different initial conditions and it is not tied up to monotonicity requirements. Furthermore, it directly provides perfect samples of finite windows of the infinite-volume measure, subjected to time and space ``user-impatience bias''. The algorithm is based on a two-step procedure: (i) a perfect-simulation scheme for a (finite and random) relevant portion of a (space-time) marked Poisson processes (free birth-and-death process, free loss networks), and (ii) a ``cleaning'' algorithm that trims out this process according to the interaction rules of the target process. The first step involves the perfect generation of ``ancestors'' of a given object, that is of predecessors that may have an influence on the birth-rate under the target process. The second step, and hence the whole procedure, is feasible if these ``ancestors'' form a finite set with probability one. We present a sufficiency criteria for this condition, based on the absence of infinite clusters for an associated (backwards) oriented percolation model.Comment: Revised version after referee of SPA: 39 page

Studies in Stochastic Networks: Efficient Monte-Carlo Methods, Modeling and Asymptotic Analysis

This dissertation contains two parts. The first part develops a series of bias reduction techniques for: point processes on stable unbounded regions, steady-state distribution of infinite server queues, steady-state distribution of multi-server loss queues and loss networks and sample path of stochastic differential equations. These techniques can be applied for efficient performance evaluation and optimization of the corresponding stochastic models. We perform detailed running time analysis under heavy traffic of the perfect sampling algorithms for infinite server queues and multi-server loss queues and prove that the algorithms achieve nearly optimal order of complexity. The second part aims to model and analyze the load-dependent slowdown effect in service systems. One important phenomenon we observe in such systems is bi-stability, where the system alternates randomly between two performance regions. We conduct heavy traffic asymptotic analysis of system dynamics and provide operational solutions to avoid the bad performance region

Techniques for the Fast Simulation of Models of Highly dependable Systems

With the ever-increasing complexity and requirements of highly dependable systems, their evaluation during design and operation is becoming more crucial. Realistic models of such systems are often not amenable to analysis using conventional analytic or numerical methods. Therefore, analysts and designers turn to simulation to evaluate these models. However, accurate estimation of dependability measures of these models requires that the simulation frequently observes system failures, which are rare events in highly dependable systems. This renders ordinary Simulation impractical for evaluating such systems. To overcome this problem, simulation techniques based on importance sampling have been developed, and are very effective in certain settings. When importance sampling works well, simulation run lengths can be reduced by several orders of magnitude when estimating transient as well as steady-state dependability measures. This paper reviews some of the importance-sampling techniques that have been developed in recent years to estimate dependability measures efficiently in Markov and nonMarkov models of highly dependable system

Simple and explicit bounds for multi-server queues with 1/(1−ρ)1/(1 - \rho) (and sometimes better) scaling

We consider the FCFS $GI/GI/n$ queue, and prove the first simple and explicit bounds that scale as $\frac{1}{1-\rho}$ (and sometimes better). Here $\rho$ denotes the corresponding traffic intensity. Conceptually, our results can be viewed as a multi-server analogue of Kingman's bound. Our main results are bounds for the tail of the steady-state queue length and the steady-state probability of delay. The strength of our bounds (e.g. in the form of tail decay rate) is a function of how many moments of the inter-arrival and service distributions are assumed finite. More formally, suppose that the inter-arrival and service times (distributed as random variables $A$ and $S$ respectively) have finite $r$th moment for some $r > 2.$ Let $\mu_A$ (respectively $\mu_S$) denote $\frac{1}{\mathbb{E}[A]}$ (respectively $\frac{1}{\mathbb{E}[S]}$). Then our bounds (also for higher moments) are simple and explicit functions of $\mathbb{E}\big[(A \mu_A)^r\big], \mathbb{E}\big[(S \mu_S)^r\big], r$, and $\frac{1}{1-\rho}$ only. Our bounds scale gracefully even when the number of servers grows large and the traffic intensity converges to unity simultaneously, as in the Halfin-Whitt scaling regime. Some of our bounds scale better than $\frac{1}{1-\rho}$ in certain asymptotic regimes. More precisely, they scale as $\frac{1}{1-\rho}$ multiplied by an inverse polynomial in $n(1 - \rho)^2.$ These results formalize the intuition that bounds should be tighter in light traffic as well as certain heavy-traffic regimes (e.g. with $\rho$ fixed and $n$ large). In these same asymptotic regimes we also prove bounds for the tail of the steady-state number in service. Our main proofs proceed by explicitly analyzing the bounding process which arises in the stochastic comparison bounds of amarnik and Goldberg for multi-server queues. Along the way we derive several novel results for suprema of random walks and pooled renewal processes which may be of independent interest. We also prove several additional bounds using drift arguments (which have much smaller pre-factors), and make several conjectures which would imply further related bounds and generalizations

EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON QUEUEING THEORY 2016

International audienceThis booklet contains the proceedings of the second European Conference in Queueing Theory (ECQT) that was held from the 18th to the 20th of July 2016 at the engineering school ENSEEIHT, Toulouse, France. ECQT is a biannual event where scientists and technicians in queueing theory and related areas get together to promote research, encourage interaction and exchange ideas. The spirit of the conference is to be a queueing event organized from within Europe, but open to participants from all over the world. The technical program of the 2016 edition consisted of 112 presentations organized in 29 sessions covering all trends in queueing theory, including the development of the theory, methodology advances, computational aspects and applications. Another exciting feature of ECQT2016 was the institution of the Takács Award for outstanding PhD thesis on "Queueing Theory and its Applications"