Load forecasting on the user‐side by means of computational intelligence algorithms

Nowadays, it would be very difficult to deny the need to prioritize sustainable development through energy efficiency at all consumption levels. In this context, an energy management system (EMS) is a suitable option for continuously improving energy efficiency, particularly on the user side. An EMS is a set of technological tools that manages energy consumption information and allows its analysis. EMS, in combination with information technologies, has given rise to intelligent EMS (iEMS), which, aside from lending support to monitoring and reporting functions as an EMS does, it has the ability to model, forecast, control and diagnose energy consumption in a predictive way. The main objective of an iEMS is to continuously improve energy efficiency (on-line) as automatically as possible. The core of an iEMS is its load modeling forecasting system (LMFS). It takes advantage of historical information on energy consumption and energy-related variables in order to model and forecast load profiles and, if available, generator profiles. These models and forecasts are the main information used for iEMS applications for control and diagnosis. That is why in this thesis we have focused on the study, analysis and development of LMFS on the user side. The fact that the LMFS is applied on the user side to support an iEMS means that specific characteristics are required that in other areas of load forecasting they are not. First of all, the user-side load profiles (LPs) have a higher random behavior than others, as for example, in power system distribution or generation. This makes the modeling and forecasting process more difficult. Second, on the user side --for example an industrial user-- there is a high number and variety of places that can be monitored, modeled and forecasted, as well as their precedence or nature. Thus, on the one hand, an LMFS requires a high degree of autonomy to automatically or autonomously generate the demanded models. And on the other hand, it needs a high level of adaptability in order to be able to model and forecast different types of loads and different types of energies. Therefore, the addressed LMFS are those that do not look only for accuracy, but also adaptability and autonomy. Seeking to achieve these objectives, in this thesis work we have proposed three novel LMFS schemes based on hybrid algorithms from computational intelligence, signal processing and statistical theory. The first of them looked to improve adaptability, keeping in mind the importance of accuracy and autonomy. It was called an evolutionary training algorithm (ETA) and is based on adaptivenetwork-based-fuzzy-inference system (ANFIS) that is trained by a multi-objective genetic algorithm instead of its traditional training algorithm. As a result of this hybrid, the generalization capacity was improved (avoiding overfitting) and an easily adaptable training algorithm for new adaptive networks based on traditional ANFIS was obtained. The second scheme deals with LMF autonomy in order to build models from multiple loads automatically. Similar to the previous proposal, an ANFIS and a MOGA were used. In this case, the MOGA was used to find a near-optimal configuration for the ANFIS instead of training it. The LMFS relies on this configuration to work properly, as well as to maintain accuracy and generalization capabilities. Real data from an industrial scenario were used to test the proposed scheme and the multi-site modeling and self-configuration results were satisfactory. Furthermore, other algorithms were satisfactorily designed and tested for processing raw data in outlier detection and gap padding. The last of the proposed approaches sought to improve accuracy while keeping autonomy and adaptability. It took advantage of dominant patterns (DPs) that have lower time resolution than the target LP, so they are easier to model and forecast. The Hilbert-Huang transform and Hilbert-spectral analysis were used for detecting and selecting the DPs. Those selected were used in a proposed scheme of partial models (PM) based on parallel ANFIS or artificial neural networks (ANN) to extract the information and give it to the main PM. Therefore, LMFS accuracy improved and the user-side LP noising problem was reduced. Additionally, in order to compensate for the added complexity, versions of self-configured sub-LMFS for each PM were used. This point was fundamental since, the better the configuration, the better the accuracy of the model; and subsequently the information provided to the main partial model was that much better. Finally, and to close this thesis, an outlook of trends regarding iEMS and an outline of several hybrid algorithms that are pending study and testing are presented.En el contexto energético actual y particularmente en el lado del usuario, el concepto de sistema de gestión energética (EMS) se presenta como una alternativa apropiada para mejorar continuamente la eficiencia energética. Los EMSs en combinación con las tecnologías informáticas dan origen al concepto de iEMS, que además de soportar las funciones de los EMS, tienen la capacidad de modelar, pronosticar, controlar y supervisar los consumos energéticos. Su principal objetivo es el de realizar una mejora continua, lo más autónoma posible y predictiva de la eficiencia energética. Este tipo de sistemas tienen como núcleo fundamental el sistema de modelado y pronóstico de consumos (Load Modeling and Forecasting System, LMFS). El LMFS está habilitado para pronosticar el comportamiento futuro de cargas y, si es necesario, de generadores. Es sobre estos pronósticos sobre los cuales el iEMS puede realizar sus tareas automáticas y predictivas de optimización y supervisión. Los LMFS en el lado del usuario son el foco de esta tesis. Un LMFS en el lado del usuario, diseñado para soportar un iEMS requiere o demanda ciertas características que en otros contextos no serían tan necesarias. En primera estancia, los perfiles de los usuarios tienen un alto grado de aleatoriedad que los hace más difíciles de pronosticar. Segundo, en el lado del usuario, por ejemplo en la industria, el gran número de puntos a modelar requiere que el LMFS tenga por un lado, un nivel elevado de autonomía para generar de la manera más desatendida posible los modelos. Por otro lado, necesita un nivel elevado de adaptabilidad para que, usando la misma estructura o metodología, pueda modelar diferentes tipos de cargas cuya procedencia pude variar significativamente. Por lo tanto, los sistemas de modelado abordados en esta tesis son aquellos que no solo buscan mejorar la precisión, sino también la adaptabilidad y autonomía. En busca de estos objetivos y soportados principalmente por algoritmos de inteligencia computacional, procesamiento de señales y estadística, hemos propuesto tres algoritmos novedosos para el desarrollo de un LMFS en el lado del usuario. El primero de ellos busca mejorar la adaptabilidad del LMFS manteniendo una buena precisión y capacidad de autonomía. Denominado ETA, consiste del uso de una estructura ANFIS que es entrenada por un algoritmo genético multi objetivo (MOGA). Como resultado de este híbrido, obtenemos un algoritmo con excelentes capacidades de generalización y fácil de adaptar para el entrenamiento y evaluación de nuevas estructuras adaptativas basadas en ANFIS. El segundo de los algoritmos desarrollados aborda la autonomía del LMFS para así poder generar modelos de múltiples cargas. Al igual que en la anterior propuesta usamos un ANFIS y un MOGA, pero esta vez el MOGA en vez de entrenar el ANFIS, se utiliza para encontrar la configuración cuasi-óptima del ANFIS. Encontrar la configuración apropiada de un ANFIS es muy importante para obtener un buen funcionamiento del LMFS en lo que a precisión y generalización respecta. El LMFS propuesto, además de configurar automáticamente el ANFIS, incluyó diversos algoritmos para procesar los datos puros que casi siempre estuvieron contaminados de datos espurios y gaps de información, operando satisfactoriamente en las condiciones de prueba en un escenario real. El tercero y último de los algoritmos buscó mejorar la precisión manteniendo la autonomía y adaptabilidad, aprovechando para ello la existencia de patrones dominantes de más baja resolución temporal que el consumo objetivo, y que son más fáciles de modelar y pronosticar. La metodología desarrollada se basa en la transformada de Hilbert-Huang para detectar y seleccionar tales patrones dominantes. Además, esta metodología define el uso de modelos parciales de los patrones dominantes seleccionados, para mejorar la precisión del LMFS y mitigar el problema de aleatoriedad que afecta a los consumos en el lado del usuario. Adicionalmente, se incorporó el algoritmo de auto configuración que se presentó en la propuesta anterior para hallar la configuración cuasi-óptima de los modelos parciales. Este punto fue crucial puesto que a mejor configuración de los modelos parciales mayor es la mejora en precisión del pronóstico final. Finalmente y para cerrar este trabajo de tesis, se realizó una prospección de las tendencias en cuanto al uso de iEMS y se esbozaron varias propuestas de algoritmos híbridos, cuyo estudio y comprobación se plantea en futuros estudios

Cuckoo search based adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for short-term load forecasting

Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is an essential input for power system operation computations to achieve proper system balancing. General economy and security of power system depend on accurate STLF. The accuracy of forecasting model depends on the number and types of the forecasting variables. Furthermore, a day-ahead hourly-load forecast has to reach the decision makers before the elapse of a pre-set time. Conventional methods used in determining future load demand were not able to explore all the available variables in a particular forecasting region. Moreover, artificial intelligence methods like Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), are associated with computational difficulties, thus influence the speed and accuracy of the model. Therefore, these variables need to be investigated so as to make the forecasting model simple and easy to use. Similarly, the forecasting speed needs to be improved. This thesis presents the development of short-term electric load demand forecasting algorithm, with the aim to improve the forecasting accuracy and speed. It starts with the development of data selection and data processing framework, through the use of correlation analysis, hypothesis test and wavelet transform. Variables of the four seasons in one year were investigated and were classified based on the available weather and historical load data in each season. To reduce the variability in the forecasting data, wavelet transform is used. The whole forecasting algorithm has been developed by integrating Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm with ANFIS to produce CS-ANFIS model. CS was used to improve the forecasting capability and speed of the traditional ANFIS, by replacing the derivative-based gradient descent optimization algorithm with CS in backward pass. Its purpose is to update the antecedent parameters of the traditional ANFIS, through the determination of an optimal value of the error merging between the ANFIS output and targeted output. The whole system is validated by the comparison with an existing ANFIS model, and two other ANFIS models optimized with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-ANFIS) and Genetic Algorithm (GA-ANFIS). The developed CS-ANFIS model proved to be superior to these models in terms of accuracy and forecasting time. A reduction in average mean absolute percentage error of 84.48% for one year forecast is recorded using the developed CS-ANFIS, and 77.32% with the proposed data selection approach. The model was found to forecast the future load demand within an average period of 37 seconds, as compared to the traditional ANFIS which recorded an average forecasting time of 219 seconds. It can therefore, be accepted as a tool for forecasting future energy demand at utility level to improve the reliability and economic operation of the utility

STLF in the user-side for an iEMS based on evolutionary training of adaptive networks

It is a fact that the short-term load forecasting (STLF)in the user side is growing interest. Consequently, intelligent energy management systems (iEMSs) are including this capability in order to take autonomous decisions. In this context, this paper presents a new STLF scheme based on Adaptative Networks Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS). This ANFIS has an exponential output membership functions (e-ANFIS) and has been trained by means of a novel evolutionary training algorithm (ETA). Due to the computational burden required by ETA, parallel computing was used to eliminate this problem especially for embedded applications. This new scheme has been tested with real data from an automotive factory and it shows better results in comparison with typical adaptative network structures (neural network and ANFIS)

STLF in the user-side for an iEMS based on evolutionary training of adaptive networks

It is a fact that the short-term load forecasting (STLF)in the user side is growing interest. Consequently, intelligent energy management systems (iEMSs) are including this capability in order to take autonomous decisions. In this context, this paper presents a new STLF scheme based on Adaptative Networks Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS). This ANFIS has an exponential output membership functions (e-ANFIS) and has been trained by means of a novel evolutionary training algorithm (ETA). Due to the computational burden required by ETA, parallel computing was used to eliminate this problem especially for embedded applications. This new scheme has been tested with real data from an automotive factory and it shows better results in comparison with typical adaptative network structures (neural network and ANFIS).Postprint (published version

STLF in the user-side for an iEMS based on evolutionary training of adaptive networks

It is a fact that the short-term load forecasting (STLF)in the user side is growing interest. Consequently, intelligent energy management systems (iEMSs) are including this capability in order to take autonomous decisions. In this context, this paper presents a new STLF scheme based on Adaptative Networks Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS). This ANFIS has an exponential output membership functions (e-ANFIS) and has been trained by means of a novel evolutionary training algorithm (ETA). Due to the computational burden required by ETA, parallel computing was used to eliminate this problem especially for embedded applications. This new scheme has been tested with real data from an automotive factory and it shows better results in comparison with typical adaptative network structures (neural network and ANFIS)