Non-parametric Estimation of Stochastic Differential Equations with Sparse Gaussian Processes

The application of Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) to the analysis of temporal data has attracted increasing attention, due to their ability to describe complex dynamics with physically interpretable equations. In this paper, we introduce a non-parametric method for estimating the drift and diffusion terms of SDEs from a densely observed discrete time series. The use of Gaussian processes as priors permits working directly in a function-space view and thus the inference takes place directly in this space. To cope with the computational complexity that requires the use of Gaussian processes, a sparse Gaussian process approximation is provided. This approximation permits the efficient computation of predictions for the drift and diffusion terms by using a distribution over a small subset of pseudo-samples. The proposed method has been validated using both simulated data and real data from economy and paleoclimatology. The application of the method to real data demonstrates its ability to capture the behaviour of complex systems

Preconditioning Kernel Matrices

The computational and storage complexity of kernel machines presents the primary barrier to their scaling to large, modern, datasets. A common way to tackle the scalability issue is to use the conjugate gradient algorithm, which relieves the constraints on both storage (the kernel matrix need not be stored) and computation (both stochastic gradients and parallelization can be used). Even so, conjugate gradient is not without its own issues: the conditioning of kernel matrices is often such that conjugate gradients will have poor convergence in practice. Preconditioning is a common approach to alleviating this issue. Here we propose preconditioned conjugate gradients for kernel machines, and develop a broad range of preconditioners particularly useful for kernel matrices. We describe a scalable approach to both solving kernel machines and learning their hyperparameters. We show this approach is exact in the limit of iterations and outperforms state-of-the-art approximations for a given computational budget

A Fusion Framework for Camouflaged Moving Foreground Detection in the Wavelet Domain

Detecting camouflaged moving foreground objects has been known to be difficult due to the similarity between the foreground objects and the background. Conventional methods cannot distinguish the foreground from background due to the small differences between them and thus suffer from under-detection of the camouflaged foreground objects. In this paper, we present a fusion framework to address this problem in the wavelet domain. We first show that the small differences in the image domain can be highlighted in certain wavelet bands. Then the likelihood of each wavelet coefficient being foreground is estimated by formulating foreground and background models for each wavelet band. The proposed framework effectively aggregates the likelihoods from different wavelet bands based on the characteristics of the wavelet transform. Experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method significantly outperformed existing methods in detecting camouflaged foreground objects. Specifically, the average F-measure for the proposed algorithm was 0.87, compared to 0.71 to 0.8 for the other state-of-the-art methods.Comment: 13 pages, accepted by IEEE TI

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Acceleration Using Surrogate Functions with Random Bases

For big data analysis, high computational cost for Bayesian methods often limits their applications in practice. In recent years, there have been many attempts to improve computational efficiency of Bayesian inference. Here we propose an efficient and scalable computational technique for a state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, namely, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). The key idea is to explore and exploit the structure and regularity in parameter space for the underlying probabilistic model to construct an effective approximation of its geometric properties. To this end, we build a surrogate function to approximate the target distribution using properly chosen random bases and an efficient optimization process. The resulting method provides a flexible, scalable, and efficient sampling algorithm, which converges to the correct target distribution. We show that by choosing the basis functions and optimization process differently, our method can be related to other approaches for the construction of surrogate functions such as generalized additive models or Gaussian process models. Experiments based on simulated and real data show that our approach leads to substantially more efficient sampling algorithms compared to existing state-of-the art methods

Security Evaluation of Support Vector Machines in Adversarial Environments

Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are among the most popular classification techniques adopted in security applications like malware detection, intrusion detection, and spam filtering. However, if SVMs are to be incorporated in real-world security systems, they must be able to cope with attack patterns that can either mislead the learning algorithm (poisoning), evade detection (evasion), or gain information about their internal parameters (privacy breaches). The main contributions of this chapter are twofold. First, we introduce a formal general framework for the empirical evaluation of the security of machine-learning systems. Second, according to our framework, we demonstrate the feasibility of evasion, poisoning and privacy attacks against SVMs in real-world security problems. For each attack technique, we evaluate its impact and discuss whether (and how) it can be countered through an adversary-aware design of SVMs. Our experiments are easily reproducible thanks to open-source code that we have made available, together with all the employed datasets, on a public repository.Comment: 47 pages, 9 figures; chapter accepted into book 'Support Vector Machine Applications

Double Normalizing Flows: Flexible Bayesian Gaussian Process ODEs Learning

Recently, Gaussian processes have been utilized to model the vector field of continuous dynamical systems. Bayesian inference for such models \cite{hegde2022variational} has been extensively studied and has been applied in tasks such as time series prediction, providing uncertain estimates. However, previous Gaussian Process Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models may underperform on datasets with non-Gaussian process priors, as their constrained priors and mean-field posteriors may lack flexibility. To address this limitation, we incorporate normalizing flows to reparameterize the vector field of ODEs, resulting in a more flexible and expressive prior distribution. Additionally, due to the analytically tractable probability density functions of normalizing flows, we apply them to the posterior inference of GP ODEs, generating a non-Gaussian posterior. Through these dual applications of normalizing flows, our model improves accuracy and uncertainty estimates for Bayesian Gaussian Process ODEs. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated on simulated dynamical systems and real-world human motion data, including tasks such as time series prediction and missing data recovery. Experimental results indicate that our proposed method effectively captures model uncertainty while improving accuracy

Bayesian Quantile and Expectile Optimisation

Bayesian optimisation is widely used to optimise stochastic black box functions. While most strategies are focused on optimising conditional expectations, a large variety of applications require risk-averse decisions and alternative criteria accounting for the distribution tails need to be considered. In this paper, we propose new variational models for Bayesian quantile and expectile regression that are well-suited for heteroscedastic settings. Our models consist of two latent Gaussian processes accounting respectively for the conditional quantile (or expectile) and variance that are chained through asymmetric likelihood functions. Furthermore, we propose two Bayesian optimisation strategies, either derived from a GP-UCB or Thompson sampling, that are tailored to such models and that can accommodate large batches of points. As illustrated in the experimental section, the proposed approach clearly outperforms the state of the art