Evaluating alternative estimators for optimal order quantities in the newsvendor model with skewed demand

This paper considers the classical Newsvendor model, also known as the Newsboy problem, with the demand to be fully observed and to follow in successive inventory cycles one of the Exponential, Rayleigh, and Log-Normal distributions. For each distribution, appropriate estimators for the optimal order quantity are considered, and their sampling distributions are derived. Then, through Monte-Carlo simulations, we evaluate the performance of corresponding exact and asymptotic confidence intervals for the true optimal order quantity. The case where normality for demand is erroneously assumed is also investigated. Asymptotic confidence intervals produce higher precision, but to attain equality between their actual and nominal confidence level, samples of at least a certain size should be available. This size depends upon the coefficients of variation, skewness and kurtosis. The paper concludes that having available data on the skewed demand for enough inventory cycles enables (i) to trace non-normality, and (ii) to use the right asymptotic confidence intervals in order the estimates for the optimal order quantity to be valid and precise.Inventory Control; Newsboy Problem; Skewed Demand; Exact and Asymptotic Confidence Intervals; Monte-Carlo Simulations

Validity and precision of estimates in the classical newsvendor model with exponential and rayleigh demand

In this paper we consider the classical newsvendor model with profit maximization. When demand is fully observed in each period and follows either the Rayleigh or the exponential distribution, appropriate estimators for the optimal order quantity and the maximum expected profit are established and their distributions are derived. Measuring validity and precision of the corresponding generated confidence intervals by respectively the actual confidence level and the expected half-length divided by the true quantity (optimal order quantity or maximum expected profit), we prove that the intervals are characterized by a very important and useful property. Either referring to confidence intervals for the optimal order quantity or the maximum expected profit, measurements for validity and precision take on exactly the same values. Furthermore, validity and precision do not depend upon the values assigned to the revenue and cost parameters of the model. To offer, therefore, a-priori knowledge for levels of precision and validity, values for the two statistical criteria, that is, the actual confidence level and the relative expected half-length are provided for different combinations of sample size and nominal confidence levels 90%, 95% and 99%. The values for the two criteria have been estimated by developing appropriate Monte-Carlo simulations. For the relative-expected half-length, values are computed also analytically.Inventory Control; Classical newsvendor model; Exponential and Rayleigh Distributions; Confidence Intervals; Monte-Carlo Simulations

A maximum entropy approach to the newsvendor problem with partial information

In this paper, we consider the newsvendor model under partial information, i.e., where the demand distribution D is partly unknown. We focus on the classical case where the retailer only knows the expectation and variance of D. The standard approach is then to determine the order quantity using conservative rules such as minimax regret or Scarf's rule. We compute instead the most likely demand distribution in the sense of maximum entropy. We then compare the performance of the maximum entropy approach with minimax regret and Scarf's rule on large samples of randomly drawn demand distributions. We show that the average performance of the maximum entropy approach is considerably better than either alternative, and more surprisingly, that it is in most cases a better hedge against bad results.Newsvendor model; entropy; partial information

Distributionally robust views on queues and related stochastic models

This dissertation explores distribution-free methods for stochastic models. Traditional approaches operate on the premise of complete knowledge about the probability distributions of the underlying random variables that govern these models. In contrast, this work adopts a distribution-free perspective, assuming only partial knowledge of these distributions, often limited to generalized moment information. Distributionally robust analysis seeks to determine the worst-case model performance. It involves optimization over a set of probability distributions that comply with this partial information, a task tantamount to solving a semiinfinite linear program. To address such an optimization problem, a solution approach based on the concept of weak duality is used. Through the proposed weak-duality argument, distribution-free bounds are derived for a wide range of stochastic models. Further, these bounds are applied to various distributionally robust stochastic programs and used to analyze extremal queueing models—central themes in applied probability and mathematical optimization

Distributionally robust views on queues and related stochastic models

This dissertation explores distribution-free methods for stochastic models. Traditional approaches operate on the premise of complete knowledge about the probability distributions of the underlying random variables that govern these models. In contrast, this work adopts a distribution-free perspective, assuming only partial knowledge of these distributions, often limited to generalized moment information. Distributionally robust analysis seeks to determine the worst-case model performance. It involves optimization over a set of probability distributions that comply with this partial information, a task tantamount to solving a semiinfinite linear program. To address such an optimization problem, a solution approach based on the concept of weak duality is used. Through the proposed weak-duality argument, distribution-free bounds are derived for a wide range of stochastic models. Further, these bounds are applied to various distributionally robust stochastic programs and used to analyze extremal queueing models—central themes in applied probability and mathematical optimization

Dual Market Facility Network Design under Bounded Rationality

A number of markets, geographically separated, with different demand characteristics for different products that share a common component, are analyzed. This common component can either be manufactured locally in each of the markets or transported between the markets to fulfill the demand. However, final assemblies are localized to the respective markets. The decision making challenge is whether to manufacture the common component centrally or locally. To formulate the underlying setting, a newsvendor modeling based approach is considered. The developed model is solved using Frank-Wolfe linearization technique along with Benders’ decomposition method. Further, the propensity of decision makers in each market to make suboptimal decisions leading to bounded rationality is considered. The results obtained for both the cases are compared