The impact of macroeconomic leading indicators on inventory management

Forecasting tactical sales is important for long term decisions such as procurement and informing lower level inventory management decisions. Macroeconomic indicators have been shown to improve the forecast accuracy at tactical level, as these indicators can provide early warnings of changing markets while at the same time tactical sales are sufficiently aggregated to facilitate the identification of useful leading indicators. Past research has shown that we can achieve significant gains by incorporating such information. However, at lower levels, that inventory decisions are taken, this is often not feasible due to the level of noise in the data. To take advantage of macroeconomic leading indicators at this level we need to translate the tactical forecasts into operational level ones. In this research we investigate how to best assimilate top level forecasts that incorporate such exogenous information with bottom level (at Stock Keeping Unit level) extrapolative forecasts. The aim is to demonstrate whether incorporating these variables has a positive impact on bottom level planning and eventually inventory levels. We construct appropriate hierarchies of sales and use that structure to reconcile the forecasts, and in turn the different available information, across levels. We are interested both at the point forecast and the prediction intervals, as the latter inform safety stock decisions. Therefore the contribution of this research is twofold. We investigate the usefulness of macroeconomic leading indicators for SKU level forecasts and alternative ways to estimate the variance of hierarchically reconciled forecasts. We provide evidence using a real case study

Understanding and improving the perception of a hospital ward soundscape

The various aspects of hospital environments have been shown to affect individuals psychologically and physiologically. One aspect of this, sound, has been thoroughly documented through acoustic measurements along with the potential adverse effects high sound level has on patients and nurses. Yet within hospitals, the character of the sound – the soundscape or the auditory landscape – is often overlooked in favour of this focus on sound level. This project has led to an improved understanding of the character and perception of hospital sounds using a triangulation of methods, with the intention of contributing to knowledge on how to improving the soundscape. Firstly, an interview study with patients and nurses within a cardiothoracic (CT) ward at a UK hospital was carried out to understand perceptions of, and thoughts towards, the soundscape. This led to the development of a conceptual model linking the relationships between various concepts and components of perception thereby mapping the perception of the soundscape and the feelings it evoked. A key aspect to perception – the notion of coping through habituating to sounds, became the foundation for subsequent work testing positive interventions. These complex feelings elicited by the soundscape were then reduced into a twodimensional perceptual space, extracted from a listening evaluation using Principal Component Analysis. Labelled ‘Relaxation’ and ‘Interest & Understanding’, these axies can represent the emotional-cognitive response stimulated by the CT ward sounds. Finally, potentially positive interventions were assessed using listening evaluations with participants rating additional natural and steady state sounds, along with a cognitive intervention of sound source information (SSI). It was found that the interventions resulted in a small (ƞ2=0.05) but significant effect (p=.001) on the ‘Relaxation’ response. Natural sounds were most effective, with a less conclusive but still significant effect present for steady state sounds and SSI. The ‘Interest & Understanding’ dimension was non-significantly affected. Exploring this further, a between groups in-situ study assessed the benefit of SSI. The first group received SSI, the second received none. It was found that SSI had a small to medium significant effect (r=0.26-0.31, p=<.05) on ‘Interest & Understanding’ but not ‘Relaxation’. The project successfully developed a new way of assessing the perception of hospital sounds in a perceptual space. Using this approach it was concluded that natural sounds (here, the sounds of birdsong and a stream) provide a consistent way to improve the soundscape. However, a new approach of using SSI was successfully tested and was supported by a theoretical underpinning of cognitive reappraisal. Importantly, this offers an easier way to manipulate perception through potentially a reappraisal of the soundscape. Therefore, it was also concluded from the new findings and new theory that SSI could be used to create a positive response from people within hospital ward environments

Advances in Modeling of Fluid Dynamics

This book contains twelve chapters detailing significant advances and applications in fluid dynamics modeling with focus on biomedical, bioengineering, chemical, civil and environmental engineering, aeronautics, astronautics, and automotive. We hope this book can be a useful resource to scientists and engineers who are interested in fundamentals and applications of fluid dynamics

Advances in Human-Robot Interaction

Rapid advances in the field of robotics have made it possible to use robots not just in industrial automation but also in entertainment, rehabilitation, and home service. Since robots will likely affect many aspects of human existence, fundamental questions of human-robot interaction must be formulated and, if at all possible, resolved. Some of these questions are addressed in this collection of papers by leading HRI researchers

Aeronautical engineering: A cumulative index to a continuing bibliography (supplement 274)

This publication is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in supplements 262 through 273 of Aeronautical Engineering: A Continuing Bibliography. The bibliographic series is compiled through the cooperative efforts of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Seven indexes are included: subject, personal author, corporate source, foreign technology, contract number, report number, and accession number

Critical Thinking Skills Profile of High School Students In Learning Science-Physics

This study aims to describe Critical Thinking Skills high school students in the city of Makassar. To achieve this goal, the researchers conducted an analysis of student test results of 200 people scattered in six schools in the city of Makassar. The results of the quantitative descriptive analysis of the data found that the average value of students doing the interpretation, analysis, and inference in a row by 1.53, 1.15, and 1.52. This value is still very low when compared with the maximum value that may be obtained by students, that is equal to 10.00. This shows that the critical thinking skills of high school students are still very low. One fact Competency Standards science subjects-Physics is demonstrating the ability to think logically, critically, and creatively with the guidance of teachers and demonstrate the ability to solve simple problems in daily life. In fact, according to Michael Scriven stated that the main task of education is to train students and or students to think critically because of the demands of work in the global economy, the survival of a democratic and personal decisions and decisions in an increasingly complex society needs people who can think well and make judgments good. Therefore, the need for teachers in the learning device scenario such as: driving question or problem, authentic Investigation: Science Processes

Fourth Annual Workshop on Space Operations Applications and Research (SOAR 90)

The proceedings of the SOAR workshop are presented. The technical areas included are as follows: Automation and Robotics; Environmental Interactions; Human Factors; Intelligent Systems; and Life Sciences. NASA and Air Force programmatic overviews and panel sessions were also held in each technical area