Fuzzy rule-based system applied to risk estimation of cardiovascular patients

Cardiovascular decision support is one area of increasing research interest. On-going collaborations between clinicians and computer scientists are looking at the application of knowledge discovery in databases to the area of patient diagnosis, based on clinical records. A fuzzy rule-based system for risk estimation of cardiovascular patients is proposed. It uses a group of fuzzy rules as a knowledge representation about data pertaining to cardiovascular patients. Several algorithms for the discovery of an easily readable and understandable group of fuzzy rules are formalized and analysed. The accuracy of risk estimation and the interpretability of fuzzy rules are discussed. Our study shows, in comparison to other algorithms used in knowledge discovery, that classifcation with a group of fuzzy rules is a useful technique for risk estimation of cardiovascular patients. © 2013 Old City Publishing, Inc

Real-Time Physiological Simulation and Modeling toward Dependable Patient Monitoring Systems

We present a novel approach to describe dependability measures for intelligent patient monitoring devices. The strategy is based on using a combination of methods from system theory and real-time physiological simulations. For the first time not only the technical device but also the patient is taken into consideration. Including the patient requires prediction of physiology which is achieved by a real-time physiological simulation in a continuous time domain, whereby one of the main ingredients is a temporal reasoning element. The quality of the reasoning is expressed by a dependability analysis strategy. Thereby, anomalies are expressed as differences between simulation and real world data. Deviations are detected for current and they are forecasted for future points in time and can express critical situations. By this method, patient specific differences in terms of physiological reactions are described, allowing early detection of critical states

DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model for Predictive Medicine

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors in space, models patient health state trajectories through explicit memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle irregular timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory cells. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden -- diabetes and mental health -- the results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.Comment: Accepted at JBI under the new name: "Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach