Training of neural network by using ABC algorithm, PSO and FPA for prediction of gold price

Altın fiyatının tahmini için kullanılan yapay zekâ tekniklerinden biri yapay sinir ağları (YSA)’dır. YSA ile başarılı modeller oluşturmak için başarılı bir eğitim süreci şarttır. Başarılı bir eğitim süreci için başarılı bir eğitim algoritması gereklidir. Bu çalışmada YSA eğitimi için popüler meta-sezgisel algoritmalar olan yapay arı kolonisi (ABC) algoritması, parçacık sürü optimizasyonu (PSO) ve çiçek tozlaşma algoritması (FPA) kullanılmıştır. Ocak 2022 ile Haziran 2022 arasındaki 6 aylık altın fiyatları kullanılmaktadır. Altın verisinin zaman serisi 2 girdiden oluşan veri setlerine dönüştürülmüştür. Altın fiyatının günlük tahmini için ilgili meta sezgisel algoritmalar kullanılarak bu veri seti üzerinde YSA eğitimi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Verilerin %80'i eğitim sürecinde kullanılmıştır. Kalan veriler test sürecine tahsis edilmiştir. Hata ölçüsü olarak ortalama karesel hata (MSE) kullanıldı. Altın fiyatını etkin bir şekilde tahmin edebilmek için farklı ağ yapıları denenmiştir. Altın fiyatının tahmini için ABC algoritması, PSO ve FPA’nın performansları karşılaştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın sınırlılıkları dahilinde ABC algoritmasının performansının PSO ve FPA'ya göre daha etkili olduğu görülmüştür.One of the artificial intelligence techniques used for prediction of gold price is artificial neural networks (ANNs). A successful training process is essential in order to create successful models with an ANN. A successful training algorithm is required for a successful training process. In this study, artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm, particle swarm optimization (PSO) and flower pollination algorithm (FPA), which are popular meta-heuristic algorithms, are used for ANN training. 6 months gold prices between January 2022 and June 2022 are utilized. The time series of gold data was transformed into data sets consisting of 2 inputs.ANN training was performed on these this dataset by using related meta-heuristic algorithms for daily forecast of gold price. 80% of the data was used in the training process. The remaining data was allocated to the testing process. The mean squared error (MSE) was used as the error metric. Different network structures were tried to predict the gold price effectively. The performances of ABC algorithm, PSO and FPA are compared for prediction of gold price. Within the limitations of the study, it was seen that the performance of ABC algorithm was more effective than PSO and FPA

An Improved Artificial Colony Algorithm Model for Forecasting Chinese Electricity Consumption and Analyzing Effect Mechanism

Electricity consumption forecast is perceived to be a growing hot topic in such a situation that China’s economy has entered a period of new normal and the demand of electric power has slowed down. Therefore, exploring Chinese electricity consumption influence mechanism and forecasting electricity consumption are crucial to formulate electrical energy plan scientifically and guarantee the sustainable economic and social development. Research has identified medium and long term electricity consumption forecast as a difficult study influenced by various factors. This paper proposed an improved Artificial Bee Colony (ABC) algorithm which combined with multivariate linear regression (MLR) for exploring the influencing mechanism of various factors on Chinese electricity consumption and forecasting electricity consumption in the future. The results indicated that the improved ABC algorithm in view of the various factors is superior to traditional models just considering unilateralism in accuracy and persuasion. The overall findings cast light on this model which provides a new scientific and effective way to forecast the medium and long term electricity consumption

A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Energy Time Series Forecasting

Data mining has become an essential tool during the last decade to analyze large sets of data. The variety of techniques it includes and the successful results obtained in many application fields, make this family of approaches powerful and widely used. In particular, this work explores the application of these techniques to time series forecasting. Although classical statistical-based methods provides reasonably good results, the result of the application of data mining outperforms those of classical ones. Hence, this work faces two main challenges: (i) to provide a compact mathematical formulation of the mainly used techniques; (ii) to review the latest works of time series forecasting and, as case study, those related to electricity price and demand markets.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TIN2014-55894-C2-RJunta de Andalucía P12- TIC-1728Universidad Pablo de Olavide APPB81309

A Review of Electricity Demand Forecasting in Low and Middle Income Countries: The Demand Determinants and Horizons

With the globally increasing electricity demand, its related uncertainties are on the rise as well. Therefore, a deeper insight of load forecasting techniques for projecting future electricity demands becomes imperative for business entities and policy makers. The electricity demand is governed by a set of different variables or “electricity demand determinants”. These demand determinants depend on forecasting horizons (long term, medium term, and short term), the load aggregation level, climate, and socio-economic activities. In this paper, a review of different electricity demand forecasting methodologies is provided in the context of a group of low and middle income countries. The article presents a comprehensive literature review by tabulating the different demand determinants used in different countries and forecasting the trends and techniques used in these countries. A comparative review of these forecasting methodologies over different time horizons reveals that the time series modeling approach has been extensively used while forecasting for long and medium terms. For short term forecasts, artificial intelligence-based techniques remain prevalent in the literature. Furthermore, a comparative analysis of the demand determinants in these countries indicates a frequent use of determinants like the population, GDP, weather, and load data over different time horizons. Following the analysis, potential research gaps are identified, and recommendations are provided, accordingly

An Adaptive Fuzzy Symbiotic Organisms Search Algorithm and Its Applications

This paper discusses the development of a Symbiotic Organisms Search Algorithm (SOS) variant, called Adaptive Fuzzy SOS (FSOS). Like SOS, FSOS exploits three types of symbiosis operators namely mutualism, commensalism, and parasitism in order to undertake the search process. Unlike SOS, FSOS is able to adaptively select a single or any combination of mutualism, commensalism, and parasitism update operator(s) as the search progresses based on the current search status controlled by their individual probabilities via the fuzzy decision-making. To validate its performance, we have evaluated FSOS to solve 23 benchmark functions and take a t-way test generation as our case study. Experimental results demonstrate that FSOS exhibits competitive performance against its predecessor (SOS) and other competing metaheuristic algorithms

Improving the sustainability of coal SC in both developed and developing countries by incorporating extended exergy accounting and different carbon reduction policies

In the age of Industry 4.0 and global warming, it is inevitable for decision-makers to change the way they view the coal supply chain (SC). In nature, energy is the currency, and nature is the source of energy for humankind. Coal is one of the most important sources of energy which provides much-needed electricity, as well as steel and cement production. This manuscript-based PhD thesis examines the coal SC network as well as the four carbon reduction strategies and plans to develop a comprehensive model for sustainable design. Thus, the Extended Exergy Accounting (EEA) method is incorporated into a coal SC under economic order quantity (EOQ) and economic production quantity (EPQs) in an uncertain environment. Using a real case study in coal SC in Iran, four carbon reduction policies such as carbon tax (Chapter 5), carbon trade (Chapter 6), carbon cap (Chapter 7), and carbon offset (Chapter 8) are examined. Additionally, all carbon policies are compared for sustainable performance of coal SCs in some developed and developing countries (the USA, China, India, Germany, Canada, Australia, etc.) with the world's most significant coal consumption. The objective function of the four optimization models under each carbon policy is to minimize the total exergy (in Joules as opposed to Dollars/Euros) of the coal SC in each country. The models have been solved using three recent metaheuristic algorithms, including Ant lion optimizer (ALO), Lion optimization algorithm (LOA), and Whale optimization algorithm (WOA), as well as three popular ones, such as Genetic algorithm (GA), Ant colony optimization (ACO), and Simulated annealing (SA), are suggested to determine a near-optimal solution to an exergy fuzzy nonlinear integer-programming (EFNIP). Moreover, the proposed metaheuristic algorithms are validated by using an exact method (by GAMS software) in small-size test problems. Finally, through a sensitivity analysis, this dissertation compares the effects of applying different percentages of exergy parameters (capital, labor, and environmental remediation) to coal SC models in each country. Using this approach, we can determine the best carbon reduction policy and exergy percentage that leads to the most sustainable performance (the lowest total exergy per Joule). The findings of this study may enhance the related research of sustainability assessment of SC as well as assist coal enterprises in making logical and measurable decisions

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio