Temporospatial Context-Aware Vehicular Crash Risk Prediction

With the demand for more vehicles increasing, road safety is becoming a growing concern. Traffic collisions take many lives and cost billions of dollars in losses. This explains the growing interest of governments, academic institutions and companies in road safety. The vastness and availability of road accident data has provided new opportunities for gaining a better understanding of accident risk factors and for developing more effective accident prediction and prevention regimes. Much of the empirical research on road safety and accident analysis utilizes statistical models which capture limited aspects of crashes. On the other hand, data mining has recently gained interest as a reliable approach for investigating road-accident data and for providing predictive insights. While some risk factors contribute more frequently in the occurrence of a road accident, the importance of driver behavior, temporospatial factors, and real-time traffic dynamics have been underestimated. This study proposes a framework for predicting crash risk based on historical accident data. The proposed framework incorporates machine learning and data analytics techniques to identify driving patterns and other risk factors associated with potential vehicle crashes. These techniques include clustering, association rule mining, information fusion, and Bayesian networks. Swarm intelligence based association rule mining is employed to uncover the underlying relationships and dependencies in collision databases. Data segmentation methods are employed to eliminate the effect of dependent variables. Extracted rules can be used along with real-time mobility to predict crashes and their severity in real-time. The national collision database of Canada (NCDB) is used in this research to generate association rules with crash risk oriented subsequents, and to compare the performance of the swarm intelligence based approach with that of other association rule miners. Many industry-demanding datasets, including road-accident datasets, are deficient in descriptive factors. This is a significant barrier for uncovering meaningful risk factor relationships. To resolve this issue, this study proposes a knwoledgebase approximation framework to enhance the crash risk analysis by integrating pieces of evidence discovered from disparate datasets capturing different aspects of mobility. Dempster-Shafer theory is utilized as a key element of this knowledgebase approximation. This method can integrate association rules with acceptable accuracy under certain circumstances that are discussed in this thesis. The proposed framework is tested on the lymphography dataset and the road-accident database of the Great Britain. The derived insights are then used as the basis for constructing a Bayesian network that can estimate crash likelihood and risk levels so as to warn drivers and prevent accidents in real-time. This Bayesian network approach offers a way to implement a naturalistic driving analysis process for predicting traffic collision risk based on the findings from the data-driven model. A traffic incident detection and localization method is also proposed as a component of the risk analysis model. Detecting and localizing traffic incidents enables timely response to accidents and facilitates effective and efficient traffic flow management. The results obtained from the experimental work conducted on this component is indicative of the capability of our Dempster-Shafer data-fusion-based incident detection method in overcoming the challenges arising from erroneous and noisy sensor readings

Pre-crash scenarios at road junctions: a clustering method for car crash data

Given the recent advancements in autonomous driving functions, one of the main challenges is safe and efficient operation in complex traffic situations such as road junctions. There is a need for comprehensive testing, either in virtual simulation environments or on real-world test tracks. This paper presents a novel data analysis method including the preparation, analysis and visualization of car crash data, to identify the critical pre-crash scenarios at T- and four-legged junctions as a basis for testing the safety of automated driving systems. The presented method employs k-medoids to cluster historical junction crash data into distinct partitions and then applies the association rules algorithm to each cluster to specify the driving scenarios in more detail. The dataset used consists of 1056 junction crashes in the UK, which were exported from the in-depth “On-the-Spot” database. The study resulted in thirteen crash clusters for T-junctions, and six crash clusters for crossroads. Association rules revealed common crash characteristics, which were the basis for the scenario descriptions. The results support existing findings on road junction accidents and provide benchmark situations for safety performance tests in order to reduce the possible number parameter combinations

Towards Social Autonomous Vehicles: Efficient Collision Avoidance Scheme Using Richardson's Arms Race Model

Background Road collisions and casualties pose a serious threat to commuters around the globe. Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) aim to make the use of technology to reduce the road accidents. However, the most of research work in the context of collision avoidance has been performed to address, separately, the rear end, front end and lateral collisions in less congested and with high inter-vehicular distances. Purpose The goal of this paper is to introduce the concept of a social agent, which interact with other AVs in social manners like humans are social having the capability of predicting intentions, i.e. mentalizing and copying the actions of each other, i.e. mirroring. The proposed social agent is based on a human-brain inspired mentalizing and mirroring capabilities and has been modelled for collision detection and avoidance under congested urban road traffic. Method We designed our social agent having the capabilities of mentalizing and mirroring and for this purpose we utilized Exploratory Agent Based Modeling (EABM) level of Cognitive Agent Based Computing (CABC) framework proposed by Niazi and Hussain. Results Our simulation and practical experiments reveal that by embedding Richardson's arms race model within AVs, collisions can be avoided while travelling on congested urban roads in a flock like topologies. The performance of the proposed social agent has been compared at two different levels.Comment: 48 pages, 21 figure

Safety-critical scenarios and virtual testing procedures for automated cars at road intersections

This thesis addresses the problem of road intersection safety with regard to a mixed population of automated vehicles and non-automated road users. The work derives and evaluates safety-critical scenarios at road junctions, which can pose a particular safety problem involving automated cars. A simulation and evaluation framework for car-to-car accidents is presented and demonstrated, which allows examining the safety performance of automated driving systems within those scenarios. Given the recent advancements in automated driving functions, one of the main challenges is safe and efficient operation in complex traffic situations such as road junctions. There is a need for comprehensive testing, either in virtual testing environments or on real-world test tracks. Since it is unrealistic to cover all possible combinations of traffic situations and environment conditions, the challenge is to find the key driving situations to be evaluated at junctions. Against this background, a novel method to derive critical pre-crash scenarios from historical car accident data is presented. It employs k-medoids to cluster historical junction crash data into distinct partitions and then applies the association rules algorithm to each cluster to specify the driving scenarios in more detail. The dataset used consists of 1,056 junction crashes in the UK, which were exported from the in-depth On-the-Spot database. The study resulted in thirteen crash clusters for T-junctions, and six crash clusters for crossroads. Association rules revealed common crash characteristics, which were the basis for the scenario descriptions. As a follow-up to the scenario generation, the thesis further presents a novel, modular framework to transfer the derived collision scenarios to a sub-microscopic traffic simulation environment. The software CarMaker is used with MATLAB/Simulink to simulate realistic models of vehicles, sensors and road environments and is combined with an advanced Monte Carlo method to obtain a representative set of parameter combinations. The analysis of different safety performance indicators computed from the simulation outputs reveals collision and near-miss probabilities for selected scenarios. The usefulness and applicability of the simulation and evaluation framework is demonstrated for a selected junction scenario, where the safety performance of different in-vehicle collision avoidance systems is studied. The results show that the number of collisions and conflicts were reduced to a tenth when adding a crossing and turning assistant to a basic forward collision avoidance system. Due to its modular architecture, the presented framework can be adapted to the individual needs of future users and may be enhanced with customised simulation models. Ultimately, the thesis leads to more efficient workflows when virtually testing automated driving at intersections, as a complement to field operational tests on public roads

A log mining approach for process monitoring in SCADA

SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems are used for controlling and monitoring industrial processes. We propose a methodology to systematically identify potential process-related threats in SCADA. Process-related threats take place when an attacker gains user access rights and performs actions, which look legitimate, but which are intended to disrupt the SCADA process. To detect such threats, we propose a semi-automated approach of log processing. We conduct experiments on a real-life water treatment facility. A preliminary case study suggests that our approach is effective in detecting anomalous events that might alter the regular process workflow

Towards Safe Autonomous Driving

Autonomous driving is expected to bring several benefits, in particular regarding safety. This thesis aim to contribute towards two questions concerning safety: "What is the potential safety benefit of autonomous driving?\u27\u27 and "How can we ensure safe operation of such vehicles?\u27\u27.In the first part of the thesis, methods for evaluating the safety benefit are investigated. In particular predictive effectiveness evaluation based on resimulation of accident data, using models to estimate new outcomes in case the safety system had been available. To illustrate the methodology, four examples of gradual increase in model complexity are presented. First, an Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) system using a sensor model, decision algorithm, vehicle dynamics model and regression based injury model. This is extended in a Forward Collision Warning (FCW) system which additionally requires a driver model to simulate driver reactions. The third example shows how an active, AEB, and passive, airbag, system can be combined.\ua0Finally the fourth example combines several systems to emulate a highly automated vehicle. Apart from predicting the real world performance, this analysis also identifies current safety gaps by studying the residual of the accident set.Safety benefit estimation using accident data gives an evaluation on the current accident distributions, however, the systems may introduce new accidents if not operated as intended. In the second part of the thesis, safety verification processes with the intent of preventing unsafe operation, are presented. This is particularly challenging for machine learning based components, such as neural networks. In this case, traditional analytical verification approaches are\ua0difficult to apply due to the non-linearity and high dimensional parameter spaces. Similarly, statistical safety arguments often require unfeasible amounts of annotated validation data. Instead, monitor functions are investigated as a complement to increase safety during operation. The method presented estimates the similarity of the driving environment, compared to the training data, where decisions inferred from novel data can be considered less reliable.\ua0Although not providing a complete safety assurance, the methodology show promising initial results for increasing safety. In addition, it could potentially be used to collect novel data and reduce redundancy in training data

Measurable Safety of Automated Driving Functions in Commercial Motor Vehicles

With the further development of automated driving, the functional performance increases resulting in the need for new and comprehensive testing concepts. This doctoral work aims to enable the transition from quantitative mileage to qualitative test coverage by aggregating the results of both knowledge-based and data-driven test platforms. The validity of the test domain can be extended cost-effectively throughout the software development process to achieve meaningful test termination criteria