Leveraging Sociological Models for Predictive Analytics

Abstract—There is considerable interest in developing techniques for predicting human behavior, for instance to enable emerging contentious situations to be forecast or the nature of ongoing but “hidden ” activities to be inferred. A promising approach to this problem is to identify and collect appropriate empirical data and then apply machine learning methods to these data to generate the predictions. This paper shows the performance of such learning algorithms often can be improved substantially by leveraging sociological models in their development and implementation. In particular, we demonstrate that sociologically-grounded learning algorithms outperform gold-standard methods in three important and challenging tasks: 1.) inferring the (unobserved) nature of relationships in adversarial social networks, 2.) predicting whether nascent social diffusion events will “go viral”, and 3.) anticipating and defending future actions of opponents in adversarial settings. Significantly, the new algorithms perform well even when there is limited data available for their training and execution. Keywords—predictive analysis, sociological models, social networks, empirical analysis, machine learning. I

Multi-user resource-sharing problem for the Internet

In this thesis we study a series of multi-user resource-sharing problems for the Internet, which involve distribution of a common resource among participants of multi-user systems (servers or networks). We study concurrently accessible resources, which for end-users may be exclusively accessible or non-exclusively. For all kinds we suggest a separate algorithm or a modification of common reputation scheme. Every algorithm or method is studied from different perspectives: optimality of protocols, selfishness of end users, fairness of the protocol for end users. On the one hand the multifaceted analysis allows us to select the most suited protocols among a set of various available ones based on trade-offs of optima criteria. On the other hand, the future Internet predictions dictate new rules for the optimality we should take into account and new properties of the networks that cannot be neglected anymore. In this thesis we have studied new protocols for such resource-sharing problems as the backoff protocol, defense mechanisms against Denial-of-Service, fairness and confidentiality for users in overlay networks. For backoff protocol we present analysis of a general backoff scheme, where an optimization is applied to a general-view backoff function. It leads to an optimality condition for backoff protocols in both slot times and continuous time models. Additionally we present an extension for the backoff scheme in order to achieve fairness for the participants in an unfair environment, such as wireless signal strengths. Finally, for the backoff algorithm we suggest a reputation scheme that deals with misbehaving nodes. For the next problem -- denial-of-service attacks, we suggest two schemes that deal with the malicious behavior for two conditions: forged identities and unspoofed identities. For the first one we suggest a novel most-knocked-first-served algorithm, while for the latter we apply a reputation mechanism in order to restrict resource access for misbehaving nodes. Finally, we study the reputation scheme for the overlays and peer-to-peer networks, where resource is not placed on a common station, but spread across the network. The theoretical analysis suggests what behavior will be selected by the end station under such a reputation mechanism.Tässä väitöskirjassa tutkimme useita Internetin resurssienjako-ongelmia, jotka liittyvät yhteisten resurssien käyttöön ja jakamiseen monen käyttäjän järjestelmissä. Tutkimme rinnakkain käytettäviä resursseja, jotka voidaan antaa käyttäjille omaan tai jaettuun käyttöön. Ratkaisuna ehdotamme joko uutta algoritmia tai muutoksia olemassaoleviin tunnettuihin mainejärjestelmiin. Kaikkia algoritmeja tutkitaan useammasta näkökulmasta: protokollien optimaalisuus, käyttäjien itsekkyys, protokollan reiluus käytäjiä kohtaan. Tämä monikantainen analyysi mahdollistaa sopivimman protokollan valinnan, ottaen huomioon erilaiset optimointikriteerit. Toisaalta, tulevaisuuden verkkoratkaisut määrittelevät uusia optimointisääntöjä, sekä verkkojen uusia ominaisuuksia, jotka molemmat pitää ottaa tulevaisuudessa huomioon

Achieving network resiliency using sound theoretical and practical methods

Computer networks have revolutionized the life of every citizen in our modern intercon- nected society. The impact of networked systems spans every aspect of our lives, from financial transactions to healthcare and critical services, making these systems an attractive target for malicious entities that aim to make financial or political profit. Specifically, the past decade has witnessed an astounding increase in the number and complexity of sophisti- cated and targeted attacks, known as advanced persistent threats (APT). Those attacks led to a paradigm shift in the security and reliability communities’ perspective on system design; researchers and government agencies accepted the inevitability of incidents and malicious attacks, and marshaled their efforts into the design of resilient systems. Rather than focusing solely on preventing failures and attacks, resilient systems are able to maintain an acceptable level of operation in the presence of such incidents, and then recover gracefully into normal operation. Alongside prevention, resilient system design focuses on incident detection as well as timely response. Unfortunately, the resiliency efforts of research and industry experts have been hindered by an apparent schism between theory and practice, which allows attackers to maintain the upper hand advantage. This lack of compatibility between the theory and practice of system design is attributed to the following challenges. First, theoreticians often make impractical and unjustifiable assumptions that allow for mathematical tractability while sacrificing accuracy. Second, the security and reliability communities often lack clear definitions of success criteria when comparing different system models and designs. Third, system designers often make implicit or unstated assumptions to favor practicality and ease of design. Finally, resilient systems are tested in private and isolated environments where validation and reproducibility of the results are not publicly accessible. In this thesis, we set about showing that the proper synergy between theoretical anal- ysis and practical design can enhance the resiliency of networked systems. We illustrate the benefits of this synergy by presenting resiliency approaches that target the inter- and intra-networking levels. At the inter-networking level, we present CPuzzle as a means to protect the transport control protocol (TCP) connection establishment channel from state- exhaustion distributed denial of service attacks (DDoS). CPuzzle leverages client puzzles to limit the rate at which misbehaving users can establish TCP connections. We modeled the problem of determining the puzzle difficulty as a Stackleberg game and solve for the equilibrium strategy that balances the users’ utilizes against CPuzzle’s resilience capabilities. Furthermore, to handle volumetric DDoS attacks, we extend CPuzzle and implement Midgard, a cooperative approach that involves end-users in the process of tolerating and neutralizing DDoS attacks. Midgard is a middlebox that resides at the edge of an Internet service provider’s network and uses client puzzles at the IP level to allocate bandwidth to its users. At the intra-networking level, we present sShield, a game-theoretic network response engine that manipulates a network’s connectivity in response to an attacker who is moving laterally to compromise a high-value asset. To implement such decision making algorithms, we leverage the recent advances in software-defined networking (SDN) to collect logs and security alerts about the network and implement response actions. However, the programma- bility offered by SDN comes with an increased chance for design-time bugs that can have drastic consequences on the reliability and security of a networked system. We therefore introduce BiFrost, an open-source tool that aims to verify safety and security proper- ties about data-plane programs. BiFrost translates data-plane programs into functionally equivalent sequential circuits, and then uses well-established hardware reduction, abstrac- tion, and verification techniques to establish correctness proofs about data-plane programs. By focusing on those four key efforts, CPuzzle, Midgard, sShield, and BiFrost, we believe that this work illustrates the benefits that the synergy between theory and practice can bring into the world of resilient system design. This thesis is an attempt to pave the way for further cooperation and coordination between theoreticians and practitioners, in the hope of designing resilient networked systems

Game-Theoretic and Machine-Learning Techniques for Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience in Smart Grid

The smart grid is the next-generation electrical infrastructure utilizing Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), whose architecture is evolving from a utility-centric structure to a distributed Cyber-Physical System (CPS) integrated with a large-scale of renewable energy resources. However, meeting reliability objectives in the smart grid becomes increasingly challenging owing to the high penetration of renewable resources and changing weather conditions. Moreover, the cyber-physical attack targeted at the smart grid has become a major threat because millions of electronic devices interconnected via communication networks expose unprecedented vulnerabilities, thereby increasing the potential attack surface. This dissertation is aimed at developing novel game-theoretic and machine-learning techniques for addressing the reliability and security issues residing at multiple layers of the smart grid, including power distribution system reliability forecasting, risk assessment of cyber-physical attacks targeted at the grid, and cyber attack detection in the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and renewable resources. This dissertation first comprehensively investigates the combined effect of various weather parameters on the reliability performance of the smart grid, and proposes a multilayer perceptron (MLP)-based framework to forecast the daily number of power interruptions in the distribution system using time series of common weather data. Regarding evaluating the risk of cyber-physical attacks faced by the smart grid, a stochastic budget allocation game is proposed to analyze the strategic interactions between a malicious attacker and the grid defender. A reinforcement learning algorithm is developed to enable the two players to reach a game equilibrium, where the optimal budget allocation strategies of the two players, in terms of attacking/protecting the critical elements of the grid, can be obtained. In addition, the risk of the cyber-physical attack can be derived based on the successful attack probability to various grid elements. Furthermore, this dissertation develops a multimodal data-driven framework for the cyber attack detection in the power distribution system integrated with renewable resources. This approach introduces the spare feature learning into an ensemble classifier for improving the detection efficiency, and implements the spatiotemporal correlation analysis for differentiating the attacked renewable energy measurements from fault scenarios. Numerical results based on the IEEE 34-bus system show that the proposed framework achieves the most accurate detection of cyber attacks reported in the literature. To address the electricity theft in the AMI, a Distributed Intelligent Framework for Electricity Theft Detection (DIFETD) is proposed, which is equipped with Benford’s analysis for initial diagnostics on large smart meter data. A Stackelberg game between utility and multiple electricity thieves is then formulated to model the electricity theft actions. Finally, a Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) is utilized to detect potentially fraudulent meters

Self Organized Multi Agent Swarms (SOMAS) for Network Security Control

Computer network security is a very serious concern in many commercial, industrial, and military environments. This paper proposes a new computer network security approach defined by self-organized agent swarms (SOMAS) which provides a novel computer network security management framework based upon desired overall system behaviors. The SOMAS structure evolves based upon the partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) formal model and the more complex Interactive-POMDP and Decentralized-POMDP models, which are augmented with a new F(*-POMDP) model. Example swarm specific and network based behaviors are formalized and simulated. This paper illustrates through various statistical testing techniques, the significance of this proposed SOMAS architecture, and the effectiveness of self-organization and entangled hierarchies

Cyber Security

This open access book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 16th International Annual Conference on Cyber Security, CNCERT 2020, held in Beijing, China, in August 2020. The 17 papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 58 submissions. The papers are organized according to the following topical sections: access control; cryptography; denial-of-service attacks; hardware security implementation; intrusion/anomaly detection and malware mitigation; social network security and privacy; systems security

Contribuciones a la Seguridad del Aprendizaje Automático

Tesis inédita de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas, leída el 05-11-2020Machine learning (ML) applications have experienced an unprecedented growth over the last two decades. However, the ever increasing adoption of ML methodologies has revealed important security issues. Among these, vulnerabilities to adversarial examples, data instances targeted at fooling ML algorithms, are especially important. Examples abound. For instance, it is relatively easy to fool a spam detector simply misspelling spam words. Obfuscation of malware code can make it seem legitimate. Simply adding stickers to a stop sign could make an autonomous vehicle classify it as a merge sign. Consequences could be catastrophic. Indeed, ML is designed to work in stationary and benign environments. However, in certain scenarios, the presence of adversaries that actively manipulate input datato fool ML systems to attain benefits break such stationarity requirements. Training and operation conditions are not identical anymore. This creates a whole new class of security vulnerabilities that ML systems may face and a new desirable property: adversarial robustness. If we are to trust operations based on ML outputs, it becomes essential that learning systems are robust to such adversarial manipulations...Las aplicaciones del aprendizaje automático o machine learning (ML) han experimentado un crecimiento sin precedentes en las últimas dos décadas. Sin embargo, la adopción cada vez mayor de metodologías de ML ha revelado importantes problemas de seguridad. Entre estos, destacan las vulnerabilidades a ejemplos adversarios, es decir; instancias de datos destinadas a engañar a los algoritmos de ML. Los ejemplos abundan: es relativamente fácil engañar a un detector de spam simplemente escribiendo mal algunas palabras características de los correos basura. La ofuscación de código malicioso (malware) puede hacer que parezca legítimo. Agregando unos parches a una señal de stop, se podría provocar que un vehículo autónomo la reconociese como una señal de dirección obligatoria. Cómo puede imaginar el lector, las consecuencias de estas vulnerabilidades pueden llegar a ser catastróficas. Y es que el machine learning está diseñado para trabajar en entornos estacionarios y benignos. Sin embargo, en ciertos escenarios, la presencia de adversarios que manipulan activamente los datos de entrada para engañar a los sistemas de ML(logrando así beneficios), rompen tales requisitos de estacionariedad. Las condiciones de entrenamiento y operación de los algoritmos ya no son idénticas, quebrándose una de las hipótesis fundamentales del ML. Esto crea una clase completamente nueva de vulnerabilidades que los sistemas basados en el aprendizaje automático deben enfrentar y una nueva propiedad deseable: la robustez adversaria. Si debemos confiaren las operaciones basadas en resultados del ML, es esencial que los sistemas de aprendizaje sean robustos a tales manipulaciones adversarias...Fac. de Ciencias MatemáticasTRUEunpu