Simple individual-based models effectively represent Afrotropical forest bird movement in complex landscapes

Reliable estimates of dispersal rates between habitat patches (i.e. functional connectivity) are critical for predicting long-term effects of habitat fragmentation on population persistence. Connectivity measures are frequently derived from least cost path or graph-based approaches, despite the fact that these methods make biologically unrealistic assumptions. Individual-based models (IBMs) have been proposed as an alternative as they allow modelling movement behaviour in response to landscape resistance. However, IBMs typically require excessive data to be useful for management. Here, we test the extent to which an IBM requiring only an uncomplicated set of movement rules [the 'stochastic movement simulator' (SMS)] can predict animal movement behaviour in real-world landscapes. Movement behaviour of two forest birds, the Cabanis's greenbul Phyllastrephus cabanisi (a forest specialist) and the white-starred robin Pogonocichla stellata (a habitat generalist), across an Afrotropical matrix was simulated using SMS. Predictions from SMS were evaluated against a set of detailed movement paths collected by radiotracking homing individuals. SMS was capable of generating credible predictions of bird movement, although simulations were sensitive to the cost values and the movement rules specified. Model performance was generally highest when movement was simulated across low-contrasting cost surfaces and when virtual individuals were assigned low directional persistence and limited perceptual range. SMS better predicted movements of the habitat specialist than the habitat generalist, which highlights its potential to model functional connectivity when species movements are affected by the matrix. Synthesis and applications. Modelling the dispersal process with greater biological realism is likely to be critical for improving our predictive capability regarding functional connectivity and population persistence. For more realistic models to be widely applied, it is vital that their application is not overly complicated or data demanding. Here, we show that given relatively basic understanding of a species' dispersal ecology, the stochastic movement simulator represents a promising tool for estimating connectivity, which can help improve the design of functional ecological networks aimed at successful species conservation

Man Bites Mosquito: Understanding the Contribution of Human Movement to Vector-Borne Disease Dynamics

In metropolitan areas people travel frequently and extensively but often in highly structured commuting patterns. We investigate the role of this type of human movement in the epidemiology of vector-borne pathogens such as dengue. Analysis is based on a metapopulation model where mobile humans connect static mosquito subpopulations. We find that, due to frequency dependent biting, infection incidence in the human and mosquito populations is almost independent of the duration of contact. If the mosquito population is not uniformly distributed between patches the transmission potential of the pathogen at the metapopulation level, as summarized by the basic reproductive number, is determined by the size of the largest subpopulation and reduced by stronger connectivity. Global extinction of the pathogen is less likely when increased human movement enhances the rescue effect but, in contrast to classical theory, it is not minimized at an intermediate level of connectivity. We conclude that hubs and reservoirs of infection can be places people visit frequently but briefly and the relative importance of human and mosquito populations in maintaining the pathogen depends on the distribution of the mosquito population and the variability in human travel patterns. These results offer an insight in to the paradoxical observation of resurgent urban vector-borne disease despite increased investment in vector control and suggest that successful public health intervention may require a dual approach. Prospective studies can be used to identify areas with large mosquito populations that are also visited by a large fraction of the human population. Retrospective studies can be used to map recent movements of infected people, pinpointing the mosquito subpopulation from which they acquired the infection and others to which they may have transmitted it

The Impacts of Geography and Climate Change on Magdalenian Social Networks

abstract: This dissertation uses a comparative approach to investigate long-term human- environment interrelationships in times of climate change. It uses Geographical Information Systems and ecological models to reconstruct the Magdalenian (~20,000- 14,000 calibrated years ago) environments of the coastal mountainous zone of Cantabria (Northwest Spain) and the interior valleys of the Dordogne (Southwest France) to contextualize the social networks that could have formed during a time of high climate and resource variability. It simulates the formation of such networks in an agent-based model, which documents the processes underlying the formation of archaeological assemblages, and evaluates the potential impacts of climate-topography interactions on cultural transmission. This research then reconstructs the Magdalenian social networks visible through a multivariate statistical analysis of stylistic similarities among portable art objects. As these networks cannot be analyzed directly to infer social behavior, their characteristics are compared to the results of the agent-based model, which provide characteristics estimates of the Magdalenian latent social networks that most likely produced the empirical archaeological assemblage studied. This research contributes several new results, most of which point to the advantages of using an inter-disciplinary approach to the study of the archaeological record. It demonstrates the benefits of using an agent-based model to parse social data from long- term palimpsests. It shows that geographical and environmental contexts affect the structure of social networks, which in turn affects the transmission of ideas and goods that flow through it. This shows the presence of human-environment interactions that not only affected our ancestors’ reaction to resource insecurities, but also led them to innovate and improve the productivity of their own environment. However, it also suggests that such alterations may have reduced the populations’ resilience to strong climatic changes, and that the region with diverse resources provided a more stable and resilient environment than the region transformed to satisfy the immediate needs of its population.Dissertation/ThesisAppendix_D_Sites_DatesAppendix_E_Flowchart_Biome_ReconstructionAppendix_H_Flowchart_ABMAppendix_I_Flowchart_Social_NetworkAppendix_J_Portable_Art_ObjectsAppendix_J_Art_CharacteristicsAppendix_L_Poster_SummaryAppendix_A_Prehistoric_FaunaAppendix_B_Modern_PFT_DistributionAppendix_C_Prehistoric_PFT_DistributionDoctoral Dissertation Anthropology 201

Predators do not spill over from forest fragments to maize fields in a landscape mosaic in central Argentina

South America is undergoing a rapid and large scale conversion of natural habitats to cultivated land. Ecosystem services (ESs) still remain important but their level and sustainability are not known. We quantified predation intensity in an Argentinian agricultural landscape containing remnants of the original chaco serrano forest by using artificial sentinel prey. We sought to identify the main predators, and the effect of landscape configuration and maize phenology on predation pressure by invertebrate and vertebrate predators in this landscape. The most common predators were chewing insects (50.4% predation events), birds (22.7%), and ants (17.5%). Overall predation rates in forest fragments (41.6% d-1) were significantly higher than in the surrounding maize fields (21.5% d-1). Invertebrate predation was higher inside and at the edge of forest fragments than within fields, and did not change with increasing distance from a fragment edge, indicating a lack of spillover from the native habitat remnants to the cultivated matrix at the local scale. Distance from a continuous forest had a positive impact on predation by invertebrates and a negative impact on vertebrate predation.Fil: Ferrante, Marco. Aarhus University. Flakkebjerg Research Centre. Department of Agroecology; DinamarcaFil: González, Ezequiel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal; ArgentinaFil: Gabor L., Lovei. Aarhus University. Flakkebjerg Research Centre. Department of Agroecology; Dinamarc

Constant's Nomadic City

In the period 1954-1974 the Dutch artist known as Constant (Constant Nieuwenhuys, 1920-2005) elaborated a series of artworks and writings depicting a future urban agglomeration: New Babylon. Stretching over the whole globe, New Babylon hosts wandering individuals who freely move around the interactive space of the hyper-city without any fixed abode, or any reference to an established culture and habits. As the progressing automation of all productive activity allows the people to dispose of free time without any limitation, the main activities of New Babylonians are of a ludic kind. After a concise introduction, this article concentrates on the written work accompanying the project, by focusing on two recurring key terms: “nomadism” and “play”. These are the “travelling concepts” (Bal 2002) surfacing in a number of texts by other authors, diverse in scope, disciplinary field, and date of composition. Next to Deleuze and Guattari’s Nomadologie (Mille plateaux, 1980), Edouard Glissant’s Poétique de la Relation (1990), Johan Huizinga’s Homo Ludens (1938), the net of relations among texts outlined in this article comes to encompass also Dutch authors such as Menno ter Braak (1902-1940) and Simon Vinkenoog (1928-2009), with the aim of reconnecting New Babylon with its Dutch background, too often underplayed in scholarship on this subject. Urban planning, social trends and the development of counter-cultures in the Netherlands in the Fifties and Sixties offer a better insight into Constant’s internationally revered artwork