Regression with the Optimised Combination Technique

We consider the sparse grid combination technique for regression, which we regard as a problem of function reconstruction in some given function space. We use a regularised least squares approach, discretised by sparse grids and solved using the so-called combination technique, where a certain sequence of conventional grids is employed. The sparse grid solution is then obtained by addition of the partial solutions with combination coefficients dependent on the involved grids. This approach shows instabilities in certain situations and is not guaranteed to converge with higher discretisation levels. In this article we apply the recently introduced optimised combination technique, which repairs these instabilities. Now the combination coefficients also depend on the function to be reconstructed, resulting in a non-linear approximation method which achieves very competitive results. We show that the computational complexity of the improved method still scales only linear in regard to the number of data

Prediction of the functional properties of ceramic materials from composition using artificial neural networks

We describe the development of artificial neural networks (ANN) for the prediction of the properties of ceramic materials. The ceramics studied here include polycrystalline, inorganic, non-metallic materials and are investigated on the basis of their dielectric and ionic properties. Dielectric materials are of interest in telecommunication applications where they are used in tuning and filtering equipment. Ionic and mixed conductors are the subjects of a concerted effort in the search for new materials that can be incorporated into efficient, clean electrochemical devices of interest in energy production and greenhouse gas reduction applications. Multi-layer perceptron ANNs are trained using the back-propagation algorithm and utilise data obtained from the literature to learn composition-property relationships between the inputs and outputs of the system. The trained networks use compositional information to predict the relative permittivity and oxygen diffusion properties of ceramic materials. The results show that ANNs are able to produce accurate predictions of the properties of these ceramic materials which can be used to develop materials suitable for use in telecommunication and energy production applications

Solving optimisation problems in metal forming using Finite Element simulation and metamodelling techniques

During the last decades, Finite Element (FEM) simulations\ud of metal forming processes have become important\ud tools for designing feasible production processes. In more\ud recent years, several authors recognised the potential of\ud coupling FEM simulations to mathematical optimisation\ud algorithms to design optimal metal forming processes instead\ud of only feasible ones.\ud Within the current project, an optimisation strategy is being\ud developed, which is capable of optimising metal forming\ud processes in general using time consuming nonlinear\ud FEM simulations. The expression “optimisation strategy”\ud is used to emphasise that the focus is not solely on solving\ud optimisation problems by an optimisation algorithm, but\ud the way these optimisation problems in metal forming are\ud modelled is also investigated. This modelling comprises\ud the quantification of objective functions and constraints\ud and the selection of design variables.\ud This paper, however, is concerned with the choice for\ud and the implementation of an optimisation algorithm for\ud solving optimisation problems in metal forming. Several\ud groups of optimisation algorithms can be encountered in\ud metal forming literature: classical iterative, genetic and\ud approximate optimisation algorithms are already applied\ud in the field. We propose a metamodel based optimisation\ud algorithm belonging to the latter group, since approximate\ud algorithms are relatively efficient in case of time consuming\ud function evaluations such as the nonlinear FEM calculations\ud we are considering. Additionally, approximate optimisation\ud algorithms strive for a global optimum and do\ud not need sensitivities, which are quite difficult to obtain\ud for FEM simulations. A final advantage of approximate\ud optimisation algorithms is the process knowledge, which\ud can be gained by visualising metamodels.\ud In this paper, we propose a sequential approximate optimisation\ud algorithm, which incorporates both Response\ud Surface Methodology (RSM) and Design and Analysis\ud of Computer Experiments (DACE) metamodelling techniques.\ud RSM is based on fitting lower order polynomials\ud by least squares regression, whereas DACE uses Kriging\ud interpolation functions as metamodels. Most authors in\ud the field of metal forming use RSM, although this metamodelling\ud technique was originally developed for physical\ud experiments that are known to have a stochastic na-\ud ¤Faculty of Engineering Technology (Applied Mechanics group),\ud University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE, Enschede, The Netherlands,\ud email: [email protected]\ud ture due to measurement noise present. This measurement\ud noise is absent in case of deterministic computer experiments\ud such as FEM simulations. Hence, an interpolation\ud model fitted by DACE is thought to be more applicable in\ud combination with metal forming simulations. Nevertheless,\ud the proposed algorithm utilises both RSM and DACE\ud metamodelling techniques.\ud As a Design Of Experiments (DOE) strategy, a combination\ud of a maximin spacefilling Latin Hypercubes Design\ud and a full factorial design was implemented, which takes\ud into account explicit constraints. Additionally, the algorithm\ud incorporates cross validation as a metamodel validation\ud technique and uses a Sequential Quadratic Programming\ud algorithm for metamodel optimisation. To overcome\ud the problem of ending up in a local optimum, the\ud SQP algorithm is initialised from every DOE point, which\ud is very time efficient since evaluating the metamodels can\ud be done within a fraction of a second. The proposed algorithm\ud allows for sequential improvement of the metamodels\ud to obtain a more accurate optimum.\ud As an example case, the optimisation algorithm was applied\ud to obtain the optimised internal pressure and axial\ud feeding load paths to minimise wall thickness variations\ud in a simple hydroformed product. The results are satisfactory,\ud which shows the good applicability of metamodelling\ud techniques to optimise metal forming processes using\ud time consuming FEM simulations

Neural Network Ensembles for Time Series Prediction

Rapidly evolving businesses generate massive amounts of time-stamped data sequences and defy a demand for massively multivariate time series analysis. For such data the predictive engine shifts from the historical auto-regression to modelling complex non-linear relationships between multidimensional features and the time series outputs. In order to exploit these time-disparate relationships for the improved time series forecasting, the system requires a flexible methodology of combining multiple prediction models applied to multiple versions of the temporal data under significant noise component and variable temporal depth of predictions. In reply to this challenge a composite time series prediction model is proposed which combines the strength of multiple neural network (NN) regressors applied to the temporally varied feature subsets and the postprocessing smoothing of outputs developed to further reduce noise. The key strength of the model is its excellent adaptability and generalisation ability achieved through a highly diversified set of complementary NN models. The model has been evaluated within NISIS Competition 2006 and NN3 Competition 2007 concerning prediction of univariate and multivariate time-series. It showed the best predictive performance among 12 competitive models in the NISIS 2006 and is under evaluation within NN3 2007 Competition

Star Formation Rates for photometric samples of galaxies using machine learning methods

Star Formation Rates or SFRs are crucial to constrain theories of galaxy formation and evolution. SFRs are usually estimated via spectroscopic observations requiring large amounts of telescope time. We explore an alternative approach based on the photometric estimation of global SFRs for large samples of galaxies, by using methods such as automatic parameter space optimisation, and supervised Machine Learning models. We demonstrate that, with such approach, accurate multi-band photometry allows to estimate reliable SFRs. We also investigate how the use of photometric rather than spectroscopic redshifts, affects the accuracy of derived global SFRs. Finally, we provide a publicly available catalogue of SFRs for more than 27 million galaxies extracted from the Sloan Digital Sky survey Data Release 7. The catalogue is available through the Vizier facility at the following link ftp://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/pub/cats/J/MNRAS/486/1377

A hierarchical Mamdani-type fuzzy modelling approach with new training data selection and multi-objective optimisation mechanisms: A special application for the prediction of mechanical properties of alloy steels

In this paper, a systematic data-driven fuzzy modelling methodology is proposed, which allows to construct Mamdani fuzzy models considering both accuracy (precision) and transparency (interpretability) of fuzzy systems. The new methodology employs a fast hierarchical clustering algorithm to generate an initial fuzzy model efficiently; a training data selection mechanism is developed to identify appropriate and efficient data as learning samples; a high-performance Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) based multi-objective optimisation mechanism is developed to further improve the fuzzy model in terms of both the structure and the parameters; and a new tolerance analysis method is proposed to derive the confidence bands relating to the final elicited models. This proposed modelling approach is evaluated using two benchmark problems and is shown to outperform other modelling approaches. Furthermore, the proposed approach is successfully applied to complex high-dimensional modelling problems for manufacturing of alloy steels, using ‘real’ industrial data. These problems concern the prediction of the mechanical properties of alloy steels by correlating them with the heat treatment process conditions as well as the weight percentages of the chemical compositions

A simple microcontroller based digital lock-in amplifier for the detection of low level optical signals

Traditionally digital lock-in amplifiers sample the input signal at a rate much higher than the lock-in reference frequency and perform the lock-in algorithm with high-speed processors. We present a small and simple digital lock-in amplifier that uses a 20 bit current integrating analogue-to-digital converter interfaced to a microcontroller. The sample rate is set to twice the reference frequency placing the sampled lock-in signal at the Niquest frequency allowing the lock-in procedure to be performed with one simple algorithm. This algorithm consists of a spectral inversion technique integrated into a highly optimised low-pass filter. We demonstrate a system with a dynamic range of 103dB recovering signals up to 85dB below the interference

State-of-the-art in aerodynamic shape optimisation methods

Aerodynamic optimisation has become an indispensable component for any aerodynamic design over the past 60 years, with applications to aircraft, cars, trains, bridges, wind turbines, internal pipe flows, and cavities, among others, and is thus relevant in many facets of technology. With advancements in computational power, automated design optimisation procedures have become more competent, however, there is an ambiguity and bias throughout the literature with regards to relative performance of optimisation architectures and employed algorithms. This paper provides a well-balanced critical review of the dominant optimisation approaches that have been integrated with aerodynamic theory for the purpose of shape optimisation. A total of 229 papers, published in more than 120 journals and conference proceedings, have been classified into 6 different optimisation algorithm approaches. The material cited includes some of the most well-established authors and publications in the field of aerodynamic optimisation. This paper aims to eliminate bias toward certain algorithms by analysing the limitations, drawbacks, and the benefits of the most utilised optimisation approaches. This review provides comprehensive but straightforward insight for non-specialists and reference detailing the current state for specialist practitioners

A metamodel based optimisation algorithm for metal forming processes

Cost saving and product improvement have always been important goals in the metal\ud forming industry. To achieve these goals, metal forming processes need to be optimised. During\ud the last decades, simulation software based on the Finite Element Method (FEM) has significantly\ud contributed to designing feasible processes more easily. More recently, the possibility of\ud coupling FEM to mathematical optimisation algorithms is offering a very promising opportunity\ud to design optimal metal forming processes instead of only feasible ones. However, which\ud optimisation algorithm to use is still not clear.\ud In this paper, an optimisation algorithm based on metamodelling techniques is proposed\ud for optimising metal forming processes. The algorithm incorporates nonlinear FEM simulations\ud which can be very time consuming to execute. As an illustration of its capabilities, the\ud proposed algorithm is applied to optimise the internal pressure and axial feeding load paths\ud of a hydroforming process. The product formed by the optimised process outperforms products\ud produced by other, arbitrarily selected load paths. These results indicate the high potential of\ud the proposed algorithm for optimising metal forming processes using time consuming FEM\ud simulations